DN Agenda: When will the Phillies next play a meaningful game in September?

J.P. Crawford arrived to Double-A before the end of his first month of the 2015 season. At 20 years old, he was the youngest player in the Eastern League upon arrival.

He could be on pace to become the youngest everyday position player in the Phillies' major league lineup since another multi-talented, California-bred shortstop, a 21-year-old Jimmy Rollins, arrived in Philadelphia 15 years ago.

Aaron Nola, 21, will surely beat Crawford to Citizens Bank Park. Maikel Franco, 22, is already there. Roman Quinn, also 22, could come at some point next summer.

Now, we're not using this space to anoint any member of that quartet as a future All-Star, and we're not naming them as the long-awaited group of promising players that can be the organization's new core, taking over from the Cole Hamels-Ryan Howard-Chase-Utley-Rollins era.

But, following a decade when the proverbial well had run dry in the farm system, there is promise in those four players, along with the rest of the pitching staff at Reading and some bats in A-ball, too.

It's not enough to make the Phillies a contender as soon as 2016. But it could certainly be enough to form the base of a club that can play meaningful baseball by September of 2017.

Here's how: those aforementioned prospects may pale in comparison to the young core that's suddenly vaulted the Chicago Cubs into contenders, but, like Chicago, and unlike other young, promising clubs in Houston and Kansas City, the Phillies have the wherewithal to complement a group of talented-yet-unproven players with established veterans via the most important x-factor in baseball.

Money.

The contracts of Ryan Howard, Cliff Lee and Jonathan Papelbon are all set to come off the books within the next two seasons. The Phillies have just $34 million guaranteed to the 2017 roster, and $23.5 million of that is owed to Hamels, who could be receiving that check from another team if a trade is consummated in the next 6 weeks.

Not only is payroll flexibility on the way, but so is the multi-billion dollar TV contract with Comcast. That kicks in after the 2015 season.

The Phillies will have money to spend. They can add 3-4 significant pieces through free agency, be it from the major league or international markets.

Spending it wisely is another matter entirely. But it's not far-fetched to think the 2017 Phillies could play a meaningful game in September.

The division will remain tough, no doubt. But a second wild card has opened the door for even an unfinished product of a team to compete.

Maybe the best way to make my point is to point to the Braves. They are the third-best team in the division. It's fair to say that the Phillies will need to be better than the third-best team in the division for a September to matter. The Mets' young rotation gives them a window of at least three-to-four years. The Nationals have some expensive decisions looming, but it's still fair to say they are in much better shape than the Phillies from a three-to-five-year perspective. But the Braves started this past off-season in the same rebuilding mode as the Phillies, with roughly the same timetable in mind.Heading into yesterday, they were a game under .500.

In Shelby Miller, Mike Foltynewicz and Julio Teheran, they have three young starters who will be together in their rotation through at least 2018, when Miller is eligible to become a free agent. Freddie Freeman and Andrelton Simmons will be together through at least 2020. Even if Aaron Nola ends up equalling the production of Miller, who entered yesterday with 1.48 ERA in 10 starts, that still leaves the Phillies a Folynewicz and Teheran short of where the Braves are. For as much ink as the Phillies' Double-A pitchers have generated, none of them are on that level. Top hitting prospect J.P. Crawford could be a centerpiece player, but again, he and Maikel Franco are the only ones with a better-than-even shot at contributing serious production over the next couple of seasons.

So even if Franco and Crawford end up equaling Freeman/Simmons, and Nola equals Miller, the Braves are still a couple of promising younger pitchers ahead of the Phillies. And their farm system is in much better shape after a whirlwind off-season from new GM John Hart. Point is, it's hard to project the Phillies until you can project them surpassing either the Nationals, Mets or Braves. And in order for them to surpass the Braves within the next three years, you'd have to project their front office to out-build the Braves' front office from this point forward (assuming all other things, i.e. the probability of a big league payoff from each system's current talent).

Maybe a better way to put it is this: If you were a GM charged with producing a meaningful September at some point between now and 2018, would you pick the Phillies' organizational talent over the Mets', Nationals' or Braves'? I wouldn't. Which means I think the Phillies' front office will need to out-maneuver the other three moving forward in order to contend. And the evidence I have at my disposal gives me no reason to believe that they will. Give then even odds in 2019, but I'll go with 2020.

The first thing is to define what a "meaningful" game in September is.

To me it means being within yelling distance of one of the three playoff options available to the Phillies - the National League East or one of two wild card spots.

As is the case with all Philadelphia teams, the typical reaction is to focus on the ultimate prize while dismissing the intermediate steps of getting there.

Rarely does a team go from being one of the worst to instantly making a championship series in one off-season. There is a process of challenging and then making the playoffs first.

The Phillies are in rebuild mode and they are talking as it is going to be about a five-year process to get to where they want to be.

Presumably, where they want to be is the point where they are again winning NL East Divisions and being legitimately talked about as a World Series contender.

Still Major League Baseball is the one sport without a salary cap and that makes money the wild card factor in any rebuilding process.

If a team wants to speed up the rebuilding, all it has to do is to be willing to commit the financial resources to aggressively attack the free agent market.

The Phillies are about to become flush wih cash when the 25-year television contract with Comcast that is worth $2.5 billion kicks in.

I do not think the Phillies will deviate from their long-term goal of trying to develop from within, but I think this ownership enjoyed the times when Citizens Bank Park was sold out and going to a game was an event.

They see how being mediocre makes you obsolete. Fans may verbally support rebuilding but they don't pay to watch. Playing at 65 percent capacity for an extended time is not something they want.

