On Oct. 31, 2008, after the Phillies won the World Series, rivers of red - caps, sweatshirts, jerseys, and jackets - lined Broad Street as Budweiser Clydesdales, pulling a wagon with leftfielder Pat Burrell, led a caravan of trucks carrying players, coaches, executives, ball girls, and broadcasters - including since-departed legend Harry Kalas.

Rowdies on rooftops. Tangles of truants. Gawkers at office windows. Gridlocked groups on side streets. Media helicopters. And lots of police. They all joined a human-sardine production line that stretched for miles.

"The streets were so crowded, it was unbelievable," said Phillies pitcher Brett Myers.

What's unbelievable is the oft-quoted estimate that two million people turned out.

No one will ever know for sure, but even half that might still be too high.

The time has come to rein in such outlandish estimates. And not just in Philadelphia.

"Nobody wants the truth in a circumstance like this," said Joel Best, a University of Delaware sociologist and the author of Damned Lies and Statistics, explaining that exaggerations result from a "hometown boosterism effect."

Up to 1.5 million on the Ben Franklin Parkway for a 1984 fireworks concert? An Inquirer analysis before 2005's Live 8 concert showed the area can comfortably hold at most 400,000.

Even Barack Obama's sprawling inaugural extravaganza fell short of two million, though it did set a District of Columbia record with 1.8 million people, according to the National Park Service.

"Two million is a considerable stretch beyond my imagination, but I know it is possible in India during the period of the Kumbh Mela religious festivals," said crowd-estimating expert Clark McPhail, professor emeritus of sociology at the University of Illinois.

Contrary to media reports, no official estimate was released for last year's Phillies parade.

"Nah, we never gave anything official. We didn't really have any estimate," said Lt. Frank Vanore, a police spokesman.

"We did not establish . . . any official number," said Doug Oliver, spokesman for Mayor Nutter. "The two million was floated around, and we've never refuted nor confirmed."

Police have a term for unscientific estimates - SWAG, for "stupid, wild-ass guesses," said McPhail. The most precise yardstick is to find an actual count, like ticket sales, he said.

For the Phillies parade, that existed only for the crowds at ceremonies at Citizens Bank Park and Lincoln Financial Field. Neither was filled, however, according to reports and a check of YouTube videos. Since the two facilities together hold about 110,000 people, 100,000 attendees would seem a generous "ballpark" figure.

Otherwise, to calculate a crowd, McPhail said, one needs to determine the area occupied, and factor in an estimate of how tightly people were packed.

Such an analysis quickly deflates the notion that two million people crammed the sidewalks and curbs along the official parade route - from 20th and Market Streets to Broad Street to Pattison Avenue to Citizens Bank Park.

Along that four-mile stretch - about 21,000 feet - crowds packed about 20 to 25 feet wide on each side. Suppose crowds were 30 feet deep on each side - allowing spillage over the curbs or extra room in more open spots - making 60 feet total, counting both sides.