For Phillies, a lot riding on Roy Halladay's performance Sunday

CLEARWATER, Fla. - Roy Halladay talked for quite some time after his turbulent 2 2/3 innings Tuesday against the Detroit Tigers.

He insisted that his lack of velocity and loss of command could all be dismissed as by-products of a tired arm and body. He had a different workout routine this offseason and threw two bullpens between his March 6 start against Washington and his infamous March 12 assignment against the Tigers.

He was overcome by lethargy.

Manager Charlie Manuel and pitching coach Rich Dubee weighed in, too.

In expressing his concern, Manuel also said he still had to keep sending Halladay out there because the pitcher insisted he was healthy.

Dubee, concerned Tuesday, described Halladay's bullpen session as "fabulous" and "wonderful" on Thursday.

Words do not matter now.

Sunday, it will be all about Halladay's arm action when the Phillies play the Baltimore Orioles at Bright House Field. The game will not count in the standings, but the impact of Halladay's performance could go a long way toward determining the Phillies' quest to return to the postseason. This will certainly be one of the Phillies' most meaningful spring-training games in recent history.

Plenty of big-league scouts will be seated behind home plate, and they will all be eager to see if the seven-hit, six-run, four-walk performance against Detroit was something more than a tired day at the office for Doc. They'll have their radar guns in hand, waiting to see if the pitcher's signature cutter is crossing home plate faster than the 84 to 87 m.p.h. hour it was clocked at Tuesday.

The scouts had their opinions after Halladay's last start.

"A lot of pitches in that arm," one said.

"You just never know when a guy is going to get old," another said.

That is so true.

Duane Ward, at 29, was the main reason the 1993 Toronto Blue Jays beat the Phillies in the 1993 World Series. He consistently got hitters out in the late innings when Mitch Williams could not. After that World Series, Ward threw 103 pitches in four games the remainder of his career.

Halladay, 35, has often seemed immortal during his career with the Blue Jays and Phillies. He has always been as fit as a Navy SEAL and better prepared than a White House dinner. In his first two seasons, he provided the Phillies with enough great starts and memories to last a lifetime.

But for the second straight spring training, the two-time Cy Young Award winner's velocity is down, and it was obviously was not a good omen last year. Whenever the Phillies listed the reasons they failed to win a sixth straight National League East title, it never took them long to get to Halladay, who spent seven weeks on the disabled list.

Even without Halladay at his best, however, the Phillies were better with him. They were 25-23 the day he made his last start before being shut down with shoulder soreness. By the time he returned, they were 40-51. After his return, they were 41-30. The team went 14-11 in Halladay's starts.

Halladay's absence, combined with Vance Worley's injury-related ineffectiveness, tested the depth of the Phillies rotation. Yes, the bullpen was bad for a long stretch of the season and the defense was worse, but if the Phillies would have had four aces - Worley being the fourth - the way they did the season before, they still would have made it back to the postseason.

After Aaron Cook and Rodrigo Lopez made spring-training appearances last week, Dubee said he liked the presence of the two veteran righthanders who have started a combined 439 games in the big leagues. Dubee said he liked the prospect arms attached to Ethan Martin, Jonathan Pettibone, and Adam Morgan.

More than one of the above five starting pitchers will probably be counted on in a big way at some point. That's just the way it works for almost every team every season. But if the Phillies have to open this season with one of the above filling in for Halladay, the team essentially will be starting at the same place it was a year ago at this time.

Only the names will have changed. A year ago, the Phillies struggled out of the gate without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

They already know they are going to have to play the first 25 games without catcher Carlos Ruiz. If they also have to go through the first month without an effective Halladay, it would be a severe blow to a rotation that is not nearly as deep in major-league talent as it was the last two seasons.

With Worley traded to Minnesota, Kyle Kendrick has deservedly gone from the sixth starter into the rotation. But there is not a sixth man as good as him on the staff or in the system right now. John Lannan is a respectable fifth starter, but it's important to remember that he is in Philadelphia only because he was not deemed good enough to be among the top five in Washington.

Without the real Halladay, the Phillies are far more likely to be in a world of trouble than a team headed to the World Series.