Back the Panthers to finish off series against Lightning in Game 6 of first-round series

The Tampa Bay Lightning staved off elimination with a 6-3 win over the Florida Panthers in Game 4 on Saturday, but there’s still plenty of work left for the Bolts to do in order to get back into this best-of-7 showdown.

Not only is Tampa trailing Florida, 3-1, in the series, but the Panthers have largely been the better team for the lion’s share of the first four games.

Will Florida close this thing out on Monday night?

The Panthers were one of the best 5-on-5 teams in the NHL for much of this season and that has carried over into the postseason through four games. The Lightning have had their moments, but Florida’s been in control at even strength for much of the series. The Cats have outscored the Lightning, 10-6, at 5-on-5 and they boast a +1.7 expected goal difference and a +13 edge in high-danger scoring chances.

It shouldn’t be a surprise that Florida is controlling play at 5-on-5. The Panthers finished the season ranked third in goal difference, fifth in expected goals rate, second in shot attempt percentage and sixth in high-danger scoring chance rate. Tampa Bay was average in just about every one of those categories.

The Lightning knew that their best path to success in this series was to play Florida even at 5-on-5 and then win the special teams battle and that’s exactly what happened in Game 4. The Lightning drew five penalties, converted on two of the power plays and added a short-handed goal, to boot.

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That is the recipe for success for the Lightning. Get the game off the rails and take advantage of the opportunities that you get. Unfortunately, it just doesn’t seem that sustainable.

The Panthers could stand to play a more disciplined game -- they’ve been shorthanded 17 times in this series -- but everything they’re doing at 5-on-5 seems to be working just fine.

Florida is a -196 favorite to close this series out on Monday, but I’d much rather take on a little more risk with a play on the puckline since these games can get off the rails pretty easily.

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