Dr. Conlin's Rx for the Phillies

Before I dissect what Ruben Amaro Jr. and his Merry Men must do to heal one of the most vilified 102-victory teams in baseball history, make yourself comfortable. Put away your Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Utley apparel for the winter. Slip into some comfortable civilian clothes.

It is out of your hands and mine. Oh, you can pepper the media with cockamamie free-agent signings and fantasy-league trades. But your suggestions, both the well-intended and the off-the-wall, will bounce off deaf ears. As a bad but prescient Eagles coach named Joe Kuharich once observed, "If you listen to the fans, you'll soon be sitting up in the stands with them."

If we have learned nothing about the Amaro modus that has added Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee twice, and changed the lineup chemistry with a dazzling trade for Hunter Pence, we should know by now this general manager always has a plan. But he is a "This won't hurt a bit, did it?" guy. A smooth "No sooner done than said" operator. A stealth bomber. You walk into a news conference nobody saw coming and pick the shrapnel out of your laptop after Ruben drops the latest smart bomb. Halladay . . . Lee . . . Oswalt . . . Pence . . .

In an era when expensive free-agent signings are excused as ways to prevent the deforestation of an organization's precious minor league system, Amaro has sold off much of the Phillies' once-lush harvest. One of the great pitching rotations ever assembled was done so at the talent-draining cost of the following: Kyle Drabek, Travis D'Arnaud, Michael Taylor, Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, Anthony Gose, Jonathan Vilar, J.A. Happ, Jarred Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, Josh Zeid, Domingo Santana.

That's 14 players, count 'em. Drabek, Carrasco, Donald, Marson, Taylor and Happ have played in the big leagues so far with varying success. Donald and Marson appear to be backups. The jury is out on physically challenged Drabek, Carrasco and Knapp. Gose projects as a future top-of-the-lineup centerfield star. D'Arnaud was the Eastern League MVP and is on the fast track to All-Star status. Cosart, Singleton and Santana were on every 2011 list of top Phils prospects. (OK, so Ruben stuck a wad of chewing gum into the talent hemorrhage when he acquired outfielder Tyson Gillies and pitcher Phillippe Aumont and J.C. Ramirez in the still-inexplicable trade of Cliff Lee to the Mariners.)

The reward for all that risk was supposed to be a parade down Broad Street to Citizens Bank Park. The flatbeds could have been rolling in Monday's crisp, sauterne sunshine. Instead, we got the resignation of Tony La Russa a day after the Cardinals parade through Baseball Heaven's anemic downtown and past the Gateway Arch d' Triumph. Even before La Russa faced the cameras to announce the end of this phase of his 33-year managing career - the last 16 of them in St. Louis - I was getting emails on TLR. An attorney asked whether I thought Ruben should go after La Russa and sack Charlie Manuel?

Manuel has been under constant sniper fire since the Phillies' World Series parade ended nine blocks short of the listed starting point. This is a typical rant: "I realize that Manuel still has a couple of years on his contract, but I think it's worth it to buy the contract and make the managerial change right now to allow Ryne [Sandberg] as much time as possible to assemble his coaching staff and develop relationships with the players and front office. Bill, Cholly was given a Ferrari this year and managed it into a Camaro. He wouldn't be fired, so much as retired; a World Series folk hero."

I like the auto analogy. But like most Ferraris, which are fast, beautiful and as temperamental as the heroine in a Fellini flick, this Testa Rossa spent a lot of time in the shop. Up on blocks. Getting an oil-dripping engine overhauled. The question is not how a team that won 102 regular-season games failed to advance beyond the NLDS. It is, how did this Phillies team manage to win more than 90 games given the daily casualty list? Manuel's Opening Day lineup spent so little time on the field that I covered more rehab games in Florida featuring Chase Utley, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Ruiz and Dom Brown than I did regular-season games at the Bank.

I will start with two no-brainers: Jimmy Rollins must be signed, not at all costs, but through creative thinking that will give the face of this franchise the chance to wet his beak economically but will protect the Phillies against major slippage as the years pile up on him. He is shopping for 5 years? Fine. Give him the chance to make a base $10 million-a-year guaranteed with the chance to earn another $3 million or so by realizing fairly realistic goals. Start it at 140 games in Year 1 and wind it down in five-game increments by Year 5.

Rollins should take his place next to Mike Schmidt as a womb-to-tomb Phillies icon. J-Roll is woven deeply into the sports fabric of this town and the legacy of the aging homegrown core group. Larry Bowa was the greatest shortstop in Phillies history without a close second until Rollins came along and added his potent offense to the traditional defensive role demanded by the position. Let's take a look . . .