I think they will spend for the right free agents that can be a part of the long build but also make the Phillies respectable now. Whether or not they have the right people to do that is another question.

"Meaningful" games means being within four or five games of three potential playoff spots at the start of September. That isn't all that difficult.

Those kinds of games will come in 2017.

Would you believe 2015? Didn't think so. Maybe I should consult with Ruben. Anyway, it's a loaded question, since playing a meaningful game in September doesn't necessarily translate into bona fide contender or even potential playoff berth. Having a second wild-card team has changed the landscape. And the perspective. Now there seem to be way more clubs still hanging around, even if it's only on the distant periphery, heading into the season's final month. Even a few that are only going to wind up winning 81 games or so by the time it's over. But when you haven't been relevant in awhile, I suppose you take whatever those fickle sporting gods are willing to toss your way.

The realistic side of me would have to say at least 2017. And even that's probably being optimistic. But just how much is the operative conundrum. They obviously have at least a few promising prospects that appear to be close to contributing at the only level that matters. And maybe they'll have even more, if the impending trade of Cole Hamels works out the way they need it to. But let's assume that Franco is the real thing. And that doesn't mean the next Mike Schmidt. And let's assume that we can soon say the same about some of their young arms. And maybe in two years or less they'll have a shortstop and centerfielder who are ready to be factors. That still means they need to find a bunch of pieces, and have more moves go right, to push the timetable too much ahead of schedule.

I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and hope more things work in their favor than not. But I look at how long it took teams like the Cubs, Pirates and Royals to finally turn it around. It's not easy. Especially not in this town, where we've had one parade in 32 years. And in their division. The Sixers could wind up playing a meaningful game in April or later before the Phils can make the fall fun again. So I'll confidently go with 2018, and let the fan part of me root for my projection to be a year behind the actual learning curve. But another three years feels about right. Rehabs take time. And this makeover won't include much of anything that's already in place here.​

Ed Barkowitz...2018
Les Bowen…2019
Bob Cooney…2019
Doug Darroch...2017
Jim Destefano...2018
Paul Domowitch…2022
Sam Donnellon…2019
Marcus Hayes...2018
Rich Hofmann…2018
Dick Jerardi…2017
Mike Kern...2018
Ryan Lawrence...2017
Tom Mahon...2018
Drew McQuade...2020
David Murphy...2020
Jeff Neiburg...2019
Mark Perner…2019
Leigh Primavera…2017
Frank Seravalli…2019
John Smallwood…2017
Bob Vetrone Jr....2025
Deb Woodell...2017

12 VOTED FOR BEFORE 2019
10 VOTED FOR 2019 OR LATER

The Philadelphia Phillies, an ill-constructed, iller-conceived punch line of a baseball team, are gearing up to enhance their disastrousness even further. June is nigh, which gives us the gift of trade season, that glorious intersection of truth, fiction and feverish, carpal tunnel-inducing refresh-button clicks on MLB Trade Rumors.

Starring in this summer's show is Ruben Amaro Jr., the Phillies' general manager who has overseen the systematic implosion of a franchise that won five consecutive National League East titles. A half-decade streak of dominance is impressive. The ability to turn upwards of half a billion dollars into a pair of 73-win seasons and wherever this year ends up when it's done circling the toilet bowl is eminently tougher.

How Amaro has kept one of the best gigs in baseball is the sort of business-school case study that belongs alongside New Coke. The Phillies have the worst run differential in baseball at minus-70 and are on pace to lose 102 games – and that's before …

Cole Hamels gets traded. Which, as much as it seems an inevitability at this point, remains in the hands of Amaro, meaning: Are we really sure the guy who has spent the last two years egregiously overvaluing his best trade asset can find a match?

— Jeff Passan, yahoo.com

According to a major league source familiar with the Phillies' way of thinking, Philadelphia recently has altered its approach in regards to dealing Cole Hamels … somewhat.

Per the source, the Phillies now are willing to take on more of Hamels' remaining salary than they had been earlier in the season. Philly hasn't, however, backed off its demand for the kind of premier talent potential trade partners don't currently seem comfortable giving up.

Hamels is making $22.5 million this season and $67.5 million over the next three years. The 31-year-old lefty also carries a club option for $20 million in 2019.

The Red Sox are among the teams Hamels would need to approach a trade to, potentially resulting in the pitcher requesting his option year be picked up.

— Rob Bradford, weei.com

Listen, the Cardinals are going to need help, if only for their bench, now that Matt Adams likely is out for the season with a torn quad. I'm a Mark Reynolds fan, but I like him better playing mostly against lefties. (Ryan) Howard, then, could serve as a left-handed complement. So, however, could two other first basemen who likely are to be available, the Brewers' Adam Lind and Rockies' Justin Morneau.

Lind is hitting the best of the three, and unlike Howard does not have another guaranteed year on his contract (Lind has a club option; Morneau a mutual option). The Phillies are willing to cover the vast majority of Howard's remaining $50 million-plus, but the Cardinals probably have little interest in impeding Adams in 2016.

Another thing: No one knows whether Howard actually would waive his 10-and-5 rights to return to his native St. Louis, not after engaging in a nasty legal dispute with family members in 2013-14 (the matter was settled out of court).

I'll just conclude with this: Howard is not an albatross, not when he has 10 homers and an .817 OPS and the Phillies are willing to turn him into say, a $5 million per year player. Some team is going to want him. Maybe not the Cardinals, but some team.

— Ken Rosenthal, foxsports.com​