The bullpen, and the economic stratification of the Phillies' payroll
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The bullpen, and the economic stratification of the Phillies' payroll
David Murphy
As we wrote in today's Daily News, the Phillies long ago reached a point where upgrading their bullpen became a necessity, not only for 2012, but for 2013 and beyond. Early in the offseason, we spent a decent amount of time looking at the potential strategies the club could pursue with regards to bolstering a bullpen that was thin on experience. We knew that they would prioritize a closer, with Ryan Madson the frontrunner. But we also assumed they would pursue some veteran depth for the seventh and eighth innings, given Jose Contreras' elbow surgery and the struggles that young set-up men Antonio Bastardo and Mike Stutes experienced in September. The Philies ultimately decided to make Jonathan Papelbon their lone significant upgrade, signing Chad Qualls to a $1.25 million deal late in the offseason.
In today's story, we noted that one of the ironies of the current administration's pursuit of a second World Series ring is that they have strayed away from the formula that won them their first title. In an attempt to quantify just how much their personnel strategy has changed, I crunched some numbers and calculated how much of their Opening Day payroll they spent on the bullpen compared to the rest of the team. I did this for 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 too. The table below breaks down what percentage of the Opening Day payroll was dedicated to the rotation, bullpen, lineup and bench in each of the last five years.
Position-by-Position Spending as % of Total Opening Day Payroll
| Pos. | 2008% | 2009% | 2010% | 2011% | 2012% |
| Rotation | 24.23 | 27.19 | 22.43 | 39.21 | 37.96 |
| Bullpen | 19.66 | 20.77 | 20.21 | 16.23 | 11.68 |
| Lineup | 52.16 | 48.03 | 53.84 | 41.94 | 46.61 |
| Bench | 3.94 | 4.01 | 3.52 | 2.63 | 3.4 |
Note: Numbers calculated using actual salaries, not Avg. Annual Value
As you can see, the amount of payroll space the Phillies spent on their bullpen has dropped in each of the last three seasons, from 20.77 percent of the total payroll in 2009, to 20.21 percent in 2010, to 16.23 percent in 2011, to 11.68 percent in 2012.
But the more significant disparity is in their resource allocation within the bullpen. Of the 11.68 percent they spent this season, 6.38 percent is dedicated to the closer. In other words, 54 percent of the money they spent on the bullpen is tied up in Jonathan Papelbon, which is easily the greatest concentration of funds of the five-year span in question.
Compounding the problem is that the next two highest-paid relievers are Jose Contreras, who opened the season on the disabled list and is back there for the remainder of the schedule, and Kyle Kendrick, who is really a spot starter/long man. Along with Papelbon, those three players account for $17 of the roughly $20 million the Phillies have dedicated to their bullpen.
Essentially, what the table shows jibes with what you have seen. Despite new contracts for Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies are actually spending 5.5 percent less on their lineup than they did in 2008, relative to their total payroll. That payroll space is now being spent on starting pitching.
Keep in mind that the lineup figures include salaries for Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, just like the bullpen includes Contreras. Take away those players, and the Phillies entered the season with roughly 38 percent of their resources tied up in the rotation, 10 percent tied up in the bullpen, and just 25 percent in the lineup, with 23 percent on the disabled list and the rest on the bench. That probably jibes even better with what you have seen.
None of this does much to explain how the Phillies have fared relative to the entire sport. To do that, we'd have to calculate how much each team has spent on its bullpen. But it does give you some sense of the way the organization's priorities have changed over the last four years.
