Joel Embiid’s health will be critical to Sixers, who have modest odds to win the NBA title

Despite finishing tied for the fifth-best record (47-35) in the Eastern Conference, the 76ers find themselves needing to advance to the playoffs through the play-in tournament.

A three-way tie with the Magic and Pacers dropped Philadelphia to the seventh seed because it had the worst divisional record (8-8) of the three teams.

But given how well the 76ers played at the end of the season, they might have finished ahead of Orlando in the divisional record tiebreaker had the schedule fallen differently.

The 76ers won eight straight games to close the season, but only two were against divisional opponents.

Philadelphia’s recent success coincided with the return of Joel Embiid, who missed more than two months with a torn meniscus in his left knee.

Without their reigning MVP, the 76ers went just 16-27, but their record was 31-8 when he played.

Therefore, it’s not a stretch to say the 76ers would’ve been a much higher seed had Embiid been healthy for the majority of the season.

The key word here, of course, is if he had been healthy.

Thus, when assessing any futures involving the 76ers, bettors must factor in the chances of Embiid staying healthy for the entirety of the playoffs.

While it’s one thing to consider how the 76ers performed with Embiid on the court, we can also refine our scope to include only games against teams with a winning percentage of .500 or better.

Philadelphia went 14-4 in this spot, winning 77.8% of its games.

And since the 76ers are unlikely to have a home-court advantage as a lower seed, winning on the road will be critical to their ability to advance in the postseason.

It’s worth noting that the 76ers went 7-0 on the road with Embiid when facing teams with a winning percentage of .500 or better.

But again, can bettors count on Embiid being healthy?

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With under two minutes remaining In the first half of the penultimate regular-season game against Orlando, Embiid looked like he re-injured his left knee after making a three-foot floater inside the lane.

The Philadelphia center couldn’t even get back down the court on defense and quickly retreated to the locker room at the first opportunity.

Embiid did return to warm up for the second half and moved gingerly initially. He played 15 of the final 24 minutes in the game, shooting 4-for-11 from the floor while scoring 12 points.

Overall, he scored 32 points in 32 minutes on 10-of-23 shooting and had a plus-minus of +22 in the Sixers’ 125-113 victory.

Even with the 76ers desperate to finish in the top six, they opted to sit Embiid on the final day of the regular season against the Nets. Philadelphia wound up routing Brooklyn, 107-86, so Embiid’s services weren’t required on the day.

However, had the 76ers avoided the play-in tournament, Embiid would’ve had more than a week to rest his balky knee.

If the 76ers need two cracks in the play-in tournament to advance to the first round, Embiid could play as many as three games in five days.

Against the No. 1 seeds in each conference, Boston and Oklahoma City, the 76ers went 3-1 with Embiid on the floor.

Although Philadelphia made strides to improve its roster by adding Buddy Hield and Cameron Payne at the trade deadline, the 76ers will only go as far as Embiid can take them.

And given his injury history, there’s no guarantee he can make it through this postseason.

The 76ers are right there with any team in the league when Embiid is healthy.

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There’s clearly a discount on their futures price because of where they finished in the East. At this point, if you’re going to back the 76ers, you might as well go for the most value and take a small slice of them at DraftKings to win it all at +2200.

Unfortunately, if history is any indication of what we can expect, injuries will likely impede Embiid at some point during this postseason.

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