March pending sales down 20% over year ago

The National Association of Realtors' national pending-sale index, based on agreements of sale signed for existing homes during a month, fell 20.1 percent in March from the same month in 2007.

The February-to-March decline was just 1.0 percent, the NAR said yesterday.

The Philadelphia region saw a 20.2 percent decline in its pending-sale index in March over 2007 and a 4.6 percent drop from February to March, according to Prudential Fox & Roach's HomExpert report, which is based on data from Trend Multiple Listing Service.

Sales agreements typically close in 60 to 90 days.

"Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.

Steve Storti, Prudential Fox & Roach senior vice president for marketing, said the region was "slowly seeing adjustments from the mortgage credit crunch."

"With the increased level of inventory, there are more homes for buyers, especially first-time buyers, to evaluate," he said.

Art Herling, regional vice president of Long & Foster Real Estate, acknowledged that March "was tough."

"April was much better," he said. "There is still too much overpriced inventory."

The most encouraging data were from the Northeast, which, while sustaining a 15.4 percent hit from March 2007 was the only region to show a month-to-month increase - 12.5 percent.

"At least we can take heart that the Northeast pending-home-sales' index was the highest since last July," said Joel L. Naroff, chief economist for Commerce Bancorp Inc., of Cherry Hill.

The Northeast market and Philadelphia are holding up better than elsewhere, agreed Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com, of West Chester.

"This goes to Philadelphia's better job market and less overbuilding and speculation in boom times," Zandi said.

Zandi said he believed that sales should hit bottom this spring "as increased lending by the FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac kick in this summer and fall." House-price declines should also establish better affordability.

Net new-home sales in seven suburban counties surrounding Philadelphia were down 35 percent in March from March 2007 - 416 units vs. 640, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence reported.

"Sales are obviously slow," said Wayne Norris, Hanley Wood's regional sales director, but, "in my opinion, the Philadelphia region is not faced with most issues the higher-profile markets are dealing with."

One thing to note: Lower-priced attached units - condos and townhouses - have a 43 percent share of the new-home market outside the city - an 8 percentage-point increase over 2007, he said.

County

March

March

Percent

2008         2007         change

Philadelphia         94.0         122.68      -23.4

Bucks               60.9         87.28         -30.2

Chester               62.0         79.02         -21.5

Delaware             72.4         101.67      -28.9

Montgomery         73.0         88.96         -17.9

Pa. suburbs         75.5         99.1         -23.8

Burlington            60.0         76.49         -21.6

Camden               60.9         78.94         -22.9

Gloucester            76.4         78.18         -2.30

N.J. suburbs         65.7         77.87         -15.6

Eight counties         70.6         88.49         -20.2

SOURCE: Prudential Fox & Roach HomExpert