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Bet on a low-scoring total from Phillies’ offense in series opener against Rockies

The Phillies have struggled at the plate this season. Expect that to continue against the Rockies.

Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies strikes out with the bases loaded against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the ninth inning of a game at Citizens Bank Park on April 13, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Pirates 4-3.
Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies strikes out with the bases loaded against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the ninth inning of a game at Citizens Bank Park on April 13, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Pirates 4-3.Read moreRich Schultz / Getty Images
    by William Boor, Action Network
    Published 

Deservedly, the Phillies are heavy favorites in their Monday night matchup with the Rockies, but it isn’t exactly desirable to lay north of -275 on a baseball game.

I also don’t trust Philadelphia’s bullpen enough to play the Phillies on the run line (-1.5), and the total (8.5) looks about right.

So, where do we go for betting value on Monday’s Rockies vs. Phillies?

Let’s take a look and see where the most value lies in this matchup.

Rockies vs. Phillies odds

  1. Run Line: Rockies +1.5 (+110), Phillies -1.5 (-132)

  2. Money line: Rockies +225, Phillies -275

  3. Total: Over 8.5 (-122), Under 8.5 (+100)

Rockies vs. Phillies prediction: Analysis

Despite featuring an offense that boasts the likes of Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwaber and J.T. Realmuto, the Phillies haven’t scored six or more runs in 11 straight games.

In fact, they have cleared their run line for Monday just once in 16 games this season – a 9-4 win over the Reds on April 2.

If the Phillies are consistently going under this line, why is it set so high? Because Rockies starter Cal Quantrill has pitched to a 7.20 ERA through three starts.

His 4.89 xERA suggests he’s pitched a bit better than those results, but that’s still not a super encouraging number.

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But fading the Phillies on their run line is more than a vote of confidence in Quantrill.

Philadelphia simply isn’t hitting well.

The Phillies are averaging just 3.73 runs per game and their 87.8 mph average exit velocity ranks 26th in baseball.

Additionally, they rank in the bottom third of the league in both xBA (.237) and xSLG (.374) and their barrel rate (6.1%) is in the bottom 10%.

The other thing working in our favor here is that the Phillies, because they are heavily favored, likely won’t bat in the bottom of the ninth, meaning they should receive three fewer outs to work with as they attempt to clear this number.

Rockies vs. Phillies pick

Backing Quantrill and the Rockies’ pitching staff is scary, but Philadelphia’s bats have yet to show up this season.

At some point they will, but that doesn’t look to be coming soon.

  1. Pick: Phillies under 5.5 runs (-125 at BetMGM)

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