'Hurricane' Schwartz: Matthew could devastate big swath of Florida

Unfortunately, Matthew has been strengthening all night and into the morning. Hurricane Hunters keep finding lower pressures in the eye, and stronger winds around it. If it stays at least a Category 4 (>130 mph) and tracks as predicted, it will be the FIRST hurricane that strong to hit within 100 miles of Cape Canaveral in recorded history! This is an area that rarely gets a direct hit of any hurricane, let alone a major one.

THIS TRACK MEANS EVEN MORE TROUBLE

A hurricane that hits straight on will cause a lot of damage over a relatively small area, compared to what Matthew will do. Tracking right along the coast will mean that more than 200 miles of coastline could get 50+ mph winds, torrential rain, and storm surge. It means a lot more people will need to be evacuated than in a straight-on hit. Since at least part of the circulation of Matthew will remain over the warm ocean, it won't weaken nearly as much as a normal storm would at landfall. It could stay a hurricane all the way up the Florida coast and even into Georgia and/or South Carolina.

ON A PERSONAL NOTE

This is going to be devastating to a large area of Florida. It is a state I cherish, having lived in three different parts of it over the years (Miami, Fort Myers, and Palm Beach Gardens). The beauty of the beaches and modern buildings is incredible. Some of the most amazing homes I've ever seen are right on, or very close to the beaches. The boats are beyond description. And the people, especially the retirees, are some of the happiest I've ever met. Life is great in the sunshine state.

But a disaster is going to happen soon. It's still not clear just how bad it will be. If the eye of Matthew actually hits the coast, and it is a strong Category 4 or even a Cat 5, an enormous part of the state will suffer catastrophic damage. The people in its path are in my prayers. They might need them from you, too.

We all remember Sandy. It was the worst natural disaster in the history of part of New Jersey and New York. But the area damaged was much less than the area (and coastline) that's about to get hit in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Most of that area has never experienced a storm like this.

THE TURN-AND EVEN POSSIBLY A LOOP BACK TO FLORIDA?

The chance of Matthew tracking all the way up the coast toward us is close to zero. The cold front that will pass through Saturday (bringing showers to our area) will cause Matthew to turn to the right. Then, the HIGH pressure that builds over our area behind the front will help force Matthew more to the south. The latest "Spaghetti Models" show many solutions that have Matthew continuing to turn right until it makes almost a full circle-perhaps hitting the Florida East Coast AGAIN! And then, perhaps even into the Gulf of Mexico. That's a very unusual track, but such "loops" have happened before. But even if that does happen, Matthew is not likely to be a major hurricane. Still, getting hit twice by the same storm would be a bit too much …

The complete loop and second Florida hit, followed by moving into the Gulf of Mexico are perfectly illustrated by the GEFS model. This is the American GFS model run several times (an "ensemble").

Stay tuned for more updates.

Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz

Chief Meteorologist

NBC10 Philadelphia