Back top-seeded Houston to win and cover against Duke in Friday’s Sweet 16 matchup

Duke will be the trendy upset pick in this year’s Sweet 16.

But I’m not so sure.

In fact, I believe Houston’s aggressive physicality will shut down the Blue Devils from the outset.

(Odds via BetMGM)

(9:39 p.m. ET, CBS)

You don’t beat Houston with on-ball screens and post feeds.

Kelvin Sampson’s aggressive blitz defense sends two-to-the-ball on every ball screen while rotating aggressively toward the paint in rim denial. The Cougars are the nation’s most physical and talented defense, and as such, they rank top-six nationally in ball-screen PPP (.59) and post-up PPP (.62) allowed.

The way to beat Houston is with crisp perimeter passing and lights-out weak-side shooting. You have to work around and over the Cougars, not through them.

But Duke’s offense is built around Kyle Filipowski in the high-post screen-and-roll game. He’s an excellent pick-and-pop and hard-roll guy, but he’s particularly effective in the short-roll, hitting Duke’s perimeter shooters when the defense comes down on him – he’s the reason Duke shot 40% from 3 in ACC play.

However, again, you don’t beat Houston with on-ball screens and post feeds.

If Duke could get the ball to Filipowski in the high post, the Devils could generate enough open perimeter shots to win.

But they won’t ever get the ball into the post, and if they do, Houston will overwhelm him, forcing him to miss reads or make mistakes.

Specifically, Duke is not that physical. Filipowski and the Blue Devils are a finesse team that will get bullied by overwhelming squads.

We saw that twice against North Carolina this season and last year in the NCAA Tournament against Tennessee.

And we saw it in this year’s first round against Vermont.

Vermont has a sketchy ball-screen coverage defense, but the Catamounts have two aggressive, physical, Power Conference-level defenders at the one and the five in Shamir Bogues and Ileri Ayo-Faleye.

Those two alone bully-balled and shut down Filipowski, holding him to three points on a single shot attempt. The Devils won by 17, but they scored only 64 points on .92 PPP and posted their sixth-worst single-game eFG% (48.9%) performance of the season.

This may go without saying, but Houston will be a different animal. The Cougars are more aggressive, far more physical, and an infinitely better ball-screen coverage defense.

» READ MORE: Bet on UConn to win and cover against San Diego State in NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 matchup

What do you think is going to happen?

Houston’s aggressive defense opens the glass to second-chance opportunities, and the Cougars will often foul. Texas A&M was able to hang with Houston because the Aggies are dominant on the offensive boards and draw fouls at a crazy rate.

Duke is good in those areas but not elite, and I don’t trust the soft Devils to beat Houston on 50/50 balls.

If Duke goes crazy from deep as it did against James Madison, then the Devils could win. But I expect regression in that area after they shot 14-for-28 from 3 (50%) in the second round, and Houston is much better at closing out on shooters than the mid-major Dukes.

On the other end of the court, I’m unsure where Houston generates efficient offense. The Cougars’ shot selection can be shaky and prone to offensive droughts.

But from a schematic and physicality perspective, I don’t see how Duke scores. The Blue Devils might not reach 50 points.

Because of that, I trust Houston’s defense will control the game for 40 minutes. And perhaps Jamal Shead will create off-the-bounce against Duke’s sometimes-shaky perimeter ball-screen coverage.

I expect Houston to win by 10 and advance to the Elite Eight. Wager accordingly.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.