Phillies deserve a dash of optimism

CLEARWATER, Fla. - There is a thin line between being picky and holding high standards, between being constructive and being critical, between dwelling on the negative and looking for places to improve.

We in the media tend to straddle that line on a daily basis, particularly when it comes to a team whose checking account has raised expectations to heights never before seen.

While focusing on a multitude of legitimate questions that surround this Phillies team - the ailing right knee of Chase Utley, the injured shoulder of Brad Lidge, an offense that endured some epic stretches of impotence last season - we can sometimes ignore an important fact:

Things can go better than expected, too.

During a Grapefruit League finale that served as little more than a prelude to the flight back North, the Phillies seemed intent on proving just that.

In the fifth inning, the likely starter in rightfield launched a monstrous home run that bounced off the top of the Tiki Bar in leftfield.

In the third inning, the veteran leftfielder continued to flash the alley-to-alley power that was so often lacking in 2010, lining a double to right-centerfield.

In two plate appearances, the candidate to start at second base singled and walked and went on to score two runs.

The centerfielder went 2-for-3 with two RBI and a run scored, raising his Grapefruit League average to .323, and the veteran righthander pitched another scoreless inning.

Ben Francisco, Raul Ibanez, Luis Castillo, Shane Victorino, Danys Baez: All question marks coming into the spring, all using their final game of spring training, a 7-6 Phillies' win over the Astros, to provide some sense of optimism for the upcoming season.

A rebound season by Ibanez could hold the biggest key to replacing Utley, whose continued battle with tendinitis and bone inflammation will see him start the season on the disabled list. Consider: Last season, Ibanez hit .245 with a .734 OPS and six home runs in 73 games before Utley tore a ligament in his thumb on June 28. The previous year, Ibanez was hitting .312 with a 1.027 OPS with 22 home runs at the same juncture.

Nobody expects Ibanez to replicate his unprecedented hot streak at the start of the 2009 campaign. But he is now more than a year removed from the serious abdominal surgery he underwent last offseason, and his strength and physical conditioning are light years from where they were at the start of last season. If that can translate into a season on par with his career norms - a .284 average, .823 OPS and 22 home runs-per-162 games - he could provide a solid replacement for the Phillies' usual three-hole hitter.

Then there is Francisco. Heading into the spring, he and rookie Domonic Brown were the top two contenders to fill the void created by Jayson Werth's free-agent departure. Francisco is not the base-runner or defender that Werth was. And it is hard to imagine that he can match Werth's .296 average, .921 OPS and 27 home runs from a year ago. But in the two seasons in which Francisco logged at least 400 plate appearances, he hit .262 with a .774 OPS. The 30 home runs he hit during that stretch equate to 20 over a 162-game season. Again, those numbers are hardly Werthian. But they are adequate. And if Francisco continues to swing the way he has this spring - a .385 average and five home runs during Grapefruit League play - he just might be able to improve on them.

Castillo, meanwhile, is not even guaranteed to make the team. Signed last week after an unceremonious release from the Mets, he has not had much time to prove himself to the Phillies. It remains to be seen how the Phillies feel about his defense and baserunning ability. But he has shown his usual selectivity at the plate, drawing walks and slapping singles, and he is just 1 year removed from a season in which he hit .302 with a .387 OBP in 142 games. If he can come close to his career .368 OBP and prove that his dismal 2010 was mostly the result of his struggles with foot injuries, he could provide an important dose of patience at the top of the Phillies' order.

They are ifs. Big ones, in some cases. Still, unknowns can be just as alluring as they can be scary.

The Phillies are counting on older players - Ibanez, Castillo, Jimmy Rollins, Baez - to bounce back from subpar seasons. They are counting on younger players - Francisco, Victorino - to achieve a level of consistency that they have not yet displayed. They are counting on Utley to return to the lineup at some point during the first few months of the season.

A lot can go wrong. But with four elite-level starting pitchers and a veteran-laden team that has always proven to be a rising tide, there is also a lot that can go right.

Spring training is over. In 3 short days, the real test begins.

For more Phillies coverage and opinion, read David Murphy's blog, High Cheese, at www.philly.com/HighCheese.

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http://twitter.com/HighCheese.