Back a high scoring game between the Phillies and Reds ahead of Monday’s series opener

Left-handed pitcher Ranger Suárez has had a tremendous start to the season for the Phillies, with a 1.73 ERA and 3-0 record across 26 innings.

However, Monday looks to be the right spot to fade Suarez.

Let’s take a look at the reasons why and make a pick for Phillies vs. Reds.

Odds via DraftKings

Suárez is coming off a dominating performance against the Rockies last week. But keep in mind, Colorado has a lineup that is the worst in baseball against left-handed pitchers.

The Reds, on the other hand, have been quietly effective versus lefties, as they own a wRC+ of 106 against them through the first month of the season.

They enter with a fifth-best walks-to-strikeout ratio of 0.55 versus southpaws. On top of solid discipline, they are hitting the ball well against left-handed pitching. Their soft contact rate on balls in play of 12.3% to lefties is the second-lowest in MLB.

Life won’t be any easier for Reds starter Hunter Greene, who continues to post modest results inside the batter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park.

Greene has pitched to a 4.39 ERA in two starts at GABP this season, and owned a 5.13 ERA at home in 2023.

Greene’s incredible arsenal continues to suggest he should prevent runs more effectively than he has.

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Command can become a problem for him, and his propensity to leave meatballs out over the plate has hurt his actual results considerably throughout his MLB career.

More notably, however, the Phillies offense is starting to play to its lofty preseason expectations. They have hit to a wRC+ of 103 over the last 14 days. They have also reduced their strikeout rate to 22.1%, and have hard hit 34.5% of balls in play.

The batters that are expected to be in the Phillies lineup tonight have found success versus Greene historically. Current Phils’ batters are 10-for-27 against Greene in their careers.

If the Phillies can do some damage off Greene, they will get into the soft arms of a Cincinatti bullpen, which has not been very strong so far. The Reds’ bullpen owns MLB’s fourth-worst xFIP at 4.55.

I’m happy to fade Suarez, who is overachieving in 2024, and I also don’t mind riding a potent Phillies offense versus Greene.

The total sits at 8.5, pretty low for a game at GAPB, and I don’t believe this matchup warrants it.

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