DeSean's place in the WR market
There are two scenarios in which teams around the league will have a chance to acquire DeSean Jackson this offseason.
DeSean's place in the WR market
Sheil Kapadia, Philly.com
There are two scenarios in which teams around the league will have a chance to acquire DeSean Jackson this offseason.
If the Eagles don't franchise Jackson AND don't come to a long-term agreement with him, he'll become an unrestricted free agent.
If the Eagles decide to franchise Jackson, they could still look to trade him. But that would require two things:
1. A potential trade partner meeting the Eagles' asking price, in terms of compensation.
2. A potential trade partner coming to terms on a long-term agreement with Jackson (and Drew Rosenhaus).
In other words, it could happen. But it's not as simple as it sounds.
League sources tell the Daily News' Paul Domowitch that Jackson's opinion of his worth continues to be far different from the Eagles'. So it doesn't look like this situation is going to be resolved any time soon.
An important factor to consider is Jackson's place in the wide receiver market. Teams looking for pass-catching help could have some attractive options this offseason.
RotoWorld.com has a list out of pending free-agent wide receivers. Below is a breakdown of how some of the marquee names stack up statistically, using numbers from the past three seasons.
The columns are: age, receptions per game, yards per game, yards per catch, touchdowns and drop rate, which is a simple metric from Pro Football Focus that measures percentage of catchable balls that were dropped. In other words, the lower the drop rate, the better.
| Age | Rec. | Yds. | YPC | TDs | Drop Rate | |
| DeSean Jackson | 25 | 3.8 | 72.4 | 19.0 | 19 | 13.1% |
| Vincent Jackson | 29 | 3.9 | 70.0 | 17.8 | 21 | 6.9% |
| Dwayne Bowe | 27 | 4.7 |
67.7 |
14.6 |
24 |
11.9% |
| Wes Welker | 30 |
7.4 |
83.7 |
11.4 |
20 |
8.9% |
| Brandon Lloyd | 30 | 4.7 |
76.7 |
16.3 |
16 |
8.3% |
| Marques Colston | 28 | 5.2 |
72.0 |
13.8 |
24 |
8.2% |
| Stevie Johnson | 25 | 4.3 |
56.4 |
13.0 |
17 | 10.1% |
| Reggie Wayne | 33 | 6.0 |
74.6 |
12.5 |
20 |
4.7% |
| Pierre Garcon | 25 | 4.2 |
56.7 |
13.6 |
16 |
10.6% |
I realize there are a lot of numbers here. Let's break them down by category.
AGE
DeSean is the youngest of the group. It feels like he's been with the Eagles forever, but DeSean just turned 25 in December. Everyone on the list above is 30 or younger, except for Wayne. And there are a couple other names that I didn't include, like New Orleans' Robert Meachem (27) and the Giants' Mario Manningham (25).
PRODUCTION
Welker leads the group in catches per game and yards per game, although we have to take quarterback situations into account. While Welker's been catching balls from Tom Brady, Johnson, Lloyd and Bowe have dealt with far accomplished passing partners.
Welker, Lloyd and Wayne have averaged more yards per game than DeSean. Bowe, Vincent Jackson, Colston, DeSean Jackson, Wayne and Lloyd all fall between 67.7 and 76.7 yards per game.
Welker, Wayne and Colston average the most catches per game.
BIG PLAYS
DeSean does the most damage among the group when he catches the ball. Only three of the receivers above have averaged more than 15 yards per catch in the past three seasons: DeSean (19.0), Vincent Jackson (17.8) and Lloyd (16.3). Those are the home run hitters.
HANDS AND DROP RATE
To reiterate, drop rate is simply the percentage of catchable balls that are dropped. DeSean has the worst hands among this group, dropping 13.1 percent of the catchable balls thrown his way in the past three seasons (I wrote more about that in December). In 2011, he had nine drops in the Eagles' first 10 games, but zero drops in the final five.
Vincent Jackson's drop rate was 11.8 percent last season, but overall, he's had excellent hands (6.9 percent).
Bowe, Johnson and Garcon have all had their fair share of issues with drops.
TOUCHDOWNS/RED ZONE
DeSean has just four red-zone touchdowns in the past three seasons, the fewest of any receiver in this group. Welker (41 catches, 15 touchdowns) and Colston (35 catches, 15 touchdowns) have been the best red-zone receivers.
