Materiality to spoil American Pharoah's Triple Crown bid

IF I LOOKED at these Belmont Stakes past performances in a vacuum, I would note that there is only one horse that has ever gone wire-to-wire in any race and that horse has done it four times. I would also note that none of the other horses has ever been in front at the first call of any race.

The best horse with a tactical advantage is the closest thing to a sure thing as there is in horse racing.

American Pharoah is obviously the best horse in tomorrow's Belmont Stakes. American Pharoah also has the best early speed. So why am I not telling you that American Pharoah is a cinch?

Well, the Belmont Stakes is not run in a vacuum. It is run as the third race in a series known as the Triple Crown. To win the Triple Crown, a horse must win the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May, the Preakness on the third Saturday in May and the Belmont on the first or second Saturday in June, depending on the calendar.

In 2015, American Pharoah will be the only horse competing in all three legs. And that is the crux of the dilemma.

Everybody knows who the best horse is. Unless jockey Victor Espinoza falls asleep at the start, American Pharoah should assume a clear lead and control the pace of the race. The most likely result is American Pharoah running the other horses off their feet and running away from the chasers in the stretch. "Most likely,'' however, is not "only.''

I want American Pharoah to win. I am picking Materiality to win.

I always root for the story. And the story is the first Triple Crown in 37 years.

It really could be as easy as it looks on paper, but, if it was, Smarty Jones would have won. So would California Chrome.

As the series has evolved, it is no longer fair to the horse trying to win it. Really good horses like Materiality and Frosted can run well in the Derby, skip the Preakness and have the advantage of rest over an even better horse like American Pharoah.

The series does not need to be changed (although spacing out the races more might be an idea whose time has come); it is hard for a reason.

"American Pharoah seems to have a very fluid, easy stride, and doesn't seem to have any weakness to overcome, so it's a question of whether he can deal with the shortened rotation of these races," said Secretariat's owner, Penny Chenery. "We don't train horses to do that these days. It's unusual and we'll just see if he can master his mind around it and do it again."

Steve Cauthen was the last rider to win the Triple Crown when Affirmed beat Alydar three times in 1978, each race closer than the last.

"I specifically remember after winning the Triple Crown back in '78 that there were some people saying the Triple Crown is getting too easy, like we're going to have to make it tougher, which is laughable now," Cauthen said.

Even as the crown has gone unclaimed, we have to remember that some of the aspirants ran winning races, but just did not win. Silver Charm, Real Quiet and Smarty Jones certainly were good enough and would have deserved it. Some combination of fate and race tactics beat them all.

So, if you think American Pharoah can do it, you have to be heartened that Bob Baffert, the same man behind Silver Charm and Real Quiet, trains the horse and has obviously shown he can get a horse to the Belmont Stakes ready to run his absolute best.

"Make sure we all do right by him, you know, because he's a wonderful horse and he could be a once-in-a-lifetime horse for me," Baffert said. "I'm just really enjoying it and that's why I've been appreciating it so much because I never thought I would be going through this again."

Horses run their best when they are comfortable. Materiality was immediately taken out of his comfort zone in the Derby when he broke poorly, got behind a majority of the field and took what can only be described as a sandstorm in his face. Unless you have actually seen the amount of dirt kicked up by the Derby stampede in person from up high, you can't really appreciate its potential effect.

Union Rags, owned by Phyllis and Jamie Wyeth, took all that dirt in the 2012 Derby and came back to win the Belmont Stakes when he was able to get into a comfort zone.

Materiality is the second-fastest horse in this race. I see him racing just behind American Pharoah for the first half of the Belmont Stakes. He came on late to finish sixth in the Derby, but because he will be so much closer and so much more comfortable in the Belmont, I expect a dramatically improved performance.

Frosted, fourth in the Derby, was the only horse to make any kind of a move on the far turn when the Derby is often won. But the top three horses had been setting moderate fractions and Frosted had too much to do and not enough time to do it. I think he is going to run really well tomorrow.

American Pharoah has proved he is better than any horse in this race, but circumstance may work against him in the Belmont Stakes. I am picking Materiality and I really want to be wrong.