Consensus: Phillies will beat Dodgers again

BILL CONLIN

THE LAST TIME most Phillies played six-inning games, they were age 12 and the fences were 180 feet away. Now they have to do it as defending World Series champions. Or so we are told by the "smart-money" guys, who told us a year ago that the Cubs and Angels would meet in the Series. This year, they told us the Cardinals would make quick work of a Dodgers team that barely hung on to win the NL West from the hard-charging Rockies.

I respect the Dodgers' deep bullpen. I also respect the way the Phillies save their best swings for hard throwers like Joe Torre's closer, Jonathan Broxton. Then there's that left-on-left thing. Check Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez against lefthanders this season. Utley: .288 (vs. .279 against righthanders), .417 on-base percentage, and .545 slugging percentage; Ibanez: .285 (vs. .267 against righthanders), .359 on-base percentage, .639 slugging percentage. Good luck with that, Joe.

Phillies in 6
 

SAM DONNELLON

I picked Colorado to beat the Phillies, because it was the best team in the National League coming into the postseason. It reminded me a lot of the Phillies the year before: good, young starters, a potent lineup, a bullpen that suffocated you at the end.

But the Phillies of 2008 did not have to face a team like the Phillies of 2009. For all their regular-season faults, the Phillies had championship experience and they drew from it heavily in beating the Rockies. From a character standpoint, that ninth-inning rally Monday night was not unlike their Game 4 victory in the NLCS a year ago, or their extra-inning victory in Game 3 of the World Series, after they had coughed up a 4-2 lead.

I have no doubt the Dodgers are better than they were a year ago. But they played mediocre baseball for a large part of the second half, almost lost first place to the Rockies in that last week. Did they right themselves against St. Louis? Or did they beat a team that was not unlike the Cubs of a year ago? A team that, like the Cardinals, was much more dangerous in August than in October.

So, it says here the Phillies prevail. But only by winning a seventh game, in LA.

Phillies in 7
 

PAUL HAGEN

The Dodgers are a much better team than the one that lost to the Phillies in five games in the 2008 NLCS. The staff had an earned run average of 3.41 and held opponents to a .233 batting average. Both were the lowest in the majors. And pitching generally rules in the playoffs.

Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier have blossomed. The Dodgers have home-field advantage in the series and went 51-30 at Dodger Stadium during the regular season and 2-0 in the NLDS. On paper, they should probably win.

But, as Dodgers manager Joe Torre said: "There are certain things that go on in the postseason that you can't explain. The Phillies once again showed the ability against the Rockies to come up big when the situation called for it. They got breaks, but also took advantage of them.

Phillies in 7
 

MARCUS HAYES

In an odd way, it could all come down to Scott Eyre.

Late in what should be close games, the Phillies' potent lefthanded bats could well be rendered impotent by George Sherrill.

So, can Eyre do the same . . . especially to recent Phillies nemesis Andre Ethier?

Mostly, yes.

Phillies in 6
 

RICH HOFMANN

The Phillies love the tightrope. The Phillies love the late innings. The Phillies are riding this great karmic wave.

But they need to do it differently this time.

They need leads. They need early leads. Everybody knows the blueprint: score early on the Dodgers' starters or risk emasculation by the Dodgers' bullpen. That bullpen is better than last year's. The Dodgers' bench is better than last year's. This series will be harder than last year's. Still, the better overall team will win.

Phillies in 7
 

DICK JERARDI

The Dodgers have the profile of a team that wins in the postseason's modern era. They led the NL in batting average and left the fewest runners on base. Even though the Dodgers had 79 fewer homers than the Phils, they scored only 40 fewer runs. They don't waste at bats and, if they have the lead late, they win. Their bullpen is very difficult to beat.

The bullpen, power, speed and Cole Hamels were the strengths of the Phillies team that beat the Dodgers in the 2008 NLCS. They still have the power and speed. Anybody who watched the Phils this season knows the bullpen and Hamels are question marks.

The Phillies clearly have the better regular lineup, but the Dodgers, a combination of home-grown young talent and selectively acquired veterans, are a very well constructed team.

The Dodgers are a team on the rise. The Phillies are a proven championship team. This figures to be close. Is it the champs or the team trying to get there?

Dodgers in 7
 

DAVID MURPHY

Heading to Dodger Stadium yesterday, I was prepared to pick the Dodgers in seven games. But then Joe Torre announced that Vicente Padilla would start Game 2. I know he pitched a gem against the Cardinals in the NLDS, but the last time he faced the Phillies, they scored seven runs off him. Is Padilla the key to the series? No. But after Cole Hamels rediscovers his groove at perhaps his favorite major league ballpark, a Game 2 victory will be the back-breaker.

Randy Wolf and Hiroki Kuroda will give the Phillies problems, and Clayton Kershaw could beat Hamels the second time around. But I see this ending with Cliff Lee on the mound.

Phillies in 6