Comments (29)
Murph, the numbers would have more meaning and be more interesting if you also provided info on how the total payroll amt., and its year-to-year percentage increase, has literally exploded over the past several seasons. That's what is really concerning, because I'd guess the Phillies' expenditures have drastically exceeded the MLB average in player compensation inflation, as well as having higher total payroll growth than almost any other team . With the numbers you've provided, one could logically say, well they increased their spending on pitching by about 5% and reduced their lineup spending by roughly the same amount, to which most people would think, well, yeah.— ijj- Theres an old saying..."you pay bananas you get monkeys" that is what happened with this bullpen issue. All the money went to a closer who can't get in ballgames cause of the long and short relief. Qualls has been washed up for two years now and Contreras has been done for one. Mix that in with depending on unproven youngsters and you have this recipe for disaster which is now in front of us. We desperatley need a veteran righty and lefty and I know you'll see a HUGE IMPROVEMENT, which in turn will lead to at least 30% more victories. Tie that in with utley, howard and doc returning and that equates.....PLAYOFFS. Mark it down BABY!!!!— Trot
- Yet you still dont propose the move or moves that you would have made to solve this issue. This article is a waste of time. Yes the bullpen has struggled mostly because they do not have a 6th-7th inning swing guy. Stutes, Defratus, Contreras, Herndon(even though he stinks), and Kendrick were all guys that could have been huge parts of the pen but they either got hurt or filled another role. Their farm system's strength was relief arms and you have really caught a bad break with injuries. Have you even checked that Qualls has not allowed a run in his last 9 appearances? How about focusing in on the inability to score runners from 2nd and 3rd with less than 2 outs, Charlies ridiculous in game and lineup maneuvers, Victorino's 4 xtra base hits in the last month, and Pence batting .100 with RISP since May. I think you'll find offensive short comings have a lot more to do with the record than the bullpen.— FABER
- The Phillies had a worse situation last year before the start of season. Lidge was hurt and they were counting on Stutes, Bastardo and Herndon. Contreras became the closer and got hurt. Bastardo and Stutes were pleasant surprises, although both faded in the second half. However, the starters pitched pretty well, deep into the games. Worley was a rookie of the year candidate and KK was pretty good as a long reliever/spot starter. This year everything seems to be the opposite. Halladay and Worley got hurt, as opposed to Blanton and Oswalt in 2011, Stutes hasn't pitch an inning and Contreras got hurt again. Lee doesn't have a win yet. Blanton has been Blanton and Kis having a tough year. As a result the young relievers have been asked to pitch in tough situations. When you have a lot of money invested in the rotation and the starting lineup, you have to get young and cheap somewhere. That's why I think the best way to fix the situation is to trade Lee and sing Hamels. Vic should go also. A quick fix (getting a reliever) might not be enough. This team is not good or discipline enough to make noise in the playoffs, even with Howard, Utley and Halladay back. See last years. Get younger and hungrier.— EL Zorro
- KK, I meant instead of Kis.
— EL Zorro - Amaro's decision to go "all in" on starting pitching, which became evident with the Cliff Lee signing, to my mind also convinced Amaro to sign Papelbon. You can't have $20 million starting pitchers go 7-8 innings and hand the ball to guys life Qualls, Schwimer or even Bastardo for the close.— eman
- Agree with above, with the starters and veteran star line up the place to save payroll is bullpen -- and AAA looked stacked between Aumont (control problems took a step back), DeFratus (had a good shot to make the team, injured...) Schwimmerand Savery (disappointing), injuries to RH pitchers have killed them (Stutes, Contreras).
Had the AAA guys stepped up, or our RH BP not be post-op right now, allowing Qualls to be a sit righty things might look different.
That said love Diekman and Valdes, Pap is a workhorse stud- add a RH Mike Adams type 8th inning reliever and this team makes the playoffs.
Myers, if they eat some salary.— WFChamps - paralysis by overanalysis. go break down medicare, use that degree where we can really stick it to corporate america. and give me a writer who can break down a broken swing, or why Qualls sinker is a stinker.— UnaBlogger
- As usual, EZ is on to something. Best to move Lee and Ms Vicki for relief help and prospects, sign Hamels and add Cloyd to 40man.— NewMick314
- First off, you can't use the argument that the last 3 year percentages are a drop off when the 1st year of that 3 year period is actually equal to the 3 year average when comparing 2008, 2009 and 2010. Secondly, averages do not tell the whole story. For example, if the total salary for 2011 was $135mm that would make the bullpen portion (@ 16.23%) $21mm for that year. If the total salary in 2012 was $180mm, the bullpen portion (@ 11.68%) would be just about the same. Using just one variable in your statistics could distort the value of what was actually spent. That being said, the bullpen still stinks!— RLTC
Those payroll stats are nice.
But heavily influenced by Brad Lidge.— zubzub- The Phils are walking on thin ice with the current payroll and urgent need to spend some money to improve. Resigning Hamels to a long-term, fair-market contract is the organization's top priority. Unfortunately, the only way to accomplish such a feat before Hamels decides to turn free agent and allow a new San Diego ownership to make him their franchise player is to trade Lee right now and free up his $25 million a year salary. Hamels is 5 years younger than Lee and is currently pitching much better. I've always liked Lee but the Phils are currently overpaying him for the mistake of prematurely trading him, and he's just not worth $25 million a year through 2016. A big chunk of that $25 million a year would be better spent on Hamels. Also, the Phils need a few major league ready prospects to add depth to their pitching, third base and catching. Lee should be able to command a boatload of top shelf talent from a number of different teams. After Hamels is resigned and Lee is traded, the Phils need to clean house of all non-essential players. Earlier today, mlbtraderumors.com reported the Phils have not put Hamels or Victorino on the trade block but could make Blanton, Wigginton and a few other players available. Nix, Qualls and a few others could also be added to the list. Top prospects are usuall what the Phils hope to acquire in trades, but such prospects haven't helped the Phils much recently. Personally, I'd rather see the Phils give up a few players to get an experienced veteran or two in return. In the past, Melky Cabrera and Gio Gonzalez could have been acquired in this fashion, and other players who could actually help the Phils right now will probably become available before the trade deadline.
