Take Heat covering as home underdogs vs Celtics in Game 3 Saturday

The Miami Heat responded from a blowout loss to the Boston Celtics in Game 1 by upsetting Boston on their home court in Game 2 with a franchise record 23 three pointers. Oddsmakers on NBA betting sites still favor the Celtics by nine points as the series shifts to Miami. I have the Heat covering that amount on DraftKings (-110).

The Heat can’t rely on trying to replicate Game 2′s historic three point shooting. Not only did Miami make 23 three pointers, but they converted on 53.5 percent of their attempts. Boston’s defense ranks sixth in three point percentage, and I expect a bounce back game from them.

Getting to the free throw line will be big for the Heat, as they shot 18 free throws in Game 2 after only attempting six in Game 1. Tyler Herro breaking down the defense with 14 assists played a big role in Miami getting better looks. Bam Adebayo also bounced back by making nine of 13 shots from the field and bettering Kristaps Porzingis.

Terry Rozier and Jimmy Butler remain out, keeping loftier expectations on the likes of Jaime Jaquez Jr., Caleb Martin, and Duncan Robinson to shoot well from distance and hold their own on the defensive end. While Game 1 was a struggle for these three, all performed well in Game 2.

Miami should anticipate Boston coming out guns ablazing with a full head of steam. The Celtics have been the odds on favorites to win the NBA FInals all season for good reason, and the Heat know as well as anyone how lethal they can be on both sides of the ball.

Despite Jayson Tatum dropping 28 in Game 2, he was quiet and not as aggressive hunting his offense as Jaylen Brown. Porzingis had a bad game as I alluded to earlier, and Jrue Holiday and Derrick White were also quiet. It’s hard to see this script repeating itself.

Boston will look to have a better defensive performance now that they’ve seen the Heat at their best and know what to look out for. If they can switch faster, jump passing lanes, and close out on shooters more effectively, the Heat will be forced into tougher shots.

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I predict the Celtics to win due to them likely coming out the gates hot. While I predict not all of their starting five to be red hot, I expect Porzingis and White to bounce back and better aid Tatum and Brown.

I think the Heat will cover as long as they replicate the excellent ball movement and shot selection from Game 2. I think they’ll be capable of doing this, and having home court advantage has been huge these playoffs thus far.

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