Villanova has to weigh many costs of move to Big East football

A snapshot impression of Villanova University - rich Main Line school, right? They play some hoops?

Not so fast on the rich part. Add up these facts: Drexel has a larger endowment than Villanova. If Villanova moves up to the top rung of football, playing in the Big East, it would have had the smallest endowment of any private school in I-A football, and the second-smallest endowment of any football school in the conference - less than a third of the endowment of Texas Christian, which just came aboard the Big East.

Now, nobody needs to hold a telethon for Villanova. Its endowment is over $300 million, with the stock market doing better. And endowment obviously is only one part of the equation, a safety net that you don't necessarily want to touch. But here's what should be understood about this football decision: As an institution, Villanova can't afford to get it wrong.

"You better have plenty of money - because to get it going, it's really, really, really expensive," said an athletic director at an established BCS program. "You're coming from behind. All these schools have had Division I football for 50, 60, 70 years."

Villanova's decision, which should come at its next board of trustees meeting in April, is at its core a financial decision. The school already has paid out over $4 million a year lately to play I-AA football. What's the price tag for I-A?

The expectation is that if Villanova moves up, it will cost a cumulative $5 million during the three years (2011-13) before the school starts collecting Big East revenues. After that, one working estimate floating around is that Villanova would have to spend about $1 million more than it has been paying for the lower level, even with their share of Big East revenues. Since the Big East's TV deal is still to be negotiated, that figure isn't definitive. There is no definitive number.

"The discussion they have to be having [is] 'Where do the revenues come from, not just to get there, but to sustain it?' " said Karen Weaver, the athletic director at Penn State-Abington, who has written extensively on college athletic expenditures.

Villanova's plans involve playing at PPL Park in Chester. There are no plans to upgrade Villanova Stadium. However, in addition to adding scholarships and raising coaching salaries, a state-of-the-art football training facility needs to be built. Title IX issues have to be addressed. Money has to be raised.

Villanova has been checking with potential donors. The word is that some soft commitments have been made, some fairly large ones, but no blockbuster donor has stepped forward yet. There is no name for a potential training facility yet.

A consulting firm hired by Villanova also has looked at potential attendance. Villanova draws 7,000 or 8,000 for a strong I-AA team. Can the Wildcats double or almost triple that in the Big East playing at PPL? Surveys have been done working with different price points. The results, according to one Villanova source, were "pretty positive . . . there is a substantive demand for this product." By that, the source said, there is probably "sufficient interest among our core constituents" to remove attendance as an area of concern.

In an article in Change, a higher education magazine, Weaver pointed to a 2010 study from the Center for College Affordability that found the biggest conferences with the biggest TV deals used substantially less institutional funds to subsidize athletics than schools such as Conference USA and the Mid-American Conference. However, the Big East is more of a middle-ground league. Its market isn't necessarily the right one for a Big East Network, its version of the Big Ten Network, which has proved to be a big money-maker.

Nobody is predicting that Villanova football will have the same kind of national brand as Villanova basketball.

"I just can't see Villanova becoming a football power without spending a ton of money," said Richard Vedder of the Center for College Affordability. "Maybe if they spend $200 or $300 million over the next 10 years, they could do it, but I can't see that happening."

This bears repeating: At its heart, this isn't a football decision. Nobody is trying to turn it into a "sky is falling" argument but protecting Villanova basketball as a national brand - making sure that brand isn't marginalized - is never far from anybody's thoughts. The Big East schools that play I-A football are best positioned for future basketball success. They have more success now.

But what is that basketball brand worth to Villanova? Not just Villanova athletics, but Villanova as a university. (Quick aside: This week, it's worth more than the Villanova Law School brand).

"I guess it's up to them, whether protecting the Villanova basketball brand is worth the cost of football," said Matthew Denhart of the Center for College Affordability. "Just purely the cost-benefit of just looking at football, it would not pass that test."