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A.J. Burnett scenarios

A.J. Burnett has 5 days to notify the Phillies whether he will exercise his 2015 player option. There are other possibilities.

Phillies starting pitcher A.J. Burnett. (Yong Kim/Staff Photographer)
Phillies starting pitcher A.J. Burnett. (Yong Kim/Staff Photographer)Read more

THE FREE-AGENT season opens for business with the conclusion of the World Series but doesn't begin to pick up until the first 2 weeks of November.

Teams have until 5 days after the conclusion of the World Series - which means Monday night - to make qualifying offers to their own free agents. Those players have another week to mull over accepting those offers; players almost never accept, since the free-agent market is very often far more fruitful.

The Phillies will know a little bit more about their own free-agent pursuits - their needs and their budget - when another deadline arrives on Monday.

Within 5 days after the conclusion of the World Series - the seventh and final game took place last night - A.J. Burnett must notify the Phillies whether he will exercise the 2015 player option in his contract.

Burnett, who turns 38 in January, can return for a second season with the Phillies if he chooses to pick up the $12.75 million player option in the contract he signed last February. The option, originally for $7.5 million, rose more than $5 million since Burnett was able to make at least 32 starts during the 2014 season.

But after making his final start on the penultimate day of the Phillies' season, Burnett was uncertain whether he wanted to come back for what would be his 17th big-league season.

"There are too many things," Burnett said of what goes into a decision. "Off the bat, my family. It's ultimately going to come down to me. I had the same thoughts last year. Then I woke up and I wanted to compete. So I can't just shut that down if it's still there. But then again, my [kids], they have a say in it."

Burnett, a free agent last winter, flirted with retirement for most of the offseason before informing teams in mid-January that he wanted to pitch again.

It's possible he could go that route again this winter, which would mean turning down a guaranteed $12.75 million. But with big-league teams constantly in need of pitching, Burnett could still fetch a decent paycheck while also jumping from a last-place team to a contending one this winter.

There would appear to be three scenarios that could unfold for Burnett this winter:

1. Within the next 5 days, Burnett tells the Phillies he'll be back.

If this happens, the Phillies have a five-man rotation in place with Burnett, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, David Buchanan and Jerome Williams - although the guess here is they'd still sign another starter for inventory purposes. It also means the Phillies would have nine players over age 30 each due to make $8 million or more in 2015.

Burnett did not pitch up to his $16 million salary in 2014, when he was 8-18 with a 4.59 ERA; he led baseball in earned runs, walks and losses. But if the alternative is to sign a second- or third-tier starting pitcher to a much larger contract (in the $30 million neighborhood), perhaps the Phillies would be in better shape for 2016 if they suck up Burnett's paycheck for 2015.

2. Within the next 5 days, Burnett declines his player option.

Given Burnett's uncertainty of whether he'd pitch last winter, when he mulled retirement, this option seems likely, even if it translates into ripping up a ridiculous amount of guaranteed money.

But even if Burnett turns down his player option with the Phillies, he could put off retirement and become a free agent. If an attractive offer presents itself in the next 4 months - say, a 1-year, $8 million deal - Burnett can still earn a handsome salary. Or he can retire, content with the more than $136 million he's earned in his career.

3. Within the next 5 days, Burnett declines his player option . . . but heads out into the sunset with a parting gift.

This would be a shrewd move on the part of Burnett, and perhaps unlikely given his friendship (and his agent Darek Braunecker's) with Phillies assistant general manager Scott Proefrock. But, as a wise man in a movie once said, "It's not personal, Sonny. It's strictly business."

In this scenario, Burnett and the Phils take part in a staring contest in which the pitcher leads the team to believe he wants to return . . . but could be convinced otherwise with the two sides negotiating a buyout. Burnett gets $2 million-$3 million from the Phillies to become a free agent. The Phillies save about $10 million.

The Phils could also let the clock wind down and call Burnett on his bluff, however, and see if he declines the option anyway.

Coaches returning

Earlier this month, the Phillies announced they've invited all of manager Ryne Sandberg's coaching staff back for 2015. Yesterday, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. announced that the entire staff has agreed to come back.

Barring any unforeseen developments in the next 5 months, that means Larry Bowa will return to his post as bench coach, with Bob McClure as the pitching coach, Steve Henderson the hitting coach, Juan Samuel and Pete Mackanin as the base coaches, Rod Nichols as the bullpen coach and John Mizerock as assistant hitting coach.