Rollins bounced back nicely from an injury-riddled 2010 season. He missed 20 games with recurring leg miseries, but had a productive season that included 87 runs scored, 30 stolen bases and 16 homers, many of them clutch shots in the second half. It was his ninth season with 30 or more steals and 80 or more runs scored (including five with more than 100). That is uncommon production by a shortstop in any era, even in one that has produced Cal Ripken, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter.

His offense is off the charts, however, when you pin it to his glove and impeccable throwing accuracy. Rollins committed only seven errors. He has never made more than 14. Bowa, a brilliant defender with great range and a cannon arm, made 16 or more errors five times. He retired with a fielding percentage of .980. Rollins will carry a .984 fielding percentage into the 2012 season. Offense? Rollins' 16 homers last season in 142 games were one more than Bowa's career total over 16 seasons. None of those numbers is intended to disrespect Bowa in any way. Rollins has simply been that much better.

Freddy Galvis is the slick Venezuelan shortstop in waiting. And I hope Freddy gets to wait a few more years. Galvis turns 22 Nov. 14. Hopefully, he will get a full year in Triple A to continue his improvement as a hitter. Meanwhile, Amaro should not need his Stanford degree to figure out what Rollins has meant and should continue to mean to this ballclub.

Which brings us to the other not-so-tough free-agent call, closer and Scott Boras client Ryan Madson. Fortunately, the agent who makes helium seem like a breath of fresh lead, is not nearly so effective in pimping an established major league client as he is draft-eligible college talent. There are 30 GMs out there who don't need to hear Boras extol Madson's changeup as the greatest pitch this side of Mariano Rivera's cutter.

Boras was able to sell J.D. Drew as a "special player" to clubs that had only Drew's gaudy aluminum-bat numbers at Florida State to guide them. But Boras did his agent's job with Hall of Fame dispatch. He got a career .278 hitter who has hit as many as 30 home runs only once $108 million in paydays over a 14-year career in which the potato-chip-brittle outfielder has averaged only 112 games a season.

That said, given the high price of closers and the number of quality relievers who will be in the deepest of the 2012 free-agent pools, Boras probably can land Madson a $50 million contract. There again, this is a potential value play if Madson wants to stay here - and I know he likes the area and has enjoyed his Phillies time - and he will take a little less than Boras wants him to take.

Everything after the Big Two should be viewed through this prism: The Phillies are an elite team that was a Cliff Lee gut-check away from going to St. Louis up, 2-0, in the NLDS. Instead, we will forever be haunted by the image of Ryan Howard going down like a pole-axed bull, foundering a third of the way to first as the Cardinals erupted from the dugout to celebrate a 1-0 Game 5 victory. And that vision should guide Amaro's nonacquisition strategy.

No matter what he says for fan and media absorption about his optimism that Howard will play baseball in April, common sense and prudence must shove him hard to the other side of that bit of wishful thinking. Amaro must have a plan in place that includes The Big Piece missing half the season, perhaps more. Yesterday, he signed 41-year-old slugger Jim Thome. Since the future Hall of Famer has played just five games in the field since 2006, it is obvious Jim's role for Charlie will be late-inning bat off the bench and clubhouse presence.

The nature of a complete Achilles' tendon rupture includes a possibility that Howard misses the 2012 season. He is a large man playing a position where footwork is paramount. And his hitting style is dependent on his ability to generate power off his left leg. He is a no-stride toe-tapper who spins off that back leg like a top to generate bat speed.

Whether a third baseman is acquired or manufactured - I still think John Mayberry has the equipment to play third - Placido Polanco must be moved back to second until Howard is healthy. And Chase Utley should be prepared to play first. This is not a Ryan-will-miss-only-a-month plan; it is a long-term alternative that preserves the integrity of the offense. It has always been speculated that if the body-sacrificing Utley is going to have a long career, he eventually must move to first. (And please, emailers, don't be moving him to third or left; Chase lacks the arm for either.)

I would offer Roy Oswalt an incentive-laden contract with an easy-vesting option number for 2013. And I would try to bring back Raul Ibanez for a role-playing last hurrah.

Ruben's guys are really good at filling out a 25-man, so don't worry about the bench. One minor point: It's time to make some hard minor league decisions on big-ticket bonus players who have underperformed. The Phils had two first-round picks in the 2008 draft. High-school phenoms Anthony Hewitt and Zach Collier were paid $2.45 million in bonuses. Neither has played higher than low A ball. Both can run, but neither has been able to hide his hitting deficiencies. Collier will miss the first 50 games in 2012 after testing positive in August for an amphetamine. Hewitt is carrying a pathetic 4-year batting average of .219 with a frightening strikeout rate. Ah, but the top of the 2008 draft was not a total bust. A Long Beach State righthanded pitcher named Vance Worley went in the third round. The Vanimal is 12-4 in The Show.

Hewitt and Collier have been a No Show . . .