Taking a bettor look at Breeders' Cup

LEXINGTON, Ky. - The key to the Breeders' Cup for me is to identify a few races in which I feel really confident and build my bets around those opinions, keying a horse in a multirace bet and using him on top in exactas and trifectas. Price doesn't matter all that much. I just want to be right and then try to frame bets correctly.

Some of these 13 races are always impossible, and this year is no different. Not sure I have any 20-1 winners, like Work All Week last year, but I am selecting a few bombs along with what I hope are very logical winners that serve as means to an end, the end being cash, as much cash as possible.

1. Conquest Daddyo 2. Cymric 3. Hit It a Bomb

The Euros, Cymric and Hit It a Bomb are probably best, but drew terribly in the 13 and 14 posts. Visually, I thought Conquest Daddyo's only grass race was stunning. And he will be a terrific price.

1. Liam's Map 2. Red Vine 3. Valid

Loved the exacta in this race last year and love this exacta. Liam's Map would have been a contender in the Classic and just looks too fast for this group. Red Vine, a revelation since switched to dirt, has the perfect complimentary closing style behind the favorite.

1. Harmonize 2. Gliding By 3. Last Waltz

Harmonize made an eight wide move from the back to win her stakes debut after wiring another stakes. I love versatility and this filly has it. Gliding By is going to be ignored in the betting, but could complete a giant Bill Mott-trained exacta.

1. Wedding Toast 2. Yahilwa 3. Stopchargingmaria

Wedding Toast has a big edge in speed figures. Yahilwa is a sneaky longshot who appears to be sitting on the race of her life. Stopchargingmaria got into an uncomfortable situation on Travers Day.

1. Songbird 2. Tap To It 3. Rachel's Valentina

Wilmington's Rick Porter has had some really good horses, including Horse of the Year Havre de Grace and Class of 2007 3-year-old Hard Spun. Unbeaten Songbird looks to have that kind of quality. Tap To It has the right style to run second to the favorite. Rachel's Valentina, a daughter of the great Rachel Alexandra, has been perfect in two starts.

1. Lady Shipman 2. Ready For Rye 3. Undrafted

The horse that beat Lady Shipman to the lead last out had been in front 17 straight times. I don't think anybody is beating the filly to the lead this time, and I don't think anybody is going to catch her. Ready For Rye has a nice rallying style. Undrafted, Wes Welker's horse, has won some big ones, including a Group I at the Royal Ascot meeting in England this summer.

1. Super Majesty 2. Stonetastic 3. Cavorting

Super Majesty is not fast enough to keep up early, so there is a chance she could fall into a trip similar to the one she had when she blew up this summer at Los Alamitos. I loved Stonetastic in this race last year, but she got very tired. I am not sure 7 furlongs is her best distance, and she missed an Oct. 3 race at Parx because of the quarantine, but her Sept. 1 win was the best race I saw all year at Parx. Cavorting is a solid favorite.

1. Secret Gesture 2. Legatissimo 3. Hard Not to Like

This race has very little early speed, so an aggressively ridden Secret Gesture could be dangerous. Legatissimo is a deserving favorite with the great jockey Ryan Moore and will be difficult to beat.

1. Runhappy 2. Stallwalkin Dude 3. Favorite Tale

Runhappy is an absolute freak of a horse, unbeaten and essentially untested in five sprints. No telling how fast this horse could run. Stallwakin' Dude nearly beat Rock Fall in the Vosburgh and Rock Fall would have been the favorite in this race. I actually like Favorite Tale's outside draw. Work All Week won from out there last year and had a similar running style to the Parx star. I am a big Private Zone fan, but 6 furlongs is not his best distance, and he has not been training well down here.

1. Esoterique 2. Make Believe 3. Mshawish

Esoterique and Make Believe, from the barn of the great French trainer Andre Fabre, look much better than the Americans and should get suitable ground after so much rain in Kentucky this week. Mshawish is my exacta/trifecta longshot.

1. Greenpointcrusader 2. Unbridled Outlaw 3. Exaggerator

Greenpointcruasder has that giant stride that I love. His Champagne win was by far the best race any 2-year-old has run this year. I really like this horse. Unbridled Outlaw had 5 lengths of trouble in the Iroquois Stakes and still came running in the stretch. Exaggerator just needs a smart ride to make a big impact. I am against unbeaten Nyquist, who keeps winning and keeps running slower.

1. Golden Horn 2. Twilight Eclipse 3. The Pizza Man

Golden Horn, winner of France's biggest race (Arc de Triomphe) and England's biggest for 3-year-olds (the Epsom Derby) is the Euro equivalent of American Pharoah, a dominating talent that is very close to being perfect. He would have to go dramatically off form not to win. Twilight Eclipse has had so much bad luck in races that he is overdue for some good luck. The Pizza Man is nearly as good as his name, with 15 wins in 23 starts, including the Arlington Million.

1. American Pharoah 2. Honor Code 3. Frosted

I have been thinking for weeks I was going to bet against American Pharoah. He is going to get way overbet because of his incredible reputation, and I knew he was wiped out from the Travers. Well, he has recovered and looks to be set up for his best race in his last race. As in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, he has an incredible tactical advantage as absolutely the only horse with any speed. This is a brilliant field, but, other than the price, there is really nothing not to like about the Triple Crown winner. I think he controls the race and wins it. Unlike American Pharoah, many of these top older horses have been pointed specifically for this race all year. On his really good days, Honor Code is a killer. Lexington native Shug McGaughey, who trains Honor Code, has won just about every big race but the Classic. The Pennsylvania Derby winner won this race last year and nearly won it in 2013. This year's winner Frosted keeps getting better and is not without a chance. Unfortunately, Beholder had to be scratched Thursday because she bled following her gallop. "It's sad," her trainer Dick Mandella said. "It's exciting to take on a challenge like this. It's still a great race. I just wish I was part of it."

On Twitter: @DickJerardi