Birds @ the Bye: Looking ahead to the Eagles' next 10 games

After the Eagles' disappointing, 2-4 start, Inquirer beat writers Jeff McLane and Jonathan Tamari look ahead to final 10 games of the regular season.

Can the Eagles still make it to the Super Bowl? A 2-4 start has dampened expectations, but let's remember: The stated goal this season has been a championship. Amazingly, it's still within reach. A lot of things would have to go right, but it can be had. First, the Eagles probably need to win the division to get a playoff berth. But the rest of the division is weak enough that it's possible with a touch of luck. An NFC East crown affords them a home playoff game, and if Michael Vick can find a way to get hot in January, the Eagles have enough talent to play with anybody. Last year's champion, the Packers, barely squeaked into the playoffs but took advantage once they got there. So it's possible. Whether it happens, well, that's why we watch, isn't it?

What does Andy Reid have to do to be back next season? If the Eagles make the playoffs, Big Red is probably safe, even though a first-round exit would continue a bad trend for the Eagles. If the season turns into a five- or six-win disaster, Reid is in trouble, especially considering the talent he has. With only two seasons left on his deal after this one, he can't afford a significant regression. That mushy, seven- to nine-win middle ground is a tougher call. Reid got 10 wins last year and has much more talent this time around, so a step back would be tough to explain. But you also can hear the justifications if the season ends on an upswing: We had no training camp . . . just needed some time together . . . talent finally jelled. If Reid avoids disaster, it says here he gets one more shot.

Will DeSean Jackson get a contract extension? It's funny how the Eagles' poor start has silenced the cries for Jackson to get a contract extension. It's not that the dynamic receiver hasn't performed at a high level so far, it's just that he's done it under the radar. Jackson has 24 catches for 456 yards through six games, numbers that project to career highs of 64 receptions for 1,216 yards. But he has only two touchdowns and the jump-from-your-seat plays that make Jackson so special have been rare. He hasn't really done anything that dictates the Eagles have to give him a new deal right now. November has traditionally been the time when the team has extended its young, promising draftees. But it's starting to look as if the Eagles will wait until the offseason and use the franchise tag on Jackson and instead spend their leftover cash on extending running back LeSean McCoy.

Can Alex Henery make the big kicks? Based on the first six games the answer would be "No." Faced with two fourth-quarter kicks of relative ease against the 49ers, Henery booted both wide right. Since then, the Eagles have protected the rookie. Henery bounced back the following two weeks, connecting on a 35-yard field goal at Buffalo and then two 20-something-yard kicks at Washington. But Reid passed up the chance at a 50-yarder against the Redskins with a 14-point lead when there's almost no doubt he would have tried from that distance had David Akers still been on the team. (Akers, by the way, has already made three kicks of 50 yards or more for the 49ers.) With the weather, shifting the kicks won't get any easier. Henery clearly has the leg. There's some question as to whether he has the nerve.

The Eagles are still loaded with talent. A scan of the roster reveals 12 players with a combined 26 Pro Bowl appearances. There are probably an additional four that could or should make the Pro Bowl roster at season's end. That's a lot of star power, comparatively speaking. So you can't say the Eagles don't have the talent. But that hasn't been the problem. The issue has been mixing and matching the pieces. And so far, Andy Reid and his coaches have only looked puzzled. Still, a team with Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Peters, and Todd Herremans on offense should score at will. And a defense with Trent Cole, Jason Babin, Cullen Jenkins, Nnamdi Asomugha, and Asante Samuel should compensate for mediocre-to-less-than-adequate linebackers and safeties.

Reid's second-half successes. It's their best hope. Reid has fixed it before so there's no reason to believe he won't do so again. In his 12 previous seasons with the Eagles, Reid is a combined 38-38 (.500) before the bye. He is 80-35-1 (.690) after the bye, including a remarkable 12-0 in the first game after a week off in the regular season. If there were ever a team that needed Reid's magic touch following the bye, it's this one. There's very little reason to think he won't at least finish strong. Only once has Reid had a losing mark after the bye, and that was during the Terrell Owens-blowout, Donovan McNabb-sports-hernia, Mike McMahon-backup season of 2005. Of increasing concern, however, is that Reid isn't as dominating down the stretch as he once was. From 1999 to 2004 his teams were 43-13 (.768) after the bye. Since then, they are 37-25-1 (.595).

Schematic changes made before the break. Reid usually likes to take the week off to tweak his team. Instead, with the Washington game before the bye being a must-win, the coach made a couple of necessary changes. For one, Reid tightened up the wide-nine defense on obvious run downs. Sometimes both defensive ends were lined up in the six technique, sometimes just one. But the overall effect was one that allowed the defensive tackles to help with stopping the run and the linebackers and safeties to roam free and pursue. On offense, Reid and offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg mixed in a number of three-step drops and quick throws for Vick that neutralized the Redskins' blitz and protected the quarterback. They also relied more on LeSean McCoy, who has ascended into the discussion of the best running backs in the league. It's going to be hard for the normally aggressive Reid and Mornhinweg, however, to always stay in a lower gear.

The defense. Yes, it managed to stuff the Redskins and improved against the run. But even if they're lucky, the Eagles only get to face Rex Grossman one more time, and before too long offenses will adjust to the Birds' modifications. Then the ball will be back in Juan Castillo's court, and it took him four losses to fix an obvious weakness at the start of the year. After six games as a defensive coach, will he react faster this time? And does anyone really feel confident that this group can protect a fourth-quarter lead against a competent opponent? They still rank near the bottom of the NFL in run defense and in the red zone.

They have no margin for error. The Eagles are still alive, but they have a long, long way to go and will need luck to even reach the playoffs. While the first-place Giants are only two games ahead in the NFC East, the Birds aren't only chasing them. They also have to pass the Cowboys and Redskins, who will also be looking to capitalize on any Giants stumbles. Wild card? After the division leaders, seven NFC teams have better winning percentages. The Eagles have no margin for error and can't afford to lose a trap game or fumble away a likely victory or just have a bounce go the wrong way at the wrong time. How many teams get that lucky? Only one or two bad losses could knock the Eagles out.

Reid has lost his late-season touch. The coach has a .714 winning percentage in December, but he's been trending the wrong way late in recent seasons. The Eagles collapsed with awful late-season losses each of the last two years before falling in the first round of the playoffs. They have either missed the postseason or gone out without a win in three of the last four years and four of the last six. It would be a huge change for the team to suddenly go on a sustained postseason run.

Oct. 30 vs. Dallas, 8:20 p.m. The good feeling finally generated by a win over Washington would quickly evaporate if the Eagles drop this game to another division rival. We know Reid is 12-0 after the bye. He very much needs to extend that streak to continue the positive momentum started with the Redskins victory. The Eagles' best hope of making the playoffs is winning the NFC East, so beating division rivals is crucial.

Nov. 7 vs. Chicago, 8:30 p.m. If it seems like the Eagles play the Bears every year, that's because they do. Well, at least for the last five seasons. Chicago has won three of the previous four, including a 31-26 victory last season that was famous for DeSean Jackson's postgame pout after Reid called out the young receiver. Like the Eagles, 3-3 Chicago is off to a disappointing start following an NFC championship appearance.

Nov. 13 vs. Arizona, 1 p.m. McNabb Bowl it ain't. For the second straight year a former Eagles starter returns to the Linc, though the history with Kevin Kolb doesn't quite stretch so far back. Kolb never said a bad word about Reid when he was here, but he can put a hurt on his old coach if he comes in and gets a win. The Eagles need to win two of these three straight games at home to realistically give themselves a shot at the playoffs.

Nov. 20 at N.Y. Giants, 8:20 p.m. The Eagles return to the scene of the crime, where Jackson and his mates stole one from the Giants in last December's Miracle at the New Meadowlands. While New York will be looking for payback, the Eagles, too, have a score to settle after they coughed up a September loss to the Giants.

Nov. 27 vs. New England, 4:15 p.m. The Eagles had better have any scheme issues worked out by this point, when they face evil genius Bill Belichick. Reid and Belichick are buddies from their days sitting next to each other in media relations class, but don't expect any mercy from the Pats. As long as Tom Brady is upright, expect the Patriots to be favored.

Dec. 1 at Seattle, 8:20 p.m. Last season's Thursday night game against the Texans proved to be a momentum changer for the Eagles coming off the loss at Chicago. But that contest was at home. This year, the Eagles will fly to the West Coast just two days after their loss - uh, game - against the Patriots. The good news: The Seahawks are dreadful.

Dec. 11 at Miami, 1 p.m. Even if things go horribly wrong after the bye, this trip to Miami should give Eagles fans a glimpse of how good they have it. Miami is 0-5 and looks hopeless at the moment. By the time the Eagles get there, the only real question for the Dolphins will be if they are bad enough to get the top pick in the draft. Even with a disappointing start, the Eagles haven't fallen to anywhere near the same depths.

Dec. 18 vs. N.Y. Jets, 4:15 p.m. The Eagles have never lost to the Jets. That's right. The Birds have won all eight meetings between the franchises. But that means little now. New York was a sexy pick by many, including their coach, to reach the Super Bowl out of the AFC, including its own coach. But a slow start could have severely damaged the chances of Rex Ryan's charges of landing in Indianapolis. Or the Jets may have turned the ship around by then, which could spell trouble for the Eagles.

Dec. 24 at Dallas, 4:15 p.m. This Christmas Eve game could be massive in the race for the playoffs - or it could mean absolutely nothing. Both the Eagles and Cowboys have the ability to climb into contention, but each have made enough mistakes that they could both be hopelessly out of the picture by the time Santa starts his rounds. If either team is still alive, expect the other to try to ruin their rivals' holiday.

Jan. 1 vs. Washington, 1 p.m. Whether the Eagles are in the playoff hunt or not, this game should have significant meaning. A win could give Reid his 10th playoff berth in 13 seasons and signal his return for next season. A loss could be the final shovel of dirt on the coach's grave. Or maybe the outcome means very little in terms of Reid's job security.