Eagles' Chip Kelly needs to create a scheme to fit his players

THERE ARE only three scenarios:

1. Chip Kelly was wrong about the kind of talent he needs to run his scheme in the NFL successfully.

2. Kelly was right about the kind of talent he needs, but failed to properly evaluate the talents of the players he acquired to run his scheme this offseason.

3. Kelly was wrong about his scheme all along.

Talk all you want about a fourth scenario, in which Kelly's players return from their bye week and begin playing as he thought they could, catching every ball, nailing every throw, making every block, hitting every hole. Nothing we've seen over the last six weeks suggests it is anything more than theoretical. Which leaves us staring at one unsettling conclusion: Kelly needs to use this week to reinvent himself, and he needs to take a long look in his bike mirror before doing so.

Or, perhaps, he needs to go back to college.

Maybe that sounds rash. A week ago, the Eagles were coming off their two biggest wins of the season, one of them over their chief contender for the division. Kelly's offense had racked up more yards than in any previous two-game stretch since his arrival in the NFL. His defense was playing better than it ever had. One loss to an undefeated team means he's washed up?

Well, not exactly. Truth is, this team still is a long way from dead. A playoff berth isn't the impossibility its record might suggest. The Eagles still control their own destiny, thanks to that win over the Giants and another round of games against all three division foes. When Matt Cassel throws three interceptions and nearly walks out of the Meadowlands with a win, you can't declare anybody dead, or you'd better hold your finger on the pulse for twice as long before you do.

But if Kelly is correct and 10-6 with a playoff loss is the same as 6-10, then these Eagles are already 6-10. The only way that the team we've seen over the last six weeks ends up in uniform in January is if their head coach dreams up a scheme that his players actually can execute. It is now beyond clear that they cannot execute this one, at least not with the consistency needed to succeed in a sport that requires contenders to string together multiple wins over good teams before it grants them a spot in the championship game. Sunday night's loss to Carolina was just the latest evidence that suggests these Eagles are just like last year's Eagles and the Eagles of the year before: just good enough to make you think things might soon come together, not nearly good enough to reward such belief.

Since Kelly's first season, his teams are 9-14 in games against teams with winning records. While that mark actually ranks eighth in the NFL, (only the Steelers, Bengals, Patriots, Broncos and Seahawks have a winning record against winning teams), the Eagles have been outscored by 134 points, which ranks 15th, and they've completed only 59.5 percent of their passes, which ranks 20th. In 2013 and 2014, the Eagles were 5-11 with a minus-104 point differential against teams that went on to make the playoffs. Both of those marks rank 15th in the NFL in those seasons.

Yet this team's identity defies easy quantification. Their kryptonite is one of those know-it-when-you-see-it kind of things. Match these guys up against a good coach and a good defense, and they look as if they've never practiced before. If you can't run the ball consistently, you'd better have a strong intermediate passing game. Thus far, the Eagles have been glaringly deficient in both departments. And that makes you wonder whether something is fundamentally wrong with what Kelly is trying to do out there.

The danger is that he will continue to try to do it, both on the field and on the roster. That latter variable is the one that really makes you think. Take, for example, the evaluation of players. Both Kelly and vice president of personnel Ed Marynowitz have said they grade each player with regard to how he fits into the Eagles' scheme.

"I think the teams that do it the best are getting players that fit their system," Kelly said earlier this year. Marynowitz said the team evaluates "basically the guy's athletic ability to play that specific spot, which is also relative to your system and scheme.

Considering the early returns the Eagles have gotten from the offense that Kelly and his personnel staff cobbled together this offseason, you can't help but wonder whether something is off with their philosophy, either in its conceptualization or its application. What if the curve on which they have been grading is off? Maybe playmakers are playmakers and sometimes you just have to make them fit: or make your scheme fit them.

At the risk of being labeled a revisionist, consider a for-instance: In 2014, Kelly drafted Jordan Matthews when Allen Robinson was still on the board. Later, he took Josh Huff when John Brown was still there. Maybe Matthews and Huff really were the better prospects - this is not an argument that they weren't. But if every team grades wide receivers according to how they fit in their scheme, and the Eagles' scheme prioritizes certain attributes over others, then they'd better be correct about both the validity of both the scheme and the attributes, or they are liable to end up with a bunch of guys who look great in practice and data sets, but can't actually win a one-on-one battle against a different-colored jersey.

Again, that's a pure hypothetical. Matthews has plenty of ability, and Robinson has struggled with drops, too. As for Huff and Brown, well, maybe Brown reallllly fits the Cardinals' scheme. Fits like 64 more catches, seven more touchdowns and 3.4 more yards per catch.

For now, it makes little sense to continue calling the same game plan and expecting a different result. Great coaches find ways to put their players in position to succeed. Kelly is a smart coach. Now, he needs to show he's a good one.