Pitching will still be Phillies' dominant concern in 2014

TONIGHT in Lakewood, Roy Halladay will take his next step toward a return. At Lehigh Valley, Jonathan Pettibone will climb onto the mound. If Ethan Martin felt any added pressure from the circumstances, his final line didn't show it: 6 1/3 innings, two runs, six strikeouts and two walks in a 5-4 victory that gave the Phillies their first winning streak in more than a month.

Of all of the Phillies story lines there are to monitor over these next 6 weeks, the most crucial is probably the pitching. The Phillies entered last night with a 4.24 team ERA that ranked 11th in the National League. Looking forward, the known quantities number three: Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon. Together, they account for about $60 million of annual payroll, but only 25 percent of the 12 pitchers the Phillies usually carry. Identifying the other nine could very well determine whether they are able to contend next season. It continued last night.

To focus on pitching might be counterintuitive, given the epic struggles of an offense that entered last night averaging only 3.73 runs per game, second-fewest in the National League and nearly three-quarters of a run less than what they averaged in 2011. But the Phillies also entered the night allowing an average of 4.58 runs per game, nearly a run-and-a-half more than the 3.27 they held opposing offenses to en route to winning 102 games and fifth straight National League East Division title in 2011. Besides, there is a strong chance that what you see right now is what you will get out of the Phillies' offense. Apart from the returns of Ryan Howard and Ben Revere from the disabled list, there are few options for upgrading the lineup between now and April. Revere, Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Domonic Brown are all on board. Darin Ruf continues to make his case for some sort of role. Cody Asche remains a work in progress, but has more upside than most of third basemen who will be available in free agency.

The Phillies' best chance at avoiding at repeat of 2013 is to field a pitching staff that can make a subsistence offense work. A quick look back a couple of seasons shows that their most significant regression has occurred on the mound, where Lee's team-leading 3.19 ERA would have ranked fifth on the 2011 team that led the majors with 102 wins. That season, the Phillies had three starters finish with ERAs under 2.80, all of whom logged at least 216 innings. That is unlikely ever to happen again in franchise history. But they might not need it to happen. The goal is no longer 102 wins. Fifteen fewer, and they still have a shot at a playoff berth.

Rebuilding this pitching staff will take some shrewd maneuvering and some good fortune. Good fortune means more of last night, when Martin cruised through six innings then sputtered in the seventh, allowing a monster home run to Troy Tulowitzki on a hanging slider and a loud double to Todd Helton before departing. Justin De Fratus stranded two runners by getting a line out and a strikeout. In the eighth, Jake Diekman struck out Todd Helton and Nolan Arenado with the tying run in scoring position.

Where the Phillies go with their bullpen will depend on what they do with their rotation. Martin still looks as if he will end up being more valuable as a late-innings reliever than a back-of-the-rotation starter. Kyle Kendrick is eligible for arbitration one more time and probably is worth retaining at a price tag that will sit in the $7 million to $10 million range. The Phillies need a dramatic increase in production out of the Nos. 3 and 4 spots in their rotation, with Kendrick's current level of production providing a manageable No. 5.

Heading into the season, the top two pitching prospects in the organization were 21-year-old Jesse Biddle and 23-year-old Adam Morgan. Morgan likely would have been in position for an extended look in the majors if not for a small tear in his rotator cuff that forced him to the spend 2 months on the disabled list. Since returning to Triple A, Morgan has allowed only six runs in 24 2/3 innings in six starts. But he has only 15 strikeouts against nine walks, a significant dip for a pitcher who averaged 5.00 strikeouts-per-walk last season at Class A Clearwater and Double A Reading. Questions about the shoulder should keep the Phillies from penciling him in to their rotation for 2014.

Biddle has had better luck this year, his first at Double A, but he is still too raw to consider for a major league roster spot out of spring training. In his last 16 starts, the lefty has walked 48 batters and hit three with pitches in 81 innings, with a 4.44 ERA.

If the Phillies are going to get better, they likely will have to do it via free agency. The market is projected to be short on elite options (righthander Matt Garza and Ervin Santana are as good as it gets) but long on middle-of-the-rotation veterans (Bronson Arroyo, A.J. Burnett, Scott Feldman, Jason Hammel, Paul Maholm, Ricky Nolasco, Jorge De La Rosa) and bounce-back candidates (Tim Lincecum, Josh Johnson, Edinson Volquez, Colby Lewis, Shaun Marcum, Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Kazmir, and, of course, Halladay).

For now, they'll continue to look for a pleasant surprise from within.

On Twitter: @ByDavidMurphy

Blog: ph.ly/HighCheese