Betting Commercial Content. 21+. Provided by Action Network, official betting partner of The Inquirer.49ers, Chiefs remain favorites to win Super Bowl; Falcons odds make big jump during free agency
Kirk Cousins signing with the Falcons in free agency significantly improved their Super Bowl odds.
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The start of the NFL calendar for the 2024-25 season begins at 4 p.m. ET Wednesday. It also coincides with the beginning of free agency, when teams can officially ink deals with unsigned players.
However, players who were already pending free agents were permitted to begin contacting potential suitors on Monday to come to terms on contracts.
As a result, we’ve already seen plenty of NFL stars come off the board and find new homes.
We’ll revisit the early 2025 Super Bowl odds and assess how some of these free-agent moves impacted the betting landscape.
Super Bowl odds then and now
Minutes after the Kansas City Chiefs won a second straight Super Bowl title, FanDuel released its odds for Super Bowl 59. In the chart below, you can see how the odds have shifted in the market for some teams in a month’s time.
While these odds will continue to change, nothing impacts the betting market more than news involving a top-tier quarterback. We often see this during the NFL season when a starting quarterback is injured and ruled out for a game.
The biggest news in free agency this week was Kirk Cousins’s agreement with the Atlanta Falcons on a four-year, $180 million deal, with $100 million guaranteed.
As a result, the Falcons’ Super Bowl odds have been slashed from +5000 to +3000. Conversely, the Vikings’ championship odds have increased from +4000 to +7500.
Cousins was obviously the biggest name on the board. He was even in the conversation last season for NFL MVP before suffering a season-ending injury.
Russell Wilson’s agreement to sign with Pittsburgh slashed the Steelers’ Super Bowl odds from +10000 to +7500, and the Broncos are now tied with the Commanders as the third-longest shot on the board (+15000), ahead of only the Patriots (+17000) and Panthers (+30000).
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Running back free agents are vastly overvalued
The other position where there’s been a fair amount of movement this week has been at running back.
Former Giants all-purpose back Saquon Barkley will head to a division rival after agreeing to a three-year, $37.75 million ($26M guaranteed) deal with the Eagles. Philly also landed edge rusher Bryce Huff (three years, $51.1 million).
However, the two splash signings only resulted in a minor adjustment to the Eagles’ Super Bowl odds, which went from +1700 to +1600. Center Jason Kelce’s retirement could have been an equalizer.
Running backs are unlikely to have much impact on the Super Bowl futures betting market.
Here are some other notable running back moves:
Derrick Henry (two-year $16M, $9M guaranteed) to the Ravens
Josh Jacobs (four-year $48M, $12.5M guaranteed) to the Packers
D’Andre Swift (three-year $24.5M, $15.3M guaranteed) to the Bears
Aaron Jones (one-year $7M, $6M base salary) to the Vikings
Zack Moss (two-year $8M, $4.5M guaranteed) to the Bengals
Joe Mixon traded to the Texans for an undisclosed pick
Of those six running backs, only the Packers and Texans have lowered their odds since the Feb. 11 release. However, I suspect the movement on the Texans has more to do with the market’s bullish sentiment on their Super Bowl chances, even before the Mixon trade.
The key takeaway is that bettors shouldn’t be overly consumed with free agent movement if it doesn’t involve a top-tier quarterback.
Super Bowl odds are just another interpretation of a team’s power rating, which involves a comprehensive view of its personnel, schemes and coaching leadership.
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.