Why Ryan Madson has had a wonderful off-season
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Why Ryan Madson has had a wonderful off-season
Matt Gelb
The Yankees will reportedly sign former Tampa Bay closer Rafael Soriano to a three-year, $35 million deal. But wait, you say, don't the Yankees already have the greatest closer in baseball history? Why yes, they do. Soriano will be paid the fifth highest average annual salary for a reliever ever -- to be a setup man.
It's an interesting decision by the Yankees, attempting to offset one inequity (their starting rotation) by stocking another (their bullpen). Sounds like a team that isn't worrying about its right fielder because it has four aces.
Anyways, when Soriano signs his deal, he will be the 14th reliever to ink a multi-year deal this off-season. And now there are reports that Oakland and righthander Grant Balfour are nearing a multi-year deal. He will be No. 15.
Fifteen! That's more than in any of the last five off-seasons. I'll let Yahoo! baseball columnist Jeff Passan explain the ridiculousness of this situation:
Relievers received 11 multiyear contracts in 2006, totaling 28 seasons, at a combined price of $97.3 million. In 14 of those seasons, the pitchers finished with zero Wins Above Replacement (as measured by Baseball-Reference.com) or fewer, meaning their performance was as bad as that of some schlub toiling in Triple-A. Eight of the 11 were either released, traded or suffered season-ending injuries sometime during their contracts.
Outlier? Hardly. Last season, four of the nine relief pitchers who signed multiyear contracts finished the year with a negative WAR, which means not only did the GMs commit arson on the boss’ money, they would’ve been better off letting those pitchers stay at home nightly.
The moral of this story: Relief pitching is fungible. Because it is an asset, however, managers beg their GMs for a reliever for Christmas, and GMs believe there’s no way their reliever will be one of the bad ones, and blunders ice a gaffe cake.
So, a list of those lucky 15 from this off-season:
Grant Balfour
Joaquin Benoit
Randy Choate
Jose Contreras
Jesse Crain
Scott Downs
Pedro Feliciano
Matt Guerrier
D.J. Carrasco
Bobby Jenks
Will Ohman
J.J. Putz
Mariano Rivera
Rafael Soriano
Hisanori Takahashi
That number could even be higher by the time spring training begins. Brian Fuentes and Jon Rauch are still on the market.
Now, what does this all have to do with the Phillies? Well, the Phillies have one reliever under contract for the 2012 season: Jose Contreras. Brad Lidge has a $12.5 million club option with a $1.5 million buyout. It is very possible the Phillies decline that option and allow Lidge to become a free agent. They could also agree on a new deal with a smaller salary. Depends on how Lidge's 2011 season goes.
Then there's Ryan Madson, whose three-year, $12 million deal expires after this season. Who is Ryan Madson's agent? Scott Boras. Who just negotiated a $35 million deal for a pitcher who could be a closer on most teams but will instead be a setup man? Scott Boras.
Madson has had an incredibly profitable off-season. Of course, we knew all along that Madson's impending free agency would be an interesting case regardless. He is unquestionably one of the game's best setup men, but has had limited chances to close. And when he has, they haven't gone exceptionally well.
Of those 17 pitchers listed above, five have a greater Wins Above Replacement than Madson since 2007 (Rivera, Downs, Jenks, Soriano, Putz). Madson's WAR is 5.5, which ranks 27th in all of baseball since 2007. All five of those pitchers have been closers during that period, which obviously adds to their value. Madson, one would argue, could have been a closer on many teams over the past few seasons. That argument will almost certainly be made by Madson's agent.
Those five pitchers signed deals this off-season with an average annual value of $8.5 million. Madson will make $4.5 million in 2011. Is it unreasonable to think he could command that $8.5 million on the open market?
Here's the other intriguing factor: Next off-season's market could be absolutely loaded with closer types. Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton, Matt Capps, Ryan Franklin, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon and Francisco Rodriguez are all possible free agents. Throw in Lidge and Madson and there will absolutely be a lot of demand (with plenty of supply).
And even if a team wants to sign Madson as a setup man, which Boras set the precedent for with Soriano, it will still be costly. We've seen how expensive setup relief can be: Joaquin Benoit signed a three-year, $16.5 million deal after a terrific 2010 season. But he did not pitch at all in 2009. And in 2008, he had a 5.00 ERA. So that deal might only be Madson's floor.
It's way too far away to even speculate, but the Phillies will face a really interesting decision. You figure they spend closer's money on just one pitcher and both Lidge and Madson could command closer's money with good 2011 seasons. So is it Lidge? Or do you spend the money on Madson, who has yet to be a full-time closer? What about pursuing the many free agent options that will exist?
