Top horse trainer at Parx is among nation's best

JUAN CARLOS GUERRERO arrived from Mexico when he was 14, hoping to get an education. He ended up at the race track. In the next quarter-century, he got a doctorate in horse.

In 2010 and 2011, the trainer has put up unprecedented numbers at Parx Racing, winning with 40 percent of his starters.

This being horse racing, nobody puts up those kinds of numbers without significant skepticism. The assumption is that Guerrero must have some kind of pharmaceutical edge. The problem with assumptions, of course, is that they are not facts.

If you trace the arc of his career, you can see it. Well, you couldn't see this, but you could see the upward mobility. After a decade of just trying to survive, Guerrero started to win more consistently when the 2000s began. From 2007 to 2009, he won with more than 21 percent of his starters.

So what changed in 2010 when he started 290 horses and won 115 times. So far this year, the trainer is 83-for-205 at Parx, including winning the second race yesterday with Fire Eater.

"It seems like every trainer has his chance," Guerrero said. "This is my turn. This is my chance."

That opportunity has extended through an 18-month roll, despite the skeptics. During an hourlong talk at the track last week, no questions went unanswered or avoided.

"Better horses, more aggressive in the entries," Guerrero, 40, said, explaining his success. "The purse is $25,000 for a $5,000 [claiming] race. If you lose them, you make $15,000 right off the top [or 60 percent of the purse] and you can go get another one."

It is not that simple, of course. But nobody understands how to play the game at Parx right now better than Guerrero. When the purses blew up, fueled by the introduction of slot machines in late 2006, he was ready to put all those years of education to work.

One of his horses might win two consecutive mid-priced claiming races. Next time, