Temple closing in on NCAA berth, but not quite yet

AS THINGS STAND right now, Temple would be the fourth seed in next week's American Athletic Conference Tournament. The Owls would play Connecticut at 2 p.m. on Friday, March 13, in a very dangerous quarterfinal game.

Write that down, but in pencil. Or put it on SnapChat, because it's far from concrete.

Four teams are fighting for the crucial third, fourth and fifth positions in the AAC standings: Cincinnati (11-5), Temple (11-5), Connecticut (10-6), Memphis (9-7). Three of these four will get a bye for the first round of next week's tournament. The other will play an opening-round game against Houston or Florida (both 2-14).

Tulsa (14-2) and SMU (14-3) will finish 1-2, though the precise order of that is still to be determined, as well.

All four teams in Temple's cluster have two games remaining, so things are extremely fluid. A win tomorrow night at East Carolina (6-10) - or a Memphis loss at UConn - will clinch the bye for the Owls, which is Step 1.

Since the tournament is being held in Hartford, Conn., avoiding Connecticut in that quarterfinal game is a good idea. But that will require some help, starting with Tulsa beating Cincinnati tonight and Connecticut losing that game to Memphis tomorrow. The Owls wrap up their regular season hosting Connecticut on Saturday (2 p.m., ESPN2). A victory there likely would be Step 2 for Temple: no UConn in the quarters.

This all leads to Step 3: the Big Dance.

ESPN's Joe Lunardi yesterday had the Owls (20-9 overall) as a very precarious 11th seed, and Jerry Palm, of CBS Sports, had the Owls out of the NCAA Tournament. But if Temple wins its final two regular-season games and at least one in the conference tournament, it should be in the conversation for an NCAA at-large bid. Two wins in the conference tournament should clinch it.

Of course, a Temple loss to East Carolina tomorrow throws a giant hand grenade into all of these scenarios. Thank heaven for erasers and SnapChat.