Bowe, (13 RZ TDs), Wayne (13 RZ TDs), Johnson (12 RZ TDs) and Vincent Jackson (11 RZ TDs) have all been far bigger threats in the red zone than DeSean.
As for overall touchdowns, Bowe and Colston (24 apiece) have the most in this group. To be fair, I shuold note that DeSean has had three non-receiving touchdowns in the past three seasons.
WHO WILL BE AVAILABLE?
While none of the wide receivers on the list above are currently under contract for 2012, that could change. Some could be hit with the franchise tag; others could agree to long-term deals with their current teams.
Teams can use the franchise tag between Feb. 20 and March 5. Free agency begins at 4 p.m. on March 13.
Some notes and links on where things stand now with a few of them:
Vincent Jackson wants to stay in San Diego, and the Chargers want to keep him, according to Dan Pompei of the National Football Post. But the two sides would obviously need to agree on terms.
Patriots Owner Robert Kraft has gone on record saying he wants Welker back.
As of Friday, the Bills and Johnson had not had contract talks, according to his agent.
You'd think the Saints and Chiefs, respectively, would want Colston and Bowe back, given their track records, but nothing has been decided in either case.
It's important to keep an eye on how some of these other contract situations play out when considering Jackson's future. Back in August, I made the argument that DeSean was as valuable as Santonio Holmes, but after 2011, the Jets look silly for giving Holmes a five-year, $50M contract with $24M guaranteed.
Vincent Jackson's situation could be of particular interest to DeSean and the Eagles. Both Vincent Jackson and DeSean are big-play receivers, not high-volume guys. Their numbers, in terms of catches, yards and touchdowns are relatively similar. Vincent Jackson (6-5, 241) is much bigger, has better hands is more of a threat in the red zone. DeSean, however, is four years younger and can do damage as a return man (even though he was quiet in that role last season).
If the Eagles decide to part ways with DeSean, they could make a play for one of the other free agent receivers. Or they could try to replace DeSean with a high draft pick.
We are about six weeks away from the start of free agency, but keep an eye on which of the receivers above work out new deals with their respective teams before then. The wide receiver market could look significantly different by the time the Eagles have to decide whether to franchise DeSean.
You can follow me on Twitter or become a fan of Moving the Chains on Facebook.
Sheil, I think Eddie Royal should be on the radar. He was drafted the same year as Desean and his career started out great. But he didn't fit in with the regime change the Broncos made. He's a talented, young WR the Eagles can get at a bargain price.— soulman386- agreed. having watched Royal play up close I think this would be a good move for the Eagles. he is a faster Avant. — coloradoeagle
jackson did better than most scouts thought. BUT they were RIGHT re: attitude/character and size (injuries). NOW WE know what he is... i say trade him. NOT worth the $ nor the problems. bye bye jack!— tfcino1- Not a big DeSean fan but the caliber of the guy who is throwing the ball must also be considered. Our guy (MV) is lightyears behind the guys who are throwing balls to the likes of Welker, Colston, Garcon etc.— jakster
- He opens the field up for all the other offensive players....lose him and we might be 8-8 El cheapo JB will not pull the trigger for a fair contract so he will be gone and the Mailboy will trade down to get a 6th rounder to replace him.....Yup "Completely Unacceptable" Jeffery to all except YOU— nuggett
- The statistics don't measure his impact on the opposing defenses and how they are forced to drop their safetys back so far.— swinger18
- I'd certainly consider letting Jackson go. There's comparable talent out there without the maturity issues of Desean Jackson.— p-diddy
- The only franchise reciever on the list is Desean Jackson. If the Eagles want to try and devalue him so they can lowball him in contract negotiations then that is their fault. Whoever they get to replace him isnt going to have half of his talent. Good luck misers.— Zeru
- His duck rate was not listed. He got hit hard a few times and is now gun-shy. Kiss him g'bye.— jjthree
- I liked the graph, but I feel it needs to be expanded to add two additional, highly relevent collumns: Benchings, and Suspensions.
In the graph above, Steven Jackson seems to offer similar production as DJ, I'd be curious to know his contract stance, and how he's conducted himself.
Attitude, conduct, and maturity may not show up in a graph, but they show up on the field, and are reflected in the Win/Loss collumn.
