Inside the Phillies: Logging first half of Phils' season

All winter and through spring training, the baseball world wondered: Will the Phillies be able to repeat as World Series champions? That central question has not yet been resolved, of course, but with a half-season now behind it, the team has answered several others.

So what did we learn about the Phillies in the first half?

The competition stinks. Perhaps the most relevant fact of all about the Phils is external to them. Despite their myriad flaws and holes, the Phillies are competing in a division of overwhelming mediocrity. How bad are the Mets, Braves, Marlins, and Nationals? The Phillies recently lost 12 of 15 games, enduring a stretch that could have left them buried in the standings. But no one could take advantage. The Phils, who would have difficulty winning any other division in baseball, will likely take this one by default. And once you get into the playoffs . . .

Ryan Howard is not quite playing like an elite first baseman: Howard is a superstar in Philadelphia, but is he one of the top first basemen in the league? Charlie Manuel is a loyal man and found a way to take his guy to the All-Star Game, but take a look at this alarming number: .328. That was Howard's on-base percentage through the first 81 games of the season, and it is unacceptable from such an important hitter in the lineup.

St. Louis' Albert Pujols, San Diego's Adrian Gonzalez, and Milwaukee's Prince Fielder all have prodigious power comparable to or better than Howard's, and all have on-base percentages above or close to .400. Howard also has the lowest slugging percentage of the four, a far more telling power statistic than runs batted in. Yes, his defense has been excellent, and yes, he's known to perform better late in the season. But in the first half, Howard has not played like an all-star, MVP candidate, or great cleanup hitter.

Jayson Werth is passing the test: Manuel has said many times that this season is a chance for Werth to prove he is an everyday outfielder. Despite a long slump in May that stretched into June, Werth's first-half numbers make him a valuable member of the lineup. On pace to easily push 40 home runs, hit about .260, and finish near the team lead in on-base percentage, Werth has quietly provided exactly what the Phillies needed, a righthanded power threat in the middle of the lineup. He might never overcome the stretches of inconsistency that keep him from being a superstar on the level of a Chase Utley, but Werth has quietly become one of the most valuable rightfielders in the league.

Shane Victorino, and maybe even Werth sometimes, should be leading off: Loyalty and trust have helped Manuel to earn the respect of most in the Phillies' clubhouse, and the manager has shown heaping tablespoons of those qualities in dealing with Jimmy Rollins. But despite Rollins' speed and potential for electricity - "he's got a little bit of what I like to call slick," Manuel likes to say - Rollins does not work the count and has not reached base nearly enough this year to bat leadoff in a lineup this good. Werth, because of his patient approach, speed and on-base skills, would be an intriguing leadoff hitter, but his righty bat is needed in the lefty-heavy heart of the order. That leaves Victorino, whose on-base percentage is more than 100 points higher than Rollins'.

Rollins' defense remains stunningly good, his bat is potentially powerful, and his season is improving. But he has the lowest on-base percentage of any Phillies regular, making him unfit to lead off for the team in 2009.

Chase Utley could end up having an all-time season: After undergoing hip surgery in November, Utley faced questions about whether he could play in April. Not only was he healthy on opening night, but he has also excelled this year, putting together the first half of what could end up ranking among the top seasons ever for a second baseman.

Look at two of the better second-base seasons, and compare Utley's midterm scores: In 1990, Chicago's Ryne Sandberg batted .306, with 40 home runs and a .354 on-base percentage. In 2000, San Francisco's Jeff Kent finished with a .334 batting average, 33 home runs, and a .424 OBP. Through 81 games, Utley's numbers were .307/20/.427. If he remains healthy and consistent, Utley will continue to build a case to be considered among the all-time greats at his position.

Of course, that is just a sampling of what we have learned.

Some other important lessons: Carlos Ruiz, after a strong start, might be regressing to the mean offensively; Raul Ibanez's groin injury proved that signing older players, no matter how talented, is very risky; Brad Lidge has demonstrated just how elusive bullpen success is from one year to the next; the Phils made the wrong decision in naming Chan Ho Park their fifth starter and wasted seven starts that could have gone to J.A. Happ.

And then, there is the big thing we haven't learned: Who the Phillies actually are - potential dynasty or team that became hot at the right time last year. Manuel offered an interesting comment toward the end of the recent ugly road trip: "Maybe we just hit a real good streak [last year] where we played consistent, and that was a hot streak for us. Kind of like Colorado two years ago. They ended the season on a real hot streak, and then they went on into the World Series. That was basically our success. If you look at it, it was a lot similar to that, except we won the World Series."

Finally, a prediction: Manuel is not convinced that the Phillies are a truly great team, and he is right to hold judgment. But they are good enough, and will make the playoffs, though they will have trouble advancing unless the front office succeeds in its continued efforts to bolster the rotation. Recently both Rollins and Lidge have shown improvement, and they will propel the Phillies to a better second half than the first. And remember, once the yearly postseason crapshoot begins, anyone can win.

The Good and the Bad

Single-season record for home runs by a second baseman:

42      Rogers Hornsby, St. Louis, 1922

Davey Johnson, Atlanta, 1973

20      CHASE UTLEY, PHILLIES, first half of 2009

Leaders, on-base plus slugging (OPS), NL rightfielders

(through Thursday)

1.       Brad Hawpe         Colorado             .977

2.       Justin Upton          Arizona               .915

3.       JAYSON WERTH         PHILLIES             .894

On-base percentage, NL first basemen (through Thursday)

1.    Albert Pujols               St. Louis          .458

2.    Prince Fielder               Milwaukee         .433

3.    Nick Johnson                Washington         .411

4.    Lance Berkman             Houston          .404

5      Todd Helton                Colorado         .396

6.   Adrian Gonzalez             San Diego         .396

7.   Derrek Lee                Chicago            .354

8      James Loney                Los Angeles      .354

9.   Casey Kotchman            Atlanta            .346

10.   Adam LaRoche             Pittsburgh         .345

11.   RYAN HOWARD               PHILLIES            .332

12.    Jorge Cantu               Florida            .326