Operation 88 Wins
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Operation 88 Wins
David Murphy
Gotta admit. For awhile it was interesting to watch this team on a nightly basis, because what I was watching was so unlike anything I had seen since I started to cover the beat in 2008. The offense looked like the offense that I expected. The bullpen was a bit worse. The defense? Unprecedented. In previous seasons, a team like the Astros or the Pirates or the Cubs or the Mets would arrive in town and only then would you realize just how good the Phillies were on that side of the ball. But for the bulk of this season, the Phillies have been That Team.
Anyway, last night was an exception, but it is going to have to become the norm if the Phillies hope to play their way back into postseason contention. As silly as it sounds, the playoffs are still quite possible.
We outline the complete scenario in today's column in the Daily News. The recipe starts with Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Vance Worley replicating the performances they provided in their last 56 combined starts of 2011, when they averaged 7 innings and under 2 runs allowed per outing. The Phillies went 39-17 in those 56 starts, and, well we break it down from there.
The minimum threshold I chose was 88 wins, because 14 of the last 16 teams who would have been the second NL wild card finished the regular season with at least 88 wins. But nine of those teams finished with at least 89. The 2006 Phillies were the lowest at 85.
Below is the complete win total for the woulda-been wild cards from the 16 full seasons of the wild card era:
2011: 89
2010: 90
2009: 88
2008: 89
2007: 89
2006: 85
2005: 88
2004: 91
2003: 87
2002: 92
2001: 90
2000: 86
1999: 96
1998: 89
1997: 88
1996: 88
Poll: Who will be voted first into the Hall of Fame?
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When are people going to give up. The Phillies have won their world series for this century. Maybe they will play in a world series and loose in about 30 or 40 years, but that is optimistic. Better get used to last place and hoping training camp starts soon like old times. Amaro has blown the present and the future. This team is done. And with the money it is going to cost them in lost ticket sales and the lower amount they will get for a new tv contract than expected before free fall they are going to have a payroll like a minor league team for a very long time. Hamels, Victorino, and Palanco are going to want to get out of here. So will Lee and Halliday and Ruiz and Pence. This team is going to be the doormat of the national league for a very long time.— rich729- Thanks man, I was in a bad mood all morning till I read your post, hilarious...This is not the same team we have watched for 5 great years, nor are we going to be any doormat anytime soon. If you think the Phillies are going to be out of money anytime soon, you are sadly mistaken. Teams with money buy good players, have an off year or two, then do it again. Yankee's did it, so did Boston, and they are still doing it, Marlins, Texas...We are no longer the one with the smallest wallet my grumpy friend... — TexasYankee
- When Halladay comes back they'll still have a starting rotation including Hamels, Lee and Halladay. It would pretty hard to finish last with those three healthy for the second half. A middle-of-the-pack finish is much more likely.— p-diddy
- What do you mean its not the numbers? Chemistry is beyond overrated. This team can't hit, has horrible defense(only to get worse when Utley comes back) and a weak bullpen. They have no shot at the wild card and the real question of how you can turn this around even next year or the year after lingers. They are maxed out on salary with their three best regulars: Rollins is a shell of the player at the plate then he was, Utley is toast getting dominated at single A, and Howard probably comes back and plays well. They have a very tough task ahead of them and I don't see RAJ being the guy to do it.— UncleStosh
My pick was 88 wins prior to spring training. That was with the assumption that Utley would be in the lineup at the beginning of the season and Howard no later than the beginnig of July.
Right now I believe the Phillies will have a difficult time winning the 81 games it will take to make them a .500 team. Would love to see the Rays sweep with the Pirates coming in and, at least, taking a pair. This way there would be little doubt that the window has closed and Amaro can start dismantling this team starting with deals for Hamels and Thome.