All something to remember this season when evaluating the Phillies' late-inning relief.
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Bear in mind that he will be a Type A free agent, which will make it less likely that the Phillies re-sign him.— tgray83
Comment removed.- People_who_put_dashes_in_between_their_words_are_tools
— DixonBunz - Comment removed.
- "closeted_hider"_is_a_bit_redundant,_no_? — DixonBunz
- What does he being a potential Type A free agent have to do with anything? Teams do not lose any draft picks when re-signing their own players, regardless of ranking. — Eilex826
- Mad dog was way better then Lidge last season. He was more consistent and has a lower ERA. I don't expect this season to be any different.— Jangocat
- The major difference being that Lidge is a closer and Madson a setup guy. Lidge may have been shaky from time-to-time in 2009 and even a little in 2010; but, he was far and away a better closer than Madson has shown himself able to be. — veritas1325
- Just because the Yankees overspend doesn't mean every other team now has to spend $35M on a good set-up guy. Plus Madsen never had a year that Soriano had last year. His numbers were remarkable.— ronin32
- This is why they have to give the young guys a chance this year to see who is ready...no way they want to spend mega bucks in 2012 on the bullpen...— stan the man too
- He'll be in Washington next year too.— spittooncj
- How many chances to close does a guy get before they're no longer limited and we're no longer speculating about his ability to be a closer? Madson is one of the best setup men in the league; but, his performance as closer when called upon in 2009 and 2010 were so far less than stellar that I'm ready to say we've seen enough.— veritas1325
Heath Bell sounds good.— jp8899- Why does Wins matter for relievers, since they can only win if the team regains the lead during their stint, a lead which as often as not that same reliever gave up in the first place?— billinseattle
- Wins really are pretty irrelevant when judging pitching performance regardless of it being a starter or reliever. But you are right that its even less meaningful as a reliever.
However with that said... relievers can also get wins if they come into a game tied or trailing and then their team takes the lead the next half inning.— Chewy59 - 2nd paragraph begins with, "Anyways..." Really? C'mon, that's a common mispronunciation out here in California by 18 year old girls but I expect better from my Philly writers. Anyways is not a word. Would you say "somewheres?"— esesjay
- I expect Madson to transition into the closer role in 2012.— bobf876
- I don't know why they even keep standings anymore. They should accumulate the highest WAR value = OPS for the division champs. Then they can play MLB 11 simulations for the World Series Winners. I never saw so many guys with calculators trying to pass themselves off as sports guys. One nitwit was comparing Von Hayes to Julio Franco because Von Hayes had a higher OPS for a couple of years. Try watching the games and step away from the computer.— chuck49
- Comment removed.
- r2c2— tooltime
- greatest pitcher over a 60 day season ever...try doing it all year and not kicking chairs, woops, there goes another gopher, woops, my head just grew another size..what? barry bonds head in action people...check the tape— tooltime
- Anyways????? Not a word. You must be from the Midwest.— fgdavis
- WIn the World Series in 2011 and then figure it all out. That will help everyone make better decisions, including the players :-)— petergou
- WINS FOR RELIEVE PITCHERS ARE MEANINGLESS. Example; pitcher comes in the 8th inning with a three run lead, gives up a 3-run HR, his team scores a run in the bottom of the inning, the closer shuts down the opposition in the ninth. Who gets the win, the pitcher who gave up the HR. Reliever wins are deceiving.
— lefty27 - Yeah....lets go crazy and actually see how Madson does before we annoint him the next mega-millions reliever. He has a horrible history as a closer. He's been fools gold. He can have a night or 2 where he's blowing people away and then he blows up just when you think the potential has finally come through. It's been this way for several seasons now. He's been given every chance to take the job from Lidge and he's come up woefully short every time. I'm not saying he's a bad pitcher, but lets not call him elite just yet either.— Sewellmatt
We added Cliff Lee to the rotation that logged the most innings in baseball. Relief Pitching is not a priority area for the Phillies for a while. Let Lidge and Madson both walk and sign cheaper so we can get more pop in our lineup after the Ibanez contract is up and we have to do something in the outfield.
