Joe Alt among two best over/under draft positions to make ahead of 2024 NFL draft

It’s the NFL Draft season!

Otherwise known as the only time we get to bet on NFL football during the offseason.

My favorite NFL draft market is the over/under draft position market, where you wager whether a draft prospect will go over or under a certain pick number.

It gives us all sorts of topics to dive into – team needs, draft stock, et cetera – and value if you beat the information market.

Here are my two favorite over/under draft position wagers as of Wednesday, April 24.

Notre Dame prospect Joe Alt is the consensus top offensive lineman in the 2024 draft and a day-one starter in any scheme.

Alt led all collegiate tackles in Pro Football Focus’s grades this past season, showing surprising balance and agility for a guy with such massive size. That showed in his NFL combine numbers, where he posted a 95th percentile result in the three-cone drill (7.3 seconds) and 20-yard shuttle drill (4.5 seconds).

He leverages his massive frame and his 34 ¼” arm length to keep pass rushers at bay while obliterating defenders in the run game.

If we were nit-picking, most analysts believe he shows more promise as a run-blocker, given he’s often passive in pass protection – he needs to anchor a bit quicker.

Still, Alt checks almost every box as a potential elite offensive tackle.

The mock draft market agrees, almost unilaterally mocking Alt to the Chargers with the fifth pick or the Titans with the seventh pick. Vegas Refund has tracked 33 mock drafts from trusted analysts across the industry, and 31 have Alt going to one of those two teams.

The most trusted draft analyst in the industry, NFL.com’s Peter Schrager, mocked Alt to the Titans in his official mock draft. Schrager missed one first-round pick in last season’s mock.

And Nashville is the perfect landing spot. The Titans have a second-year quarterback and explosive skill-position talent but could desperately use a towering tackle to protect his blind side. Alt and Peter Skoronski would give Tennessee an excellent young offensive line corps.

Many analysts believe that the Chargers plan on trading down. And many analysts believe that teams are eager to take JJ McCarthy in the top-five picks.

But I remain skeptical about McCarthy’s NFL prospects. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Jim Harbaugh wanted to provide extra protection for his superstar quarterback while boosting his offensive line—the Chargers ranked 14th in PFF’s Pass Block grades last season and 18th in Adjusted Offensive Line Yards. That takes away another potential player who could be drafted in front of Alt, who The Athletic has graded as this year’s fifth-overall NFL prospect.

Ultimately, I’d project there’s a 95% probability that Alt will be drafted among the top seven picks. Sure, he goes to the Titans in most scenarios, but there’s an added chance he goes between picks four and six.

So, the juice is high on this wager, but there’s more than enough data to support the position.

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Adonai Mitchell was a big name in last year’s transfer portal. His eventual move to Texas was considered a considerable grab for Steve Sarkisian and Co., especially for reaching Quinn Ewers’ ceiling.

Mitchell never entirely panned out.

Last year ended up being his most productive college football season, where Mitchell snagged 55 balls for over 800 yards.

However, he still ranked third on the Longhorns in yards per route run, ranking 100th out of 121 qualified wide receivers in that statistic. He posted a four-reception performance in only four games and averaged only 60 receiving yards per game. He finished his collegiate career with only three 100-yard games.

Mitchell has flashed greatness. He combines speed with length, explosiveness and catch-point skills. He’s good off the line of scrimmage and can separate at the top of routes. He destroyed Kansas in late September, catching 10 balls for 141 yards and a score.

But Mitchell was never dominant. He was never the best receiver on his team.

Here’s a list of college-to-NFL receivers who averaged under 85 yards per game in their best collegiate season:

Not exactly the most glamorous list.

There have also been questions surrounding his commitment and work ethic. He’s not the most detail-oriented receiver, and he’s shown questionable effort on routes where he isn’t the first option.

It could be worthless, anecdotal information, but it’s started to tank his draft stock.

Mitchell is selected past the 28th pick in 25 of Vegas Refund’s 33 tracked mock drafts, implying -300 odds for Over 27.5. Schrager mocked him to the Bills with pick 28, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fall lower come draft night, especially if “poor work ethic” becomes a talking point.

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