A few things worth considering from Sixers-Raptors Game 6 | David Murphy

One of the stats that drew considerable attention in the immediate aftermath of the Sixers’ 112-101 win over the Raptors in Game 6 was Joel Embiid’s plus-minus. And for good reason.

When Embiid was on the court, the Sixers outscored the Raptors, 101-61, a 40-point differential that not only is the highest individual mark of this year’s playoffs, but also is the 11th highest in any postseason since 2000-01 (according to Basketball-Reference.com’s data). Remarkably, the Sixers scored all but 11 of their 112 points in the 35-plus minutes that Embiid was on the court. Meanwhile, the Raptors scored 40 of their 101 when he was off it.

But here’s what really bonkers: On a night when Embiid was a plus-40 in 35 minutes of action, the Raptors actually outscored the Sixers starters by three points in the 12-plus minutes that they were on the court together. In other words, Embiid was plus-43 in the 23-plus minutes that he was on the court with at least one Sixers sub. That’s even harder to believe when you consider that the big man himself finished with a rather pedestrian 17 points, 11 of which came from the foul line or three-point line.

As we look ahead to Game 7 on Sunday night, a lot of what needs to be unpacked exists within that series of facts:

1) There’s a good chance the Sixers are going to need Embiid to be even better in Game 7.

I realize how ludicrous that might sound after I just spent 200 words marveling at Embiid’s plus-minus figure. But plus-minus is a metric that comes packaged with a lot of statistical noise.

Consider the 12 players who have finished a playoff game at plus-40 or better since 2001. While that group includes a handful of your classic playoff-style isolation players in LeBron James (plus-46 against the Celtics in 2017), Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose (plus-46 and plus-41 against the Bucks in 2015), and Russell Westbrook (plus-41 against the Warriors in 2016), it also includes players such as Trevor Ariza (plus-40 against the Jazz in 2018), Boris Diaw (plus-41 against the Jazz in 2012), and Kendrick Perkins (plus-41 against the Heat in 2010).

With all due respect to Diaw and Perkins, who scored 11 and 13 points, respectively, in those performances, it’s awfully tough to see the Sixers winning many games in which their undisputed bell cow shoots just 3-for-11 from two-point range. Consider this: Of the 175 career games in which Embiid had logged at least 10 minutes before Thursday, he’d scored fewer than four two-point field goals just 14 times. Of those 14 games, the Sixers had lost nine.

Assuming that Kawhi Leonard returns to his superhuman form after a couple of outings in which he combined to shoot 0-for-8 from three-point range, the Sixers’ surest path to victory is with the version of Embiid that they had in Game 3, when he finished with 33 points, 10 rebounds and five blocks and shot 9-for-18 from the field and 12-for-13 from the foul line.

2) The combination of Tobias Harris and JJ Redick needs to be an advantage for the Sixers.

Entering the series, Sixers coach Brett Brown could barely go a couple of sentences without mentioning that the Raptors were the best three-point shooting team in the league after their trade for Marc Gasol. So it’s interesting that Game 6 was the third time this series that Toronto shot less than 28 percent from three-point range (and the fifth time in six games that they hit less than 34 percent). That’s a significant factor for a team that attempts as many threes as the Raptors do (they’ve finished with more attempts than the Sixers in four of the six games).

But the Sixers haven’t exactly shot the lights out. In particular, it’d be a huge boost if Tobias Harris could find it within himself to get back to the knockdown form he showed during his early days with the Sixers. In six games this series, Harris is shooting just .263 from three-point range, with 1.7 makes on 6.3 shots per game. That might sound like a downside for the Sixers, but, along with Embiid, it’s actually one of the biggest sources of upside for the Sixers. Harris is a good shooter. A priority for Brown should be to get him comfortable early. He seems much more comfortable when he gets into a rhythm in the short mid-range.

3) The Sixers need the Raptors to miss shots.

Too obvious? Sure. But Toronto coach Nick Nurse mentioned it repeatedly in his press conference after Game 6, and, frankly, it was one of the big reasons that Ben Simmons looked the way he did.

The Sixers are a different team in transition than they are in the half-court, and the only way to play in transition is to have the other team miss shots. The Sixers can do other things to get Simmons where he is most comfortable, including pushing the pace after makes. But the fact is, the Sixers’ three wins have come in the three games in which the Raptors have shot their lowest percentage from the field.

Whatever happens, it will be fun.