What is so wrong about the Rollins contract?
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What is so wrong about the Rollins contract?
David Murphy
Among the litany of complaints that I have heard about this Phillies team, the one that confuses me most involves the four-year, $38 million deal that Jimmy Rollins signed this offseason. I expounded on that confusion in today's Daily News, which you can read here. Now is an interesting time to have this discussion, because the last time the Phillies played the Dodgers, Rollins was also a focal point. It was early June, and Rollins was coming off an awful two-month start to the season. The start of a four-game home series against the Dodgers brought plenty of questions from reporters about whether Rollins should continue to leadoff, or whether Juan Pierre should assume those duties. They were legitimate questions at the time. So were the questions about Rollins' contract when he signed it.
What I don't understand is how anybody can look at anything that has happened since both of those occasions and use it to denigrate Rollins.
On June 5, I wrote a column defending Rollins, pointing out that he usually hits well after June 1 and that Pierre lacked the power the Phillies needed in their lineup. Since that day, Rollins has hit .292 with a .354 on base percentage, a .569 slugging percentage, and seven home runs in 158 plate appearances. Pierre, meanwhile, has hit .277/.313/.383 with one home run in 102 plate appearances. Rollins has outperformed Pierre in every major category, yet some still think Pierre is more valuable to the Phillies' offense. Same goes for Freddy Galvis. Can somebody explain to me what, exactly they saw out of Galvis that makes them think that he would not be a huge offensive liability next season? In 200 plate appearances this season, Galvis hit .226 with a .254 on base percentage. Every time he stepped to the plate, he had a 75 percent chance of making an out. That matters. I understand the appeal of Galvis' defensive prowess and youthful exuberance. But you gotta hit.
My bigger point, though, is that Rollins is not as overpaid as you think he is.
Over the last two years, eight shortstops have signed multi-year deals worth at least $7 million per season. Here is how their current numbers compare:
| Player | Total $ | Years | AAV | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | RS |
| Derek Jeter | 51 | 3 | 17.0 | 407 | .306 | .351 | .407 | .758 | 7 | 26 | 50 |
| Jose Reyes | 106 | 6 | 17.7 | 401 | .264 | .335 | .374 | .709 | 3 | 22 | 43 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 38 | 4 | 9.5 | 396 | .262 | .317 | .421 | .739 | 9 | 34 | 52 |
| J.J. Hardy | 22.5 | 3 | 7.5 | 393 | .216 | .255 | .373 | .628 | 13 | 34 | 42 |
| Rafael Furcal | 14.0 | 2 | 7.0 | 393 | .275 | .338 | .360 | .697 | 5 | 37 | 56 |
| Alexei Ramirez | 32.5 | 4 | 8.1 | 355 | .263 | .284 | .337 | .621 | 2 | 44 | 32 |
| Erick Aybar | 40.1 | 5 | 8.0 | 335 | .267 | .305 | .383 | .688 | 2 | 44 | 31 |
The question isn't even which one of those hitters you would rather have, because Furcal and Reyes were the only ones available this offseason. The question is who is going to take the place of Rollins if you trade him away. And we haven't even mentioned the elite level defense he continues to provide.
I'm not arguing that it is a great contract. But it certainly looks better than Reyes', Ramirez's or Aybar's. Long story short, you sometimes have to overpay at premium positions. After all, there is a reason they are considered "premium."
- No sense in arguing over Rollins' effort or lack thereof ! Suffice to say, I am not the first person to question his effort.
Popups and strikeouts etc....
Combined these are usually signs of a player in a slump or a player with declining hitting skills.I believe Jimmy Rollins is in the latter.I think you would have to agree that his base stealing skills have also eroded mainly because of lack of the speed he once possessed.
Just out of curiosity - how many double plays has Rollins hit into this year ? I do not know the answer to that.
— candidly - 7 so far this year. He averages 8-9 but has has 12-14 even in really good years so I don't know that there's any trend there. — s
- candidly, one more thing: out of 13 NL shortstops with 200+ plate appearances, Rollins has the 5th lowest strikeout rate.— schmenkman
- Just fyi in case anyone's interested, this is where Rollins ranks among all players in Phillies history:
Runs: 3rd
Hits: 4th (#1 by 2014)
Doubles: 2nd (#1 by next year)
Triples: 4th
Steals: 3rd (#2 by next year)
Total Bases: 3rd (#2 by next year)
Extra base hits: 2nd
— schmenkman - You can manipulate numbers all you want but anyone who knows and follows baseball knows this was a bad deal. Not simply b/c the Phils are old but also b/c SS was the one area they had a legit prospect ready to move up and could then look to use this $9mm elsewhere, like bullpen or outfield or resigning Hamels. His BA is too low, his steals are way down and so are his BB's and he's not a clubhouse leader as evident this 1st half whne the team needed a veteran to right the ship since the manager is brain dead. All I have to say is last year they Phils had a better record in games started by Valdez vs Rollins....and it was a large sample size. W's are the stat I'm most concerned with and I don't see a lot of them this year.— JuanSamuel4prez
- JuanSamuel, so you DO think Valdez was responsible for the Phillies' pitchers having a 2.66 ERA when he played, compared to 3.10 when Rollins started. Interesting.— schmenkman
- It looks to me that in addition to his hitting woes, Rollins has lost a lot of range at Shortstop. More than 2 steps to either side and the ball is by him.— SteveS11
- If this was a 1 year 9.5mm deal then these stats certainly support the notion that Rollins is paid according to market. Does anyone want to be me that Rollins will still have 700+ OPS in the 2014 season? Will he be that much better than Galvis or a replacement player come next year or '14? That's the argument.— guyguy4
- I bet he won't have a 700+ OPS by September. It was .713 during the All-Star break. Denver is always good for one's hitting stats. — jtj06
- Murph,
Worst thing you can ever do is fudge facts, to help prove or disprove a position.
According to Baseball Reference, JRolls contract rolls like this:
3 yrs/$33M (12-14) & 15 vesting option.
That makes his salary 11 mil a year. Quite a difference. And personally although I like JRoll, I didn't think he was worth it. The team has power issues which Jimmy doesn't solve.— Cameiros - I believe Murphy was assuming that option year would be 5 million. In that case it's 11/11/11/5 = 38, divided by 4 equals an average of 9.5m.
I didn't have a big problem with the signing. If they weren't going to go for Reyes, there wasn't much left and Galvis was a complete unknown. I like Furcal but he's on the DL a lot. He seemed like a big injury risk to me.
To me, it's more about the front office realizing that these guys aren't going to improve as they age and looking at how that has affected this year. You'd want them to be thinking of ways to address the future. If you can trade a veteran, that's what you do sometimes. It's part of the game. I don't know that trading Rollins makes sense but you'd listen and see what you can get.
I'd like to see a move or two where we trade for some team's under the radar up-and-coming guy and find a way to build like that since our farm system has so many holes.— s - sill shouldn't lead off— Old German
- If you want a real comparison, look at the stats of shortstops making much less. Then you might see what fans are talking about. There are 25 other shortstops in MLB. I'm sure some are bad but others do pretty well and don't have one of the highest salaries in the league. It's the same idea with Cliff Lee so there is a precedent elsewhere. Lee had one win in the first half. Sure it's not all his fault but you can find a guy who makes a million dollars a year to get one win in half a season. They don't need to spend top dollar for every position when the incremental increase in stats is negligable.— AvoidSundanceVacations
- BEST SS IN THE GAME
- My problem with the deal is that Rollins didn't have a single other offer on the table and yet Ruben still felt obligated to give him 3 years with an option for a 4th, when he'll be 36. That's $11 mil per year for a lackadaisical, oft-injured "leadoff hitter" sporting a .250 average over the last 4 years, each of which saw the Phillies end their season earlier than the last. Combine that with some of the other headscratcher contracts doled out (Papelbon, Thome, Wigginton, Kendrick, Qualls, etc.), and now we're talkin about whether or not the Phillies actually have enough funds left to sign the best homegrown lefty this organization has ever seen. So, other than that, yeah, JRoll is the cat's meow