DeSean's a talented guy, but if this Eagle's season has taught us anything, it's that there's more to winning the game than having the most talented players.
It's time to wish him luck, and move on.— andyd - You might think the Eagles never won a game before Desean came to strecth the field— Muggs
- His lack of maturity makes me cringe but I like how he stretches the field for other players. I say Franchise him and make a trade for someone else like Vincent Jackson. Whatever you do keep him out of the division and the conference if at all possible.— nceagle
- DeSean is not worth Top 10 WR money. Not any day of the year. He might be a Top 5 WR of this free agent crop. That must be what he is talking about...— Clt Philly Fan
- You also have to consider that this team was built around Desean's speed. His value isn't just about his stats. Also, does anyone else see a problem where a team gets a guy with a known propensity for attitude problems, and then screws with his money? Same as TO. Just figure out how to pay him! You can't replace the most dangerous threat in the league. There is only one, we have him, let's keep him!— macd41144
Comment removed.- I'd like to see Eagles making a move for Marques Colstom. We don't have an End Zone target since Terrell Owens left Philly. This is one of the reasons why we had a terrible Red Zone offense. A LB move on free agent, a 1st round LB and Marques Colstom, if the Eagles make these moves i'll tell you: We'll finally won the Super Bowl.
D-Jax isn't the answer for our offense. We have Jeremy Maclin who can make some big plays and good returns.— gustalaydner - I think half his drop rate for last season was due to him hearing footsteps. Ever since he took that crushing hit across the middle, he has been a little shy.— dennismithusa
- Jackson can be an electrifying game breaking receiver at times and a potent deep threat. However, he is a one trick pony. Take away the deep route and he disappears from games. I'd keep him if the price is right, if not use that money on FA linebackers and draft WR high— 09
- Look who his agent is. The same guy will be negotiating a contract for McCoy. The agent obviously doesn't have his client's best interest in mind. No way he should be trying to get top 5 WR money for Jackson when his stats don't support it. McCoy's negotiating is going to be difficult because of the bad dealings his agent has with the team he plays for. If possible take the agent out of it and things will go a lot smoother.— TNEaglesFan
- DJ has no interest in a "fair" contract; he wants long term, top 5 money. Simply put, money is better spent elsewhere!— JBinPA
- When we get a decent QB we can compare our receivers with others. What do you think Welker's numbers would look like with McNabb or Vick throwing to him? What do you think Avant's numbers would look like with Brady throwing to him?— Bama
- It's not going to matter...with his agent, DeSean's head is clouded. Not worth the drama.— Phillyfan666
- If the Eagles don't resign DJax, and they should resign him, they better pick up a free agent with elite speed who can spread the field and they better do it in free agency. They need all their draft picks to fill gapping holes at other positions. Wasting draft picks is why they have the gaping holes at LB and safety and why they had to get free agents at CB and on the DL. Rosenman's track record with high level picks is abysmal.— BLUEBELLION
- We are going to go 8-8 with or without him. Only good thing about next year is that expectations will be be unrealistically high. This year's performance made sure of that. Let him go and save the money for a big, physical possession receiver.— DallasEagle
- DeSean has too many "issues" to warrant top 10 money.
Not the least of which is ... durability.
The players listed above who should hold an interest to the Birds - V. Jackson, Bowe, Colston will likely not be available.
Eddie Royal intrigues.
DeSean, though, is likely gone unless he's prepared to accept significantly less than he thinks he's worth.— FishFryFrank - D-Jax's 'best if used by' date was 5 crossing patterns ago. He's not even the best WR on the Birds, let alone the NFC East.— 2ndNlong
- The Saints have many star players whose contracts have run out. Therefor, I like a big target like Colston but he will be expensive too. Don't trust DeSean staying on the field but you have to pay someone. Regardless of how good Shady is, this is an offense designed to pass.— hawk18
- It's debatable whether to keep DeSean or not, but this is not a guy you pay big money to. Defenses can take him out of the game. You build the offense around other guys, and hopes he stays around. I said in August he was worth $2 million a year. Now, I'd say $1 million. Sure, he can score any time, but how many TDs did he have this year? I won't be heartbroken if he leaves.— armchairGM
- Jackson is a nice novelty to have on offense but cannot be integral part of any offense due to his incosistency in performance and attitude— Eddie Spaghetti
- Simple enough - DJax made roughly 600k this past season and if he were to be franchised next season he would be owed (again roughly) in the 10m range - for one year. Add the two years together and divide by 2 and you get to less than 6m for each year and that's a bargain. In addition he would not be owed a large signing bonus, so it's cut and dry.
