Injuries hurt some Phillies' fantasy values

It is not a good time to be a fantasy-sports owner and a Phillies fan. Most of the time, fantasy GMs are likely to draft players from their favorite teams, and Phillies fans could have put themselves into a lot of trouble this spring.

Brad Lidge was looking healthy and was being drafted 18th among relief pitchers. In the last week, however, owners have begun to jump ship: He has gone from being owned in 100 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues to 92.8 percent.

Jose Contreras, on the other hand, has seen his ownership go up 38 percent, and that number is likely to increase.

Ryan Madson's value saw a brief spike when many thought he would take over the closer's role. Now he is holding steady at about 18 percent.

This is interesting considering that Madson was one of the first non-closer relief pitchers taken in drafts and Contreras went mainly undrafted.

Those who drafted Lidge had to be quick to pick up Contreras - otherwise they could be left without a closer.

Chase Utley owners could be in for a long season. Despite missing all of spring training, Utley was still ranked sixth among second basemen heading into the season and is still owned in 99.9 percent of the leagues.

Fantasy owners may be hesitant to cut Utley loose because they hope he will be back for the second half of the season. That is something all Phillies fans, not just fantasy owners, are hoping for.

Not every fan who drafted Phillies players is being punished, however.

Jimmy Rollins' value has skyrocketed since manager Charlie Manuel decided to hit him third. Hitting in the three hole will allow Rollins to drive in more runs and benefit from the production of Ryan Howard, who hits behind him.

Perhaps the luckiest owners are those who drafted the Four Aces.

Roy Halladay is the top-ranked pitcher. The reigning National League Cy Young winner was drafted seven spots ahead of Tim Lincecum, who is the second pitcher taken in most drafts.

Halladay averaged 118.5 strikeouts per season from 2004 to 2007. In the last three seasons, however, he has vastly improved, averaging 211 strikeouts per season.

But wins is the statistic lifting Halladay to the top spot.

While most numbers in fantasy leagues don't necessarily reflect the success of a player's team, a win is a win. Fantasy owners and Phillies fans alike can agree on that.

Many analysts had the Giants rotation pegged as the best in baseball before the Phillies' acquisition of Cliff Lee, so it is interesting to compare the draft results of the two starting staffs.

Matt Cain, the Giants' second starter, is being drafted at about the 75th pick, while Lee, who will go second for the Phillies, is going about 20th. All four of the Phillies starters are going higher than Cain, with Hamels going 63d and Oswalt going 71st.

Even more staggering, there are 17 teams who don't have a pitcher being drafted higher than any of the Four Aces. The Marlins' Josh Johnson and the Braves' Tommy Hanson are the only pitchers in the NL East going ahead of them.

Just like Phillies fans, fantasy owners seem to place most of their faith in the starting rotation. And while injuries can hurt your team, there is always a Contreras there to pick you up.

Sometimes, fantasy does mirror reality.

Positional draft results from ESPN.com. The number on the right is the player's average overall draft spot.

STARTING PITCHERS

1. Roy Halladay (PHI) - 7.8
2. Tim Lincecum (SF) - 14.1
3. Felix Hernandez (SEA) - 15.2
4. Cliff Lee (PHI) - 19.5
13. Cole Hamels (PHI) - 63.4
19. Roy Oswalt (PHI) - 71.4

FIRST BASE

1. Albert Pujols (STL) - 1.1
2. Miguel Cabrera (DET) - 6.8
3. Joey Votto (CIN) - 10.1
8. Ryan Howard (PHI) - 27.3

SECOND BASE

1. Robinson Cano (NYY) - 6.9
2. Dustin Pedroia (BOS) - 28.2
3. Dan Uggla (ATL) - 35.2
6. Chase Utley (PHI) - 63.9

CATCHER

1. Joe Mauer (MIN) - 26.7
2. Victor Martinez (DET) - 43.1
3. Buster Posey (SF) - 44.6
12. Carlos Ruiz (PHI) - 215.8

SHORTSTOP

1. Hanley Ramirez (FLA) - 2.4
2. Troy Tulowitzki (COL) - 9.7
3. Jose Reyes (NYM) - 36.6
5. Jimmy Rollins (PHI) - 64.6

OUTFIELD

1. Carl Crawford (BOS) - 4.2
2. Ryan Braun (MIL) - 8.6
13. Jayson Werth (WAS) - 47.6
21. Shane Victorino (PHI) - 78.3
57. Raul Ibanez (PHI) - 215.8
71. Domonic Brown (PHI) - 260

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