Madson blows!— The Philly Shadow- The Yanks acquired Soriano because they plan to trade Joba Chamberlain for a starting pitcher. Joe Blanton has been frequently mentioned as a possible fit for the Yanks, and the Phils could do a lot worse than trading Blanton and his $17 million 2-year contract for the 25 year old Chamberlain who earned $488,000 in 2010 and doesn't become a free agent until 2014. Chamberlain has fought control issues in the past but has big time upside potential, especially as a reliever. He is eligible for salary arbitration in 2011, but even with favorable arbitration, he should remain very affordable. On the other side of the coin, the Yanks would probably consider Blanton's current contract a mere drop in the bucket, and with Andy Pettitte announcing he will not return to New York for at least the start of the 2011 season, the Yanks need to acquire a few experienced starters pronto. Carl Pavano, who is about to sign with the Twins, is no longer available, and Blanton appears to be one of the top currently available starters. The Phils realize that Madson, Lidge and Baez become free agents after this season, and unless any of these relievers pitchers have healthy personal best seasons, the Phils will probably not get into bidding wars with other teams for their services in 2012 and beyond. Therefore, the Phils will probably entertain discussions wuth other teams that deal with the potential acquisitions young, skilled and affordable relievers. Ruben, if Cashman calls and offers you Chamberlain for Blanton, do it. The Phils still have young options for the 5th spot in their starting rotation, and regardless who the Phils choose as their 5th starting pitcher, hanging around guys like Halladay, Lee, Oswalt and Hamels is bound to rub off in a good way. I wouldn't be surprised to see a youngster, like a Vance Worley, take over the 5th starting position and put up numbers comparable to those of the Aces in the Phils starting rotation.
- I love this post and idea — tommyprograms
- "Madsen has had an incredibly profitable off-season."
And then no explanation?
What does that sentence mean?
Regardless, Phils should find out if he can close. If he can't, there's no way you spend that kind of Boras money on a set-up man, especially when you have a strong rotation.— VicM - OK. Just got the headline and that sentence.
Regardless, set-up men who can't close aren't worth this kind of money— VicM 
He's a great set up man who's spit the bit every time he gets work in the 9th. No set up man is worth 8 figures per year. I'm not sold that he's got closer stuff. He can follow Lidge out the door and continue to be The Bridge to Lidge somewhere else.— Doctor D- If you're not convinced that Madson has closer stuff, you're not paying attention. I would be stunned if the Phils don't sign him to close in 2012.— Mike P
I don't agree with the premise. Soriano is a closer coming off a fantastic year. The Yankees have tons of money to pay him closer money while he sets up until Rivera retires. Madson was due to make some nice money to either set up or close beyond 2012 already, and I don't think any of the signings this winter moved the needle on what he'll wind up getting.- Okay Philly writers now hear this: I don't want to hear any negative news about the Phillies until the season starts. NOTHING! I don't want to hear about contracts and never again mention Scott Boras! This is going to be a wonderful season. Every game is going to be pitched by a star. Let me enjoy it! In the name of hot dogs and beer, stop the negative stories, NOW!— Ron
Wouldn't surprise me if Madson went the route of Werth... Just like 'crying' there is no loyalty in baseball... And, probably, rightfully so...- What's up with WAR? The geekifacation of baseball continues. I wonder if these mutants ever actually WATCh baseball.— porcamiseria33
Scott Boras should be dropped from 35,000 feet into the cooling tower of an Iranian nuclear reactor.— Nuutron- veritas, you speaking truth— Eephus
- Is the solution for winning teams, to field a certain percentage of players from their own system, to offset the few they should acquire from free agency at the premium cost? The answer and the trend are not the same, and that scares me.— justacarpenter
- Onethebucks makes points that are fair to consider. Blanton has value and will attract the attention of teams that need rotation help, like the Yankees. That said, I am not sold on Joba. He has upside, but he scares me. I want to see how Big Joe starts the year now he is healthy. I think Madson is content as a set-up guy...we will see. Will be interested in watching De Fratus and also in monitoring Lidge's slurve (high slider) that he was able to throw for strikes for the last 1/3 of the season. Having that pitch that he could drop for a strike made him much more effective.— Special Agent Fox Mulder
- Pray to the baseball gods that Matt Anderson's rehab is a great success--he rediscovers how to put a 95mph fastball over the plate and throw a curve. When he steps in as closer next year, the overpriced, and underreliable Lidge becomes expendable, which means the Phillies can afford to pay a premium to keep Ryan Madson as very effective setup man. Could mean two world series in a row, if, of course, the Phils add a right hand power hitter for the five spot to protect Ryan Howard, Rollins/Utley don't disintegrate, and there is decent defense in the outfield corners. Oops, looks like too many ifs. Well, two winning seasons anyway.— spirnfam