Option #2 is to franchise him then what until all the other teams have tied up all of the salary cap funds [resigning their other players] then negotiate a long-term deal with him/Drew.
DJax has mad talent – worth the effort to coin a resolution with him.
Win, Win.
— Laughingaloud123 - Jackson is a game-breaker and spreads the field, but he is also small with multiple concussions. Marques Colson is tough and dependable, and would be an improvement in my opinion. But is it a matter of value. If the Eagles have to spend $10M a year for a top receiver, who do you want - Colson or Jackson? I think it's a no-brainer.— jerseyshorefan
- The Eagles have been downplaying Jackson's role all year. Once a receiver reaches the pro-bowl, and they fear they have to pay him pro-bowl money, he is as good as gone.
Another reason to wish for new ownership...— Lil Ratman - im going to need a new user name.
some stooge team is going to overpay. it we lost dawkins to free agency, there is no doubt jackson is in another uniform next year.— djack10 - too many tds dropped. give that %.— romanT
- I'd like to apply for a job with philly.com. I know I can do a better job than whoever typed this article for posting. There are at least 50 typos in the article. That's a disgrace.— PJL5353
- Not mentioned is blocking, locker room presence, quitting running routes if your play is not called. But better than all of that is Red Zone catches. Macklin not the biggest, Avant not fleet of foot, so if you cover Celek and McCoy you have a shot of seeing Alex and the FG team. Look at VJ red zone production.— oldBird
- In addition to the WR skills, I think Desean's biggest impact is opening the field. I'd attribute a bit of Celek's, Avant's, and McCoy's success to Desean going long.— T
- Goes without saying we "should" sign Jackson. Unfortunately, there is something called the "NFL Salary Cap". This is why GMs make BIG BUCKS...they can see past Friday. McCoy will get, and deserves a BIG payday - given. Herremans is making $2.5/yr with a couple of years left...you want to keep him...think he is gonna want more money playing right tackle? Your want to sign a starting right tackle and move him back to Guard? Maclin has 2 years left....want him back? Want a couple Free-Agent LBs or Jackson Back? With no salary cap, it is a no-brainer.....you sign everyone. Addition by subtraction. Is it better to resign Jackson, go with Maclin and Avant, AND get two quality Starting Free-Agent LBs? This is why you guys that just say "sign him" don't have a clue to the big picture. They have a "plan". It might not be perfect, but this team is competitive come every Sept. You older guys remember the "dark days". Yes, this team is "predictable", but it has been "competitive" every year under Reid. It has been enjoyable to be an Eagles fan watching this team the past 13 years.— Eaglejake53
- Let Jackson go and draft a receiver with one of the first 3 picks. Malcom Floyd from Notre Dame would be a good choice.— MUADDIB
- There is one guy missing from that list: Mike Wallace. Don't make the assumption that the Steelers will be able to sign this guy. They are way over the cap. So if they tender him an offer, any matching team will be giving up a first round selection. So rather than let Desean go for nothing and draft another receiver in the early rounds, why not spend the money and draft pick on the most dangerous WR in the NFL? He's young, proven, with a skill set that many receivers dream of.— beegal99
- In addition, Wallace is looking for about $10 mil a season, which is the same as what Jackson is looking for. Jackson carries with him the attitude, the frail build, the concussion thing. Wallace is a much more accomplished receiver, bigger, same age and just as fast, without the diva attitude.— beegal99
- every nfl PROBLEM has a DREW ROSEHOUS attached to it.— mwright252
- The Eagles already have a corp of receivers in place. They will never go to a super bowl with Vic as their QB. To small, to injury prone, to inaccurate, especially when this team is "Pass happy" even with one of the best running backs in the NFL.— olddog
Follow
Sheil on Twitter. And become
a fan of Moving the Chains on Facebook.
Download our NEW iPhone/Android app for even more Birds
coverage, including app-exclusive videos and analysis. Download it here.
