David Murphy: How to use ESPN's NFL power rankings & the Keyshawn Barometer

I RECENTLY discovered the weekly NFL power rankings that handicapper Dave Tuley compiles for ESPN.com. Essentially, Tuley and two other gamblers use their own proprietary formula to assign a value to each team. Those values are then combined and weighted so that they resemble NFL scores. Tuley uses these power ratings to compare the relative strengths of two teams against the spread that Vegas has created for their game. For example, the Falcons are tied for sixth in the rankings with 24 points, while the Raiders are 29th at 16 points. Factor in the usual 2 1/2-point bump in homefield advantage for Atlanta, and Tuley's conclusion is that the Falcons are a value play at -8 1/2 because, according to his rankings, they should be a double-digit favorite.

I happen to like the Falcons this week, too. According to the trend data at SportsInsight.com, the majority of the public feels the same way. Of course, that always makes me nervous, because one of my guiding principles is that all of us are stupid, and Vegas preys upon that stupidity to win money. The house always wins because we refuse to believe it. One of my litmus tests for wagers is what I like to call the Keyshawn Barometer. That is, if Keyshawn Johnson predicts something on ESPN, then there is a pretty good chance that the opposite will happen. So if Keyshawn Johnson predicts the same thing that I am predicting, it should result in a thorough re-examination of the prediction. The stronger Mr. Johnson's opinion, the more I am likely to lean the other way. In other words, if said, "Tomorrow is going to be one of the sunniest days of the year," I would make a mental note to grab my umbrella.

While metrics like betting-trend data and the Keyshawn Barometer help to identify public consensus, the whims of professional gamblers are more difficult to gauge. Because professional gamblers know that Vegas knows they are stupid, and they wager accordingly. This is where Tuley's rankings come in. While we can follow the early and late money on a particular game to get a general idea of who the pros are favoring in a given matchup, Tuley's methodology gives us a specific look at how three pros value the league. And if the values of those three pros reflect the value of the professional community as a whole, then perhaps we can identify the teams that said community overvalues and, by extension, the oddsmakers overvalue.

Now, I am fully aware that by identifying a team as overrated, I am valuing my analysis of the NFL over the analyses of Tuley's pollsters. But if self-confidence is a crime, well, you can just skip the trial by jury. So let's test that confidence.

Start with the Patriots, whom Tuley's pollsters rank as the top team in the league at a value of 26.5 points. Overvalued. Maybe it is because they have covered nine of their last 11 regular-season games, or because of the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady factor. But the Patriots are ordinary, at best, on the offensive line, and their front-seven struggles to pressure the quarterback. Tuley identifies the Seahawks as a value play as it is, which only adds to my confidence in Seattle +3 1/2.

The most overrated team in the poll is the Ravens, who the pollsters have at 24 1/2 points, tied with the Giants for fourth in the league. As we saw in the Eagles' 24-23 win over the Ravens, this isn't your usual Baltimore defense. The ordinariness of said defense has been disguised by lackluster opponents like Kansas City, Cleveland and Cincinnati (and, you could argue, the Eagles). This week, the Ravens face the Cowboys, to whom the poll assigns a value of 22. Dallas and Baltimore are equals as far as I'm concerned. Because the Cowboys have a front seven that can neutralize a power running game, and because Joe Flacco tends to wilt when he does not have a pocket, I'm picking Dallas outright, although I won't complain if they simply cover the +3 1/2 points.

Moving beyond Tuley's poll, we've reached a point where the lines are probably undervaluing the Packers (+3 1/2 in Houston, where the Texans' secondary looked shaky last week) and the Jets (-3 1/2 at home against the Colts, who are coming off an emotional win over the Packers and can't seem to keep opposing defenders off Andrew Luck's back), while also overvaluing the Vikings (NL in Washington). So I'm inclined to take the Packers, Jets and Redskins and hope that three of the early going's more dramatic deviations from the mean start to even out. The Jets are bad, but they are still a decent NFL defense facing a rookie quarterback and a poor offensive line, and as much as it pains me to place any faith in Mark Sanchez, it is the smart play this week.

Betting Big Red

The warning to avoid the Eagles and their opponents at all costs still stands. The Lions are 0-4 against the spread and the Eagles are 1-3-1, and that pretty much sums up both teams' seasons. Neither possesses as much talent as it was credited with in the postseason. But neither is as bad as it has played. The Eagles are the better team, and they are playing at home, but Detroit is coming off a bye week. Pocket your money and buy a pizza.

Contact David Murphy at dmurphy@phillynews.com. Follow him on Twitter @HighCheese.