Phillies should not rush pitching prospect Aaron Nola

ANYBODY WHO thinks the Phillies have nothing to lose by promoting top pitching prospect Aaron Nola to the majors this season should think about the guy who spent much of last night throwing easy 96-mph fastballs off the mound at Citizens Bank Park.

In 2012, Gerrit Cole was at a similar juncture, cruising through the minor leagues after having been the Pirates' top pick in the previous June's draft, a college pitcher who was considered to be near-major-league-ready the moment his name was called. But rather than rush Cole to the majors in a season that would end with them 18 games out of first place and nine games out of a playoff spot, the Pirates kept him at Double A through the end of the year, finally promoting him a couple of months into the 2013 season.

If they had not exhibited that patience, Cole would be eligible to become a free agent after the 2019 season, and his salary likely would rise to somehwere in the neighborhood of $5 million next year. As it stands now, he will not reach free agency until after the 2020 season, and his 2016 salary will be around $600,000, giving them an extra $4 million to $5 million to spend on a roster that is built to contend (roughly what the Phillies will pay Aaron Harang this season).

Compared to the decision the Pirates faced - Pittsburgh was 10 games over .500 as late as August that year - the Phillies don't have much to think about it. Sure, Nola might very well be the Phillies' third-best starter today, with a 2.04 ERA and a sparkling strikeout-to-walk ratio in six starts at Double A Reading, but what good would that get them - 105 losses instead of 110?

Hey, grumble all you want about service time, but save your meritocratic diatribes for a sport with an economic model where young players do not subsidize older players to the extent that they do in baseball. Besides, we don't even need to be talking about service time yet. Nola is less than a year removed from college. His body is still adjusting to pitching every five days. He is 21 years old, and this might be the best chance he'll ever have to work on whatever areas of his game could use some fine-tuning. The point isn't that the Phillies should keep Nola in the minors just because it could help prolong whatever window of opportunity they enjoy down the road. The point is that the Phillies have nothing to lose by operating with maximum restraint.

"We want him to continue to have success where he is," general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told reporters yesterday. "We've had a lot of discussions on a lot of things over the last few weeks on our development people. We're trying to make sure we develop these guys for the future, not today. We try to maximize their development time so when they're ready to be in the big leagues they'll be in the big leagues. So he's not coming anytime soon."

The situation is a little different with third-base prospect Maikel Franco, who entered yesterday hitting .336/.359/.520 with three home runs in 125 at-bats. Franco, 22, is in his sixth minor league season and is in his second at Triple A, and the Phillies have already kicked the service-time can down the road about as far as is reasonable. Plus, the learning curve is generally steeper for hitters than pitchers, so Franco could need two or three seasons before realizing his potential. And if he is a complete disaster in those two or three seasons, then the Phillies can continue their search for a third baseman of the future. They already know they are going to need pitching regardless of Nola's actualization, because needing pitching is a perpetual thing in baseball.

The one thing that had the potential to keep Franco in the minors was third baseman Cody Asche, but his defense has remained an issue for a year now, and his bat has yet to convince the Phillies that it will ever carry enough of a load. After last night's game, he was sent to Lehigh Valley to play leftfield.

"He's getting closer and closer," Amaro said of Franco. "We just want to make sure he's ready to be a big leaguer for a long time when we bring him to the big leagues."

As for Nola, there seems to be much less question about his eventual aptitude for the big leagues. Franco has a higher ceiling, but also a lower floor. Scouts and personnel executives almost unanimously view Nola as a safe bet to become a capable No. 3 or No. 4 starter, even if he lacks top-of-the-rotation stuff. For now, the Phillies might as well give him every opportunity to raise that ceiling instead of the opportunity to become just another pitcher frustrated with his run support.