- good quantitative analysis but need to say it clearly for a lot of the readers who can't read bewteen the lines and understand the implicit criticism: Rube just wasted $50 mil. on a closer, $7.6 mil. on useless awful Kendrick and thought he could then get away with bargain basement trash like Qualls, Willis and mediocre minor leaguers to comprise a bullpen... becuase this is sheer folly and obvious to any half-intelligent sportswriter or blogger, ergo Ruben is clearly incompetent— warbiscuit
- Great article Murph. Too bad Charlie "aint smart enough" to get the questions you were asking him last night about JStrolls base running (or lack thereof).— MrLincoln
- as I've said before and blogger Jim Smith suggests names in other murphy article, Broxton, Rodney, Capps, Frasor, Cordero, Dotel, Farnsworth, Hawkins, Saito were all available in the financial range of what Kendrick was signed for...there were dozens of avaiable pitchers in free agency (including Capuano as a 5th starter for example) and good g.m,'s find the undervalued ones while poor g.m.s seem to only find the overrated or awful ones— warbiscuit
- as for the $50 million closer, he has pitched poorly in 8 of his 29 appearances in which he alowed runs (6 games) or multiple baserunners ...in any event, an intelligent g.m. realizes that runs given up by his relief pitchers are just as bad in the 7th or 8th as in the 9th and doesn't blow his whole budget on a "big name" closer while relying on over-the-hill duds and unproven minor leaguers for the other 6 spots in the bullpen - I suspect the reason Amaro spent all his money on Papelbon and then tried to fill his other pithcing slots with such awful players like Qualls, Willis and Kendrick is because Amaro really has no idea how to evaluate players or talent or to figure out who is good or not.. Amaro just "knew" that Papebon was a "big name" so figured he'd just out-spend everyone for him so people shoud assume he was doing his job.. the problem comes back to Amaro being plainly incompetent with no ability to evaluate players or have any idea of their relative worth or lack thereof— warbiscuit
- I don't think Lee is going anywhere. He can block a trade to 21 teams out of the other 29 and most likely the teams on the list are the top spending teams. Kansas City, Houston, San Diego and the like are not going to trade for Lee. You can debate all day long whether it is better to have $25 Mil a year invested in Lee or $28 mil a year invested in Hamels, but Lee isn't going anywhere. IMO, you make the best offer you can for Hamels and if he says no, then he has to be traded. I just don't see how keeping him for the rest of the year and losing him to the Dodgers or someone and getting the 28th pick in the draft will help us in 2013. Trade him for a young 3B and a 5th starter type, which will help the team get younger and solve our 3B issue for next season. I just don't see how they are going to solve that without trading Hamels or Lee. I doubt a team like the Tigers is going to part with Castellanos for Victorino or Blanton.— sjuhawk416
- The areas this team needs improvements have been so obvious for so long. Does anyone else get the sense that Ruben's philosophy on trading include waiting until the last week of July so that a) the team he's trading with absorbs as much salary as possible on the players coming to Philly and b) that by waiting until the last minute any players he ships out (think Victorino, Pence, etc) can't be flipped to a team the Phils could be fighting with for a playoff spot? Now, both of these tenets make sound business sense but like I said the warts have been obvious for long enough and another business principle, that of supply and demand means he's going to be paying higher prices whenever he gets around to going shopping. And quite frankly he owes it to the ownership, the players already in the locker room, and the fans to be more pro-active. The curse of being a GM is when you raise everyone's expectations you can't turn around and say the same people are spoiled or complain about how hard it is to make changes. That's baloney. Time to get off your arse Rube.— T-Money
- Lee will accept a trade to a contender. He took less money to win a championship here. The window is closing faster than he thought. He's already frustrated, arguing with Victorino, questioning the handling of the rain delay/cancellation, him warming up, etc. You could see he's not having fun outthere. He's winless, for crying out loud. 3 stars are on the DL. Hamels and Vic could leave this year. There is not major league ready players in the farm. It's not looking very good for him here. If the Angels, Dodgers, Rangers, Yankees, Cardinals, Tigers and even the young Orioles ask for his services, he'll accept a trade. He's not getting any younger.— EL Zorro
- Lee can block a trade to 21 teams, but that doesn't mean he will. He most likely wants to win a world series and pitch where less effort on his part brings more success. He's pitched a few gems this year but was unable to win because of the Phils offense. He'd probably like to go to a contender that scores enough runs to back his play. Hamels could probably be resigned by the Phils for less than Lee is currently being paid. Given the chance to have Hamels or Lee pitching, I would take Hamels and never look back. Lee is still one of the greats, and he'd bring the Phils a lot of talent via trade, but he has been looking terribly human lately. It seems like Hamels is still on his way up while Lee has plateaued. I've always liked Lee and I would love for the Phils to find a way to keep both Hamels and Lee, but I don't see how they'd do it. Looking into the future, the Phils need to resign Hamels, and to do so, they may have no other choice than to trade Lee.
- Enough about trading Lee! The Phillies need to try to keep Lee, Hamels and Halladay together. People around this town have short memories when it comes to having to endure all the years this team had only really one good arm like Carlton and Schilling carrying the load for a whole staff! I never want to see those years again! As soon as practical, they need to rid themselves of Kendrick and Blanton. Give that money to Hamels and let Cloyd take Blanton's place. The Phillies could trade for Myers to take Kendrick's spot or back up Cloyd. Myers at this point would make less than Kendrick and Blanton, and provide the team with more talent than them. Hell, Ruben should even get Pedro ready to go again! Look at Petitte for the Yanks! Even at his advanced age, Pedro could still give the team more at a lower price than Blanton, Kendrick or Myers. Ruben needs to also bring in Tony Gwynn as an advisor and roving hitting instructor. His projects for daily instruction should be Mayberry, Victorino, Michael Martinez, Pence and Rollins. That would be money well spent! It is pitiful when these players that make good money can't get a run in from second or third base with less than one out. Last, but not least, Valdes, Bastardo, Schwimmer and Diekman should stick; and the team should hire a scout or two from the Nationals or Braves - those scouts have an eye for talent when it comes to bullpen pieces.— dross
- We shouldn't have trades lee when we did. Had we not we would have won the 09 series. We shouldn't have signed lee when we did - we had bigger holes to fill. And the papelbon move last year was a mistake too. We needed three relievers for that money. We need some levels of quantity. You can't sign every high priced vet on the market. And we need a farm system capable of developing a player who can play in the bigs. The last guy we got was Worley and he is ok. But he is not a top of the line guy. — CaptainCrunch
Comment removed.- Amaro should be fired. He has $180 million to work with and has mismanaged the players he gets with that money. To not have a starter for tomorrows game and to have a bullpen that stinks with that kind of money is pitiful. Amaros vision is obvious - win with superior starting pitching. It's not enough. It's a shortsighted approach. We should get someone in the front office that knows what they are doing.— CaptainCrunch
- How long did it take Omar Minaya to get fired from the Mets? That's about the time-frame it will take for RAJ to get fired, hate to say it. He will be given a chance to rebuild the team (I shudder as I type this) if it comes to that.— ESFjellin
- Wow, dros makes it look so simple. BTW, Myers is making $11 million this year with a vesting option of $13 millions next year and a buyout of $3 million. Even in the buy him out they will be paying him more or less what KK would make, but you get to keep KK while letting Myers go, genius. Get your facts straight.— EL Zorro
- This article really bothers me. I have been listening to analysts and experts say the Phillies have had a "change of priority" and "an emphasis on pitching" the last couple years as a way to put blame on the high payroll and a lack of exciting offense. This is simply an awful point relative to the argument itself. Yes, the Phillies have made big rotation payroll additional but one big fact remains... The Phillies hitting-linup payroll is mid $80 millions nad $28 million higher than the next highest hitting-lineup paryoll in the NL! People always complain about the Phillies didn't do anything before the start of the 2012 season. What is this? Monopoly? All the money that can be spent on the lineup is already spent. There is nothing left. Amaro and the Phillies have sunk their teeth into Howard/Utley/Rollins/Vic/Pence and there is absolutely nothing they can do about until the end of this season and especially 2013. The combined annual salaries of Howard/Utley/Rollins/Vic equal that of the second highest hitting-lineup payroll in the NL! (Braves) There is nothing left. They have to ride it out. This happens. It stinks. Remember, hindsight is 20/20. Nobody thought the core of this team would deteriate the way it has. Please remember these points the next time you go bashing Amaro for signing all the pitching.— bdd5014
- Last year, the team did pretty well relying on young, unproven relievers. You can't spend money everywhere, and the supposed strength of the Phillies' upper farm system was their relievers. Combine that with the fact that reliever performance can be notoriously inconsistent from year to year, and I don't think Amaro's approach to the bullpen was all that bad.— The Cutter
- Tired of reading about the bullpen...the overpaid starting staff is leaving this team hopeless. Lee and Hamels, both. Inconsistent and unreliable under pressure— MGB
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