Sixers will enter free agency having come full circle. Can they avoid going around again?

Before we take a dive into the things that the Sixers need to do in order to do what they have not done in the Joel Embiid Era, let’s establish a jumping-off point.

Winning in the playoffs is hard. Extraordinarily hard. When you look around the NBA, you’ll see that there are essentially three formulas, all heavily reliant on variables that are only slightly more predictable than chance.

Method 1: Buy a franchise in a destination city and recruit two or three superstars to come join you.

Method 2: Draft an MVP-caliber superstar and spend years grinding out the perfect supporting cast via forward-looking trades, bang-for-the-buck free-agent signings, and diamond-in-the-rough draft picks. In the process, perhaps add another superstar to the mix.

Method 3: Assemble a team that happens to hit its stride in a season when all the Method 1 and Method 2 teams are injured or underperforming or gearing up for the offseason.

Method 1 is dated to the point of being anachronistic. It didn’t work in Brooklyn. It hasn’t worked in Phoenix or Los Angeles, unless you count the Lakers’ fraudulent bubble title and every Clippers season over the last decade-and-a-half.

Method 3 can only take you so far. Besides, it is neither actionable nor desirable. Ten years from now, will we really look back and remember the Atlanta Hawks as everything the Sixers weren’t simply because they happened to make a conference finals in a season when the world was still trying to reestablish its circadian rhythms following a year of pandemic lockdown?

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Method 2 is the only legitimate aspiration. It is the formula that carried the Spurs and Warriors to SuperTeam status. It is the formula that finally led to titles in Denver and Milwaukee. It is the formula that has made the Celtics this year’s team to beat in the East.

Joel Embiid gets it. He’s seen it firsthand. After the Sixers’ Game 6 loss to the Knicks on Thursday, the reigning MVP provided a tidy summary of the organization’s post-Process roster management.

“There’s never been any continuity,” Embiid said. “You look at Denver last year. They’ve been together for, what, five, six, seven years? Golden State, they’ve been together for a long time. So, at some point, if you really want to win, you’ve got to have some key guys. And then, here and there, you can add a bunch of guys and just learn how to play together with each other and grow together.”

Embiid’s words are so obviously true that it isn’t even worth the space to rehash the concrete examples of which he speaks. We’ve recited them so many times that they are almost a ritualistic incantation. Jimmy Butler, Mikal Bridges, etc., etc.

The irony is that the Sixers are finally at the point where they can go back and do it all over. The irony is that they actually do have, in Embiid’s words, the couple of key guys who can serve as the foundation as a championship team. Tyrese Maxey is who the Sixers thought they had in Markelle Fultz and Ben Simmons. Their mistake back then was twofold: One, they thought they needed to add a veteran superstar. That wasn’t necessarily the incorrect mindset, provided that they were right about Simmons and/or Fultz. But therein lies the most difficult aspect of roster building in the NBA: You’ve got to be right.

There is an added dimension now. Daryl Morey faces a constraint that did not face Bryan Colangelo or Elton Brand or whoever was making the (tragically) fateful decisions in between. There is a clock.

Embiid is 30 years old, fresh off knee surgery and a third straight postseason in which his health was a limiting factor. He has two years left on his contract in a league in which contractual obligations are trifling concerns for superstars in search of a championship. The Sixers’ other four starters are all free agents. Maxey will be back on a maximum contract that is probably already printed and awaiting the proper time to sign. Everyone else is a question mark.

The Sixers have more flexibility now than they’ve had since Embiid’s first couple of years in the league. They could have upward of $65 million in salary-cap room, enough to accommodate any contract in the league. They have a first-round pick in this year’s draft, plus three more picks that are available to trade.

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The symmetry extends all the way to the fact that Butler could again be available (although that remains pure speculation).

The big problem is the one that has consistently faced the Sixers. Their supply of assets far exceeds the supply of talent that would make them a definitively better team. This year’s free-agent class is remarkably weak, to the point that Tobias Harris is likely to rank among its top 10 targets, and perhaps one of its most available.

It speaks volumes that the names the Sixers could realistically consider are the same names they had in mind back when Brett Brown was “star-hunting.” LeBron James, Paul George, James Harden, Butler via trade.

The options are so lackluster that it may end up making sense for the Sixers to explore a Fourth Way. Re-sign Kelly Oubre Jr., overpay for youth and athleticism and complementary skill sets on the free-agent market, draft a collegiate big man (Yves Missi from Baylor?) or bench guard (Mark Sears from Alabama?) who has a chance to contribute right away.

We’ll have plenty of time to dive into the potential scenarios after Morey speaks to the media on Monday.

For now, let’s remember the fundamental point. Winning is difficult.

The Bucks are coming off back-to-back first-round exits. They’ve been to the conference finals twice in Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 11 seasons. The Clippers have been there once in a 13-year stretch when they’ve won 50-plus games six times and finished above .500 every year. Luka Dončić’s only trip to the conference finals ended in five games. Devin Booker has been there once in nine years.

The Sixers? They are coming off a performance that was more impressive than any postseason since their loss to the Raptors in 2019. The bar is higher than that, obviously. But reality is what it is.