Forget closer (for now), Phils have Velasquez where he belongs | David Murphy
Vince Velasquez still needs to develop, and he can do that better as a starter
ALL THE characteristics are there, aren't they? The frame, the demeanor, the fastball that flares up when the adrenaline flows. It's easy to imagine an eighth or ninth inning with Vince Velasquez on the mound. It just isn't easy for him to get there in his current role.
Friday marks one year to the day that Velasquez struck out 16 of the 30 batters he faced in a three-hit shutout in his Citizens Bank Park debut. The performance was enough to make you question some of the scouting reports that had him pegged as a future late-innings reliever when the Phillies acquired him from the Astros in the Ken Giles trade. Five days earlier, in his first start with the club, he'd held the Mets scoreless for six innings on a relatively clean 99 pitches.
Now? Chatter never really goes away, I suppose. It just waits for another opening.
No doubt, Velasquez has offered it a chasm. In the 24 games Velasquez has started since last April's gem, the hard-throwing righthander has made it to the seventh inning in just two. Not among the exceptions was his most recent outing, a 5-4 loss to the Mets in which he allowed 10 baserunners in five innings. In two starts this season, he has thrown 194 pitches in nine total innings. In last year's shutout, he threw 113.
But any thought of moving Velasquez to the bullpen is, like his usual exit, entirely premature. The Phillies have given no indication they are ready to consider such a move, but it's a question I've been asked more than once over the last couple of months, so here it is entered into the public record: No. Not now. Not soon. Not even this season.
Barring a complete meltdown and the need for intensive remedial work, Velasquez is right where he - and any other pitcher with less than two years of service and his level of potential - belongs. He's a young pitcher who needs to develop consistent command of his fastball. And you don't do that by moving to a place where he'll throw fewer of them.
You can muck it up with all kinds of secondary concerns, from his changeup to his pitch sequencing. The reality, though, is that anybody who sits in the mid-90s with that kind of movement will be able to get by regardless of what else he throws as long as he regularly puts that fastball where he wants it to go. That, and little else, has been his problem this season.
There were times Wednesday when Cameron Rupp looked like a guy attempting to catch a bug while sitting on a toilet, Velasquez's fastball pulling his crouch to the opposite side of the plate. Although he walked four and hit a fifth with a pitch, command inside the strike zone was his biggest struggle. There are a lot of nights when a pitcher with his fastball can survive with that MO, but against a lineup of fastball mashers as the Mets have put together, a mistake that enters the heart of the zone will exit much faster, regardless of the velocity at which it came in.
The primary reason those 2006-09 Phillies offenses were so good was their ability to square up pitchers such as Velasquez. The primary reason last year's Phillies offense was so bad was their inability to do so. Small ball has its place, but nothing puts more pressure on a pitcher than a lineup that doesn't let you get away with mistakes. The inverse is also true. Nothing puts more pressure on a lineup than a pitcher who hits his spots with his fastball. It's why Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee so often looked like machines. Follow that continuum to its opposite end and you find the guys whose success never matches their stuff.
It's easy to see, in real life, or on the stat sheet. Of the 27 balls Velasquez has allowed in play this season, just six have been on the ground. Of the remainder, three have gone for home runs. Although he's always been a fly-ball pitcher, that's a rather ridiculous extreme. But that's what happens when hard-thrown balls that are supposed to be inside wind up crossing the heart of the plate.
There is some solid logic underlying the belief that Velasquez's value will end up coming as a setup man or closer. The extra life that comes from pitching in shorter stretches might be enough to mitigate some of those location mistakes. Some mentalities are built to pitch multiple times per week.
But, with few very few exceptions, even the greatest of relievers is in his role only because he failed to become an adequate starter. Look at what the market has to say: This year, Aroldis Chapman signed for five years and $86 million. Last year, Mike Leake signed for five and $80 million. Chapman is one of the most dominant and versatile relievers in the history of the game. Leake is the Cardinals' No. 3 or No. 4 starter.
By being patient with Velasquez, the Phillies have nothing to lose and a whole lot of asset appreciation to gain. Andrew Miller was 27 and in his fifth year of big-league service when he moved to the bullpen full time. Wade Davis was 26. Zach Britton was 26. Zach McAllister was 27. Velasquez will turn 25 in June.
Can you picture him as a closer? Sure, but for the foreseeable future, it's a waste of time.
@ByDavidMurphy