Back the Mets and Cardinals to score plenty of runs in Monday night’s matchup in St. Louis

Monday’s series opener between the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals features a pair of starters that should regress moving forward and are backed by bullpens that were taxed over the weekend.

Neither offense is in great form, but this matchup provides a great opportunity for both lineups to get right.

Odds via FanDuel

Sean Manaea has clearly run with some favorable luck in achieving his 3.07 ERA.

He has allowed a WHIP of 1.43, including a walk rate of 14.1%, which has risen over his last four outings.

He has pitched to identical an xFIP and xERA of 4.77. His Stuff+ of 86 is down compared to last season, when it was 91 and he still finished with an ERA of 4.44.

The Mets’ bullpen is tired entering this matchup. We might see Carlos Mendoza try to push for a couple extra outs from Manaea, which would be a problem.

Since last season Manaea has allowed a slug rate of only .301 the first time through the order, but features more-pronounced-than-average splits the second and third times.

Relative to preseason projections, the Cardinals own arguably the league’s most underachieving offense.

They have hit to a wRC+ of only 83, with an OPS of .625. Their xSLG of .368 suggests they will trend upward moving forward though, and this matchup provides a good chance for them to get right.

Kyle Gibson doesn’t appear to offer much of an edge over Manaea, if any. He has pitched to an xERA of 5.58, with an xFIP of 4.28. He owns a Stuff+ of only 92.

Since the start of last season, opponents have hard-hit 54% of his fastballs, which is the fourth-highest mark among starters with more than 75 innings pitched.

The Mets have been the 11th-most effective offense this season versus right-handed pitching, with a wRC+ of 103. They own the fourth-best BB/K percentage of 0.46, and have hit to soft contact just 15.6% of the time.

A betting total of 8 looks a little low considering how bad these two starters should be moving forward.

The Cardinals should have a strong offensive day for a change, but that might not translate to a win with Gibson on the mound.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.