Jensen: Is March Madness in the Temple forecast?

Just before 2 o'clock Sunday afternoon, the local college basketball season got a little more interesting - about the time Temple guard Devin Coleman hit the last of his seven three-pointers. Seven tries, seven makes.

A victory over previously undefeated Southern Methodist meant the Owls might see a path to the NCAA tournament. Maybe the narrowest of paths, right at cliff's edge, but there it is, right under foot.

When the season began it didn't appear that three local schools would move into February with at least a shot at March Madness. Villanova, sure. The Wildcats are about what you thought they'd be, in the mix for a very high seed - not invincible but tough for most teams to handle.

The completely unforeseen team is St. Joseph's. (Call them the Trump team? No, that's not right at all.) Nobody saw it coming, yet right from the start the Hawks have passed every eye test. Phil Martelli talks about everybody keeping their heads down, not making the potentially fatal mistake of counting games as wins. Right now, St. Joe's is the definition of a bubble team. You might think 16-3 would be better than that, with 68 schools making the NCAAs. But St. Joe's still needs a win or two against the other NCAA contenders from the Atlantic Ten.

The Hawks let a home game against Virginia Commonwealth get away, basically at the foul line. That makes upcoming games at George Washington (Feb. 10) and home against Dayton (Feb. 17) bigger than the rest.

The Hawks have a dozen regular-season games plus the A-10 tournament to keep making their case, but you can't pencil in too many automatic W's among the dozen. This should stay interesting right into Brooklyn, home of the postseason tournament.

The last couple of seasons, Southern Methodist and Temple basically have taken turns keeping the other out of the NCAA tournament. This season is different because SMU has kept SMU out, on probation. Nevertheless, SMU's resumé counts for opponents, no asterisk, so Temple will want Larry Brown's Mustangs to keep running the rest of the table. All sorts of big ones loom ahead for the Owls, including a pair against Tulsa, a road trip that includes Houston, and a huge Liacouras Center Feb. 17 date with Villanova.

It was easy to mark Temple as the most unpredictable of teams much of this season. Also wrong. If you draw a line through a home clunker against Houston, when the Owls just didn't show up, the rest of the season has looked fairly predictable. Temple has battled, and if some jumpers go in things often turn out all right.

As important as big wins, 11-7 Temple, 5-2 in the American Athletic Conference, absolutely has to avoid bad losses to prove it belongs up at the top of the standings, that SMU was no fluke. No great mystery to the process.

There is your mid-conference-season bracketology report. You want percentage odds of making the tournament?

Villanova: 99.94 percent.

St. Joe's: 57.1 percent.

Temple: 15.4 percent.

mjensen@phillynews.com

@jensenoffcampus