Not so fast on Phillies' Madson deal

WELCOME to the high-stakes tango that is the offseason.

Yesterday, two different versions of the negotiations between Ryan Madson and the Philllies hit the Internet. In one corner were those quoting a "baseball source" who said the ball was in the court of club president David Montgomery, who had in front of him an agreement on a 4-year, $44 million contract but had not signed off on it. Several of those reports, including ones by Sports Illustrated and Fox Sports, said that Madson would field offers from plenty of other teams, including the big-payroll Rangers and division rivals Washington and Florida.

The Phillies website, on the other hand, claimed that "sources" were saying the club had never reached an agreement with superagent Scott Boras. In fact, the website said, the Phillies are talking with Red Sox reliever Jonathan Papelbon while also carrying on negotiations with Boras.

Boras, who did not return a call from the Daily News yesterday, is well known for getting his clients top dollar. A 4-year contract with the reported terms would get the relief market off to a rollicking start. No team has signed a reliever to a deal of longer than 3 years since 2007, when the Reds gave Francisco Cordero a 4-year, $46 million deal.

Since 2008, when Brad Lidge and Francisco Rodriguez both signed 3-year contracts worth more than $12 million annually, teams have shied away from signing closers to huge deals. You could argue that had as much to do with the talent available as with general managers' willingness to spend. Relievers such as Madson and Papelbon, both of whom will be 31 next season and have strung together at least five consecutive productive seasons, have been in short supply.

Last year, the Yankees signed Rafael Soriano to a 3-year, $32 million contract. The year before, Jose Valverde signed a 2-year, $14 million deal with the Tigers. Neither had the consistency that Papelbon and Madson have shown over the last half-decade. Clearly, teams have been more cautious with the money they spend on closers, given the rapid drop-off that such players as B.J. Ryan, Eric Gagne and Lidge have experienced. But Papelbon and Madson have a better combination of age and consistent success than anybody since Rodriguez in 2008. They carry far less risk than any potential backup options, and Madson probably carries the least risk of them all, given his changeup, cutter and smooth throwing motion.

In hindsight, last offseason might have been the time to sign a reliever or two with the hope of avoiding the current all-or-nothing scenario.

Although the market lacked elite closers, a slew of veteran relievers with good strikeout rates ended up signing modest deals. Joaquin Benoit was coming off one healthy season, so a lot of people raised their eyebrows when the Tigers gave him a 3-year, $16.5 million deal. But he gave them the type of production - 61 innings, a 2.95 ERA, 63 strikeouts, 17 walks, five home runs and 29 holds with only two blown saves - comparable to what the Phillies and other teams could pay in double-digit annual average values for guys such as Madson, Papelbon or even Rodriguez.

More examples:

Scott Downs: 53 2/3 IP, 1.34 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9, .483 OPS vs. lefthanders

Jesse Crain: 65 1/3 IP, 2.62 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9

J.J. Putz: 58 IP, 2.17 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 45 saves

Grant Balfour: 62.0 IP, 2.47 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9

Jason Frasor: 42 1/3 IP, 3.60 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9

Kyle Farnsworth: 57 2/3 IP, 2.18 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 25 saves

None of the above signed for more than $15 million total, or $5.25 million per season. Granted, we are talking only about the first year of a contract for those who signed multiyear deals (everybody except Farnsworth). But most need to give you only another half a season of similar results before their production is on par with the numbers you would hope for out of the guys who could be getting paid $11 million per year.

This year, there simply aren't a lot of options. Octavio Dotel and Joe Nathan are two pitchers with upside, but both are closer to age 40 than age 30, and Nathan spent a month on the DL last year after returning from Tommy John surgery. Madson is clearly the Phillies' top option. But 4 years and $44 million is a huge commitment. Are they willing to go that high? And is that really what it will take to sign Madson?

The dance continues.