Not all drafts are created equal

SIDNEY CROSBY was a sure thing.

So were Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin.

But that doesn't mean they were the norm. In fact, very few players chosen in the NHL draft step out of their teenage years and onto the big stage.

In the past five drafts the Flyers have selected 45 players. Of that group, only six have played with the Flyers - defensemen Joni Pitkanen and Alexandre Picard, forwards Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Stefan Ruzicka and Ryan Potulny. Beyond that, only two appear ready to make their mark - 2006 first-rounder Claude Giroux and 2005 first-rounder Steve Downie, both wingers.

The rest are either gone from the scene or are question marks on the franchise depth charts.

Flyers general manager Paul Holmgren said this week that the biggest factor in this roll of the dice is age.

"We're picking guys, and some of them are 17 years old," he said. "Not only are they physically undeveloped, mentally they're not developed and you don't know how they are going to be physically or mentally 4 or 5 years down the line.

"It used to be that we didn't draft players until they were 20 and that was challenged in court and now we draft young. Our scouting staff does a tremendous job of finding the players and I think we've gotten better over the years, as has everybody else, in getting to know them away from the game, away from the rink, doing different tests, whether it be psychological or physical. But I don't think it's ever going to be an exact science. But we're getting better at narrowing down the potholes."

Perhaps the best example of a player who is taking time developing is Pitkanen. The Flyers traded up to get him with the fourth overall selection in 2002. The day he was drafted he spoke very little English but made it clear he wanted to play right away.

He didn't, spending the next 12 months in Finland. He has just completed his third NHL season and it is clear he still is developing physically and still needs to mature. He struggled last season, playing some games with confidence and others like he was not sure what to do.

He was also a loner, not appearing to mix well socially with the team. There has been a lot of pressure from fans to move him, but Holmgren has remained steadfast in his belief that Pitkanen will become a standout defenseman.

The Flyers nailed several picks in the 2003 draft, taking first-rounders Carter (11th overall) and Richards (24th) along with third-rounders Picard, Ruzicka and Potulny. Carter and Richards came on fast in their first season. While Carter appears to be developing quickly, Richards struggled some last season and lost more than 5 weeks rehabilitating after abdominal surgery.

Still, both players joined the franchise after having had a good amount of success in both junior and international competition and were better positioned from those experiences to develop quicker.

It could be said that the last two drafts have been less fruitful, with only Downie and Giroux appearing to be legitimate prospects. But it would be too early to discount some of the others, including right wing Andreas Nodl and defenseman Michael Ratchuk, both chosen in the second round last year, and Josh Beaulieu, a center chosen in the fifth round in 2005.

All remain good prospects and are developing in the junior and European ranks.

"It all depends on the draft," Holmgren said. "Some years are just deeper. Look at [2003]. That entire draft has a bunch of first-round picks that are playing in the league and playing well from that draft. It's an amazing draft."

That year Pittsburgh goalie Marc-Andre Fleury was first, Carolina center Eric Staal was second, Florida center Nathan Horton was third, Columbus right wing Nikolai Zherdev was fourth, and Buffalo left wing Thomas Vanek was fifth.

That draft also included standout Calgary defenseman Dion Phaneuf, New Jersey left wing Zach Parise, Anaheim center Ryan Getzlaf and right wing Corey Perry, in addition to Carter, Richards and Picard.

By contrast, the next year had Ovechkin and Malkin as the only two standout names, and in 2005 Crosby was the only one to step into the league and turn heads. So far, the two lone contributors from the 2006 draft are Pittsburgh center Jordan Staal and Boston center Phil Kessel.

There are several recent draftees who project to be good players, of which the Flyers have two - Giroux and Nodl. So the Flyers, while not producing an abundance of immediate impact players, have held their own in the most recent drafts.

They go into this weekend's draft with the No. 2 overall pick. But unlike some other years, there aren't any can't-miss picks who would eliminate the guesswork. *