Phillies will adjust if more hitters try to beat the shift

CINCINNATI - Larry Bowa, like any good baseball man, watched baseball this week when the Phillies did not play. He saw Chase Headley, the Yankees third baseman, beat the shift three times with a bunt and two well-placed ground-ball singles. He caught highlights of Boston catcher Sandy Leon dropping a bunt against the shift and then scoring on a pivotal two-run homer by the next batter.

The Phillies were one of the least shift-happy teams in 2016. They will adhere to that strategy again in 2017, and Bowa wonders if more teams will follow.

"I just think these hitters now, they keep hitting into a shift," said Bowa, the Phillies bench coach and infield czar. "Eventually, they're going to say, 'This is stupid.' Even if I go 0 for 4 with four bunts, it's already planted a seed that they can't [shift] anymore. But some guys just keep whacking it."

Three days of baseball spawned numerous online think pieces about the future of the shift; a clearer picture will require more action. There were 28,072 shifts last season recorded by Baseball Info Solutions - more than double the amount from 2014. Baseball is prone to groupthink, and when a few smart teams employed the shift and played the percentages, most duplicated the practice.

The Phillies shifted 502 times in 2016, ranking 27th in the majors, according to FanGraphs. The average team shifted 935 times. Of the 12 teams that shifted the least, six qualified for the postseason. None of the 10 teams who shifted the most in 2016 played in the postseason.

Bowa and the coaching staff consider a few factors when deciding to shift an opposing hitter. The Phillies' analytics department supplies the staff with data on hitters' trends. They do not tell the coaches whom to shift against, but they issue recommendations. Some percentages, Bowa said, are difficult to ignore. That is when he'll order a shift.

In their 4-3 win on opening day, the Phillies shifted six times against 37 batters faced. Bowa expects to shift at a similar rate this season as last. Data from Inside Edge indicated that the Phillies prevented 36 hits while in the shift but permitted 34 that were aided by a shift. So the difference was, essentially, negligible.

If more hitters adjust in 2017, some shifts could be exposed. It could require a new blueprint. That is what Bowa expects.

"Overall," Bowa said, "you'll see a decrease."

The forecast is not ideal for Thursday afternoon - think temperatures in the 40s with strong winds and a steady drizzle - but that is how Clay Buchholz will begin his tenure with the Phillies. The Phillies made a $13.5 million wager on Buchholz, hoping he could at least mimic Jeremy Hellickson as a stabilizing presence.

His uneven spring performance added a bit of doubt to the equation.

"I look for him to have the same kind of year Hellickson did," Phillies manager Pete Mackanin said. "He's a similar-type pitcher. He relies on his command and control. When he mixes pitches and changes speeds, that's when he's effective. He can be as effective as Hellickson. That's what I'm hoping for."

Roy Sievers, who spent parts of three years with the Phillies and homered 318 times in 17 seasons, died Monday. He was 90. Sievers was the American League rookie of the year in 1949. He was with the Phillies from 1962-64. . . . Mackanin said he planned to start Brock Stassi, Andrew Knapp, and Daniel Nava in Thursday's finale. "I can't let them go 10 days without getting into a game," Mackanin said.