Bet on Maple Leafs to beat Flyers in Toronto in Tuesday night’s matchup

The Philadelphia Flyers are desperate for a win. Losers of two in a row and three of four, the Flyers are still in third-place in the Metropolitan Division thanks to the uninspiring form of the teams around them. Making things more complicated is Philadelphia is in the middle of a brutal stretch of schedule that sees it play Toronto, Carolina, Boston, Florida and the New York Rangers over the next seven days.

A win against the Maple Leafs on Tuesday night would be a massive boost for a team that faces an uphill climb over the next week.

While the Flyers will be desperate to fight their way into the playoffs, the Maple Leafs are in a peculiar (but familiar to them) spot. Toronto is basically assured of finishing as the No. 3 seed in the Atlantic Division and will either play Florida or Boston in Round 1, so there’s not too much that the Leafs can gain from the last four weeks of the season. That doesn’t mean Toronto is just going to play fast and loose or without care, but it seemingly would increase the likelihood of a letdown performance.

That said, the Leafs are the team in better form at the moment.

For most of the season, the Flyers have been a sturdy defensive team that sat in, or around, the top-10 when it came to expected goals against and preventing quality scoring chances. Those numbers have dipped precipitously of late and it’s no coincidence. Philadelphia’s defense looks a lot different now than it did a few weeks ago. Nick Seeler, Jamie Drysdale and Rasmus Ristolainen are all hurt, while Sean Walker was traded to the Avalanche for a first-round pick. Any team will take a step back when it loses that much quality from its blueline.

These two teams met last Thursday in Philadelphia and that line closed with Toronto as a -118 favorite, but it seems like the market has caught onto the fact that this Flyers team is materially changed and that the defense and goaltending will likely continue to struggle. I wouldn’t go much further than -135, but it would be Toronto for me at the current prices.

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