Donnelly: How the Belmont will be run

Former Inquirer handicapper Craig Donnelly analyzes the field for Saturday's 148th Belmont Stakes with a purse of $1,500,000, contested at 1 1/2 miles. Post time at Belmont Park is 6:37 p.m. on NBC10.

Field in Post Position Order

1. Governor Malibu

Improving and consistent stretch-runner has never finished out of the money and appears live long shot. Trainer Christophe Clement and jockey Joel Rosario combined to interrupt California Chrome's Triple Crown hopes with Tonalist two years ago.

2. Destin

Among many in the 20 horse Kentucky Derby field who encountered some kind of traffic problems. He has won over the Belmont course last year but his two stakes successes were garnered in softer company at Tampa Bay.

3. Cherry Wine

One might assume since he was rapidly gaining in the Preakness that the added five-sixteenths of a mile should work in his favor. Possibly so but he must rely on others to establish a pace scenario that will set up his late charge.

4. Suddenbreakingnews

Showed serious energy in the final stages of the Derby, passing 14 opponents despite congestion. Rider switch to Hall of Famer Mike Smith (inducted 2003). Smith, at age 50, has ridden a pair of Belmont Stakes winners.

5. Stradivari

Competed well from extreme outside post on very wet track at Pimlico despite making just his second start of season. Displayed major talent at two venues and his daddy, Medaglia d'Oro, came within half-length of capturing this event 14 years ago behind the 70-1 Sarava.

6. Gettysburg

This grey colt, with some of his ownership also connected with Exaggerator, was entered to ensure an honest pace for the late-running favorite. Known as a "rabbit," this tactic was employed in the past for the great Damascus (Hedevar) and Buckpasser (Great Power).

7. Seeking the Soul

Just defeated solid group of maidens in Kentucky 13 days ago with little time for further progress.

8. Forever D'Oro

Boasts recent victory over the track and pedigree to run all day but does not appear quite ready for prime time assignment.

9. Trojan Nation

Chased far behind throughout after early roughing in the Derby but his prior credentials don't inspire fear for his adversaries either. He has yet to win a race and only a sprinkle of horses over the past century have captured classics as maidens.

10. Lani

Only member of field besides Exaggerator to tackle all three legs of Triple Crown, with decent showing in Baltimore; But the cites of his best accomplishments have been in Dubai and Japan, many miles away.

11. Exaggerator

Liked him in Preakness but must concede he received perfect trip over his preferred wet surface. Deserving favorite with explosive closing punch but 1 1/2 miles distance is a totally different game.

12. Brody's Cause

Deep stretch-runner upset Exaggerator in mud last season but raced poorly in Derby and needs for everything to go perfectly for an upset chance.

13. Creator

Excuse this $440,000 purchase's dull try in Derby when hampered by rough trip and he deserves a chance with his impressive closing kick. Winner of Arkansas Derby at competitive Oaklawn meet.

How the Belmont Stakes will be run

Gettysburg was entered to compromise the chances of other front-runners so look for him early to control a relatively quick pace. Stradivari, Seeking the Soul, and Destin should follow in closest pursuit with Exaggerator next and numerous deep closers farther behind. Moving to the far turn Stradivari takes over and moves to a clear lead. Exaggerator gets his cue to move closer and Suddenbreakingnews and Governor Malibu launch their rallies. Down the stretch Stradivari has enough left to hold off Suddenbreakingnews with Governor Malibu flattening out in third and Exaggerator racing evenly in fourth.

Craig's selections

5. Stradivari, 4. Suddenbreakingnews, 1. Governor Malibu, 11. Exaggerator

How to bet the Belmont Stakes

($80 in total wagers)

Stradivari ($20 to win). Stradivari, Suddenbreakingnews, Governor Malibu ($5 exacta box, $30). Stradivari, Suddenbreakingnews, Exaggerator ($5 exacta box, $30)