Villanova got lucky with conference moves

Villanova is on a lucky roll.

After much study and deliberation, Villanova had concluded two years ago that its best future was in playing big-time football, or the closest equivalent it could attain. However, a Big East invite fell out of the school's grasp, and wouldn't necessarily have been 'Nova's best future.

What is unfolding now may be as good as it can get, playing all sports but football in a league of similar schools, many with similar basketball aspirations and accomplishments, still calling themselves the Big East, still (almost definitely) playing the conference tournament at Madison Square Garden, still profiting handsomely because a new sports network happens to be starting up right now funded by Rupert Murdoch's riches.

Expect all that to be announced this week, possibly as soon as Wednesday.

So if Villanova and the rest of the "Catholic Seven" are leaving the Big East but also becoming the new Big East, then there have to be losers, right?

Maybe Temple?

Not so fast, not in the short-term. And it's possible that in the long-term, the Owls could turn out to be the biggest winners in town. It's just impossible to know yet since college realignment is far from done.

Negotiations in the divorce agreement between the two sides of the Big East are finishing up. Both Villanova and Temple are walking away with a little money. For 'Nova, it will basically be the cash the school had earned from previous NCAA appearances.

Temple, which hasn't played any sports in the league yet except for football, still gets a low seven-figure parting gift from the divvying up of NCAA units and exit fees left behind mostly by Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Louisville and West Virginia. (Huge payouts, reportedly more than $25 million, are going to Connecticut, Cincinnati and South Florida.)

For the Owls, the long game may be determined by one factor . . . the ACC Network.

If the Atlantic Coast Conference does start a network and is able to replicate the success of the cash cow that is the Big Ten Network, then Temple's future could be greatly impacted, and Villanova will be wondering what could have been.

Right now, top-level realignment is in a holding pattern, waiting to see if Maryland is forced to pay a $50 million exit fee to leave the ACC for the Big Ten.

If that fee is greatly reduced, look for the next wave of realignment to start up. The rumors: Florida State and Clemson could go to the Big 12 . . . Georgia Tech and Virginia could go to the Big Ten . . . the Southeastern Conference may look to grab a couple of ACC teams.

As replacements, expect the ACC to finally take in Connecticut and Cincinnati. If more replacements are needed, Temple will be on the list.

That's where the ACC Network comes in. Everyone realizes the Big Ten didn't take Rutgers for performance reasons or even to deliver ratings in the New York market. Right now, the Big Ten Network gets 41 cents a month from every home it is in. That figure may go as high as a dollar. And that's why the Big Ten took Rutgers (and Maryland) - to get in more homes. That's the only reason.

The ACC hasn't added schools with a similar mind-set. Performance did matter when it took Louisville. Basketball performance certainly mattered in taking Syracuse and Pittsburgh.

If the ACC Network is a success, the league's expansion model changes. You think it will be interested in all the homes in the Philadelphia market? Of course. Even at 25 cents a month, the answer has to be yes.

Villanova was aware of all that, but knew it couldn't ramp up its football program on hope, so it put that thought aside and chased a more natural fit, with Georgetown, Marquette, and the others, and soon Xavier, Butler - either 10 or 12 schools overall.

Temple is in a middle ground right now. If UConn and Cincy were to stay, the Owls would be in a good basketball league, anchored by those three and Memphis. Worst case, UConn and Cincinnati go to the ACC and the Owls are left with the remnants of Conference USA.

That still offers Temple a little more money than combined membership in the Atlantic Ten and Mid-American Conference. It's just not a home run. (It would have been a strikeout for Villanova, since the school would have needed to invest tens of millions of dollars to move up.)

Of course, what is a home run in college sports these days? Making more money usually means you spend more money, especially in big-time football. So we'll go back to our original premise.

Villanova got lucky.