Operation 88 Wins
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Operation 88 Wins
David Murphy
(Steven M. Falk/Staff Photographer)
Gotta admit. For awhile it was interesting to watch this team on a nightly basis, because what I was watching was so unlike anything I had seen since I started to cover the beat in 2008. The offense looked like the offense that I expected. The bullpen was a bit worse. The defense? Unprecedented. In previous seasons, a team like the Astros or the Pirates or the Cubs or the Mets would arrive in town and only then would you realize just how good the Phillies were on that side of the ball. But for the bulk of this season, the Phillies have been That Team.
Anyway, last night was an exception, but it is going to have to become the norm if the Phillies hope to play their way back into postseason contention. As silly as it sounds, the playoffs are still quite possible.
We outline the complete scenario in today's column in the Daily News. The recipe starts with Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Vance Worley replicating the performances they provided in their last 56 combined starts of 2011, when they averaged 7 innings and under 2 runs allowed per outing. The Phillies went 39-17 in those 56 starts, and, well we break it down from there.
The minimum threshold I chose was 88 wins, because 14 of the last 16 teams who would have been the second NL wild card finished the regular season with at least 88 wins. But nine of those teams finished with at least 89. The 2006 Phillies were the lowest at 85.
Below is the complete win total for the woulda-been wild cards from the 16 full seasons of the wild card era:
2011: 89
2010: 90
2009: 88
2008: 89
2007: 89
2006: 85
2005: 88
2004: 91
2003: 87
2002: 92
2001: 90
2000: 86
1999: 96
1998: 89
1997: 88
1996: 88
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Buy Phillies tickets Comments (20)
Another factor to consider is that the second wild card means that more teams will be in the hunt longer. Meaning less easy wins across the board.
88 is the number I'm looking at, but 85 or 86 might be enough.
Keep an eye on the division as well. Without a weak team in it I wouldn't be surprised if 90 wins gets first place and 80 wins gets last.— zubzub
Lee and Halladay combined might not win 15 games this year. The defense is no longer great and middle relief is shakey. The thought of Howard and Utley producing big numbers in the second half is wishful thinking. The goal of this team should be to not finish last.— farley- @farley - another Phillie's "FAN" that just doesn't get it.
- nobody that understands the game or follows the Phils is expecting tremendous production from our injured superstars when they return - it is the impact of sending Nix, Wigginton, Martinez, Mayberry back to the bench so they can serve in the roles they were acquired to serve in. The biggest problem other than the bullpen right now is the lack of depth the Phillies have past their starting eight position players. The question will be how much better will Manuel and the Phillies be pinch hitting a Wigginton, Mayberry or Nix in the right situations where now all that Manuel has to use in those same situations is Fontentot, Martinez, maybe Jim Thome. The guys (Wigginton, Pierre, Thome, Nix) are all overperforming to this point and anyone that would expect that performance over the course of the entire season is nuts. Phillies become better upon the return of Utley and Howard not by means of the production and numbers of those two players but the fact that many of the starting players find themselves where they should be - providing depth for Manuel later in the game.— michael2_19030 - 19030 said it right. Getting constant at-bats for the likes of Wigginton, Pierre and Mayberry will only help this team when they are pushed back to bench roles, even though the latter two are more of a platoon at this point. It should be interesting to see what this team does with Thome as the season progresses, they could use a power lefty off the bench, but Thome is NOT a pinch-hitter. Trading him for a bullpen righty will help.— ESFjellin
- -michael2_19030 - first, get a shorter posting name! Second, thanks for hitting the nail on the head. When you have so many players trying to fill roles they were never intended to fill, you have what we have been watching. When the Phils get into their normal spots on the field, in the batting order - and on the bench, we will be OK - not terrific, but OK.— dwp66
- @dwp66 - just MHO. This team's starting eight position players aren't that great and the bench is even worse at this point. When Howard and Utley return, regardless of their production, this Phillie's BENCH has the potential to be the best in baseball this season.
Phils just have that much better of a chance to win when Manuel can use Wiggington, Nix, Mayberry and Pierre as his first options off the bench instead of having to go to Martinez, Fontenot, Orr, Kratz, etc. as his first choice.
Maybe I'm wrong....— michael2_19030 - @dwp66 - just MHO. This team's starting eight position players aren't that great and the bench is even worse at this point. When Howard and Utley return, regardless of their production, this Phillie's BENCH has the potential to be the best in baseball this season. Phils just have that much better of a chance to win when Manuel can use Wiggington, Nix, Mayberry and Pierre as his first options off the bench instead of having to go to Martinez, Fontenot, Orr, Kratz, etc. as his first choice. Maybe I'm wrong.... (HTML deleted)— michael2_19030
- I think you can throw past history out the window. If 88 will win a wild card, do the math: the Phils now have 33 wins. To get to 88 they need 55 more wins out of a remaing total of 92 games. They would have to win 60% of the remaining games (55/92 = .596) Does that seem even remotely realistic? FUHGEDDABOUDIT.— 1republican
- I think 88 is "probably" and 89 borders on "definitely." It will be that close. To reach 88 they have to play just under .600 ball the rest of the year. To reach 89 wins, just over .600. Therein lies the big stretch: This team is currently winning at a .471 rate. So hoping for a change of 13% and that's starting now. If they realistically ramp up to that and hit it when Halladay and Howard or Utley are back, it becomes a pretty daunting task -- playing over .600 from some point in July through the rest of the year. We'll know a lot more when they hit the all-star break. They will have faced the Rays, Marlins, Mets and Braves. They really have to win 3 of those 4 series in my opinion. Maybe two if they sweep a team or two between now and then.— s
- We're suddenly optimistic because we pulled one out against the lowly Rockies? We're the team that others think of for their winnable games. Can't play Colorado all year!— burholme
- Maybe the best thing going for the Phillies could be the injury bug and limitations on players from other teams. Beachy gone for Atlanta, Strassburg on an innings limit, Santana less than stellar since his no-hitter. The grind of the season can be the great equalizer. Looking at the schedule up to the All-Star break, if the Phillies could go 12-5 against Colo,Tampa, Pitt, Fish, Mets, and Braves, I'd begin to feel more optimistic about their chances.— ijj
- One thing that not a lot of people factored in was the way the Mets have been playing. They've already handed the Phils some very damaging losses. The remaining head-to-head matchups with the Mets are going to be extremely crucial.— dasher
- The Phillies have been slowly declining since they won the world series and i cant believe management havent caught on to this. Another problem is that the other teams weve been playing have been so bad for so long that they are on the rise and we are on the fall. Its going to get worse before it gets better. On the other hand, i predict we win tonight 4-2, only one homer by Ruiz.— huntnmike3666
- Phils can't win close games with our idiot coach. 1-0 today, Worley at 100 pitches and Colvin was giving him tough abs all night. Instead of going with Bastardo and Pap for four outs each, hardly taxing, a tired worley gives up a double then a game losing HR two hitters later. We just can't afford a moron like Elmer Fudd not giving the Phils the best chances to win games...the team just isn't good enough to win in spite of him.— lazyboy
- the problem ain't in numbers; it's in vibe/energy/force-field/whatever you wish to call it. past four years you could've fine-tuned a pitch pipe on those teams' harmonious resonance. this year you can't tune a washboard. and whereas gillick made a host of mistakes in his acquisitions of performance numbers, his teams had invisible-to-the-naked-eye magic. somebody always was there to pick up the slack. those teams, the whole not only was the sum of the parts he put together, it was greater. this held for three seasons after he left here. the current team has 100% the ruben vibe: discordant, motley. he reminds one of the old scouts in moneyball: they were numbers junkies, hadn't clue-one about going for players who could work together to enhance the rhythm. hate to use the cliche, but really, the dude is clue-less.— bubba church & granny hamner
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