That Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow on Monday wasn't in the least surprising; it would have been surprising if he hadn't.
According to data from the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, Phil has seen his shadow on Feb. 2 101 times in the 118 years for which records are available.
That's more than 85 percent of the Groundhog Days. As we all know, according to folklore tradition, when Pennsylvania's most-famous rodent sees his shadow that signifies six more weeks of winter across the nation.
And he does all this without consulting the European Center or Global Forecast System models, or the El Nino Southern Oscillation index.
As far as we know, the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club doesn't have a verification system, but the government's National Climatic Data Center took a crack at scoring Phil's skills.
The results were not flattering. By its scoring system – and it is imperfect – Phil has nailed it only three times in the last 20 years – and hasn't had a hit since 1999.
Most recently, after he saw his shadow in 2012, both February and March finished above normal.
NCDC used February and March temperatures. A more-precise measurement would have been confined to the Feb. 2-March 16 period, but the government keeps score by month.
Still, the evidence is clear that when it comes to long-range forecasting, Phil is clueless; in that sense, one might be tempted to say he's only human.