Sam Donnellon: How point-spread gurus see Eagles-Cowboys matchup

WHEN THE EAGLES kicked off to the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday, they did so as three-point underdogs. In reaching this number, oddsmakers factored in homefield advantage, a four-point Dallas victory in Philadelphia earlier this season,

injuries to Jamaal Jackson and Michael Vick.

And, of course, public sentiment.

An hour or so after the Cowboys completed their 24-0 whitewash of your team, the four men of Las Vegas Sports Consultants who set the line for about 30 Nevada casinos huddled together in their second-story office near McCarran Airport and settled on a number for this week's

rematch.

Surely they would not place the line so low this time around. Surely they would see there was more than a three-point difference between these two teams.

Surely, they did.

The line this week was set at 4 1/2 points. Almost immediately, it dropped to four, and has remained there all week.

What gives?

"People just aren't ready to buy into Dallas," said Mike Seba, a senior oddsmaker with LVSC. "All year long, Philly looked to a lot of people - and I'm one of them - as a team that could get to the Super Bowl."

Did 24-zip change that perception to bettors? Less than it did here, it seems. It wasn't just the Eagles' injuries or the close first game, either. The oddsmakers threw the final score out the window, too. "The Eagles had a bad first half, and then they made a decision to play for next week," Seba said. "I'm not saying they packed it in, but you didn't see much after that. They made a decision to keep stuff in their pocket and play for next week."

There is also that lingering doubt about the Cowboys due to their dismal playoff history under Wade Phillips and Tony

Romo.

"I think people are thinking about the past, when the Cowboys have played great and then fallen on their faces," Seba said.

Here's how the line was set: After the late games finished Sunday, four men adjourned to a table with information collected from games and reports, and with their own inklings and biases as well. Seba, Dan O'Brien, Sean Van Patten and Kenny White, the CEO of LVSC, each handicapped this weekend's game, and a debate began.

All four arrived at a different spread for the game, ranging from a low of 3 1/2 to five. Seba

arrived at 4 1/2, even though his math told him otherwise. "My power rating for the game was a six-point spread," he said. "You can't make it six, though, because it's just an automatic take."

And the goal of any good oddsmaker, Seba said, "is to put a line out there that will get equal access by the public." The difficulty is that the public consists of two disparate birds, the casual bettor and the professionals, or "sharp guys," as oddsmakers call them.

Sharp guys devour big point spreads. "They like to bet the 'dogs," he said. "You have to be careful making the favorites too high.' "

So, although Seba agreed to that four-point spread as an

oddsmaker, his math tells him it will be bigger at game's end. "If I was a betting man, which I am, and if I was betting this game, which I'm not sure I am, my

belief is there is a decided edge there for Dallas."

Don't underestimate the impact of that one-point increase, either. Oddsmakers see any movement in numbers from two to four to be more significant and impacting than from four to six. "It takes a lot of money to move the line," Seba said.

Bettors did that initially, but not the way you might have thought. Bettors took the Eagles and the points, shaving a half-point off the spread almost immediately.

It has remained at four in most places since.

Oh, one more thing. You know the debate over Donovan McNabb's playoff worth? Well, Seba said the only thing that would push the line upward toward seven at this point is if McNabb was injured today or tomorrow and had to be replaced at quarterback by Kevin Kolb or Vick.

Bet that surprised at least some of you more than the spread did.

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