John Smallwood: Stefanski should stick with his plans for Sixers

IF I'M Ed Stefanski, I stay the course.

It's not the popular decision, and it ultimately could cost Stefanski his job – sooner rather than later.

Still, the bottom line is that when Stefanski replaced Billy King as president/general manager 3 years ago, he committed to a rebuilding project with the Sixers.

And while Stefanski conceded on the day of his hiring that the word "patience" doesn't go over well in Philadelphia, rebuilding inherently demands it.

Rebuilding also demands that you remain committed to your ideals when others are convinced you have no idea what you are doing.

When you stink, fans will let you know it. You get beat up if you aren't producing. That's part of the deal.

What Stefanski can't do is allow fans or members of the media to strong-arm him into changes he doesn't want to make.

If Stefanski believes in what he started, stick with it.

If he's right, fans will return to the Wachovia Center as soon as his team matures into a consistent winner.

If Stefanski was wrong from the get-go, then no cosmetic change at this juncture will be enough to save his job anyway.

The third year of a 5-year plan is the wrong time to blow things up and start over.

It can't be much fun to be Stefanski right now. It's about 2 weeks to the trade deadline, and he must decide in which direction to take his shaky franchise. Each path has easy-to-see pitfalls.

Blowing it up seems to be the public consensus, but what happens after that? Shedding such high-priced players as Andre Iguodala or Samuel Dalembert would open up cap space to enter the free-agency sweepstakes, but nothing about free agency is guaranteed.

There is a good possibility that the 2010 free-agent class, billed as potentially the best ever, might end up being average.

The big stars – LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Yao Ming and Amare Stoudemire – are on player-option contracts for 2010-11, meaning all or none could be available this summer.

I'm not sure any of them will give up his current situation unless the conditions are perfect. The Sixers don't look like the perfect situation.

Stefanski could try to make a blockbuster trade. But if he is committed to acquiring talent and not just an expiring contract, a franchise-changing trade is hard to put together. Teams certainly would have interest in such Sixers youngsters as Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights and Jrue Holiday. The problem is their combined salaries total less than $6 million.

NBA trade guidelines will not allow Stefanski to get anyone significant for those players unless they are part of a package with Iguodala, Dalembert or Brand.

Iguodala has value, but if people don't think he is a franchise-level player for the Sixers, why would another team surrender a franchise-level player to acquire him?

The final "tear-it-down" scenario is for the Sixers to be so bad that they will get a high lottery pick. It's a little too late for that. Despite their pitiful, 19-31 record, the Sixers are far from the worst team in the NBA.

Heading into last night, the New Jersey Nets (four wins), Minnesota Timberwolves (13) and Golden State Warriors (13) had significantly fewer wins than the Sixers. Sacramento (16 wins), Detroit (17), Washington (17), Indiana (18) and New York (19) also have a good chance of finishing worse than the Sixers.

Besides, this is one of those years when a high lottery pick means little. Heralded Kentucky freshman point guard John Wall is the best prospect, if he comes out, but I don't think he's a franchise-changing point guard like Chicago's Derrick Rose, New Orleans' Chris Paul or Utah's Deron Williams. Even if Wall is that good, the Sixers will have only a tiny chance of having enough pingpong balls to get him.

And unless it is Wall, the Sixers' draft pick will be the same wait-and-hope project as Holiday, Young and Speights.

On the last day of 2009, my column said that the Sixers should do what it takes to get Tracy McGrady and his expiring $23 million contract from the Houston Rockets. But the motivation for that column was based on the fact that few fans had any faith in the direction the Sixers were going and were expressing their displeasure by not buying tickets.

Little about that has changed, but if I'm Stefanski, I can't worry about that. I'm keeping faith in myself.

The Phillies were in a similar situation not too long ago, but they stayed the course. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Cole Hamels became the core of a World Series champion.

If I'm Stefanski, I'm staying committed to believing that Iguodala and Brand will live up to their contracts, that Young, Speights and Holiday will reach the potential I've seen in them, and that Eddie Jordan is the coach who can take this franchise to the next level.

I have to hope my initial assessments were correct and ultimately swing things in my direction.

If not, I'm going to get fired anyway. *

Send e-mail to smallwj@phillynews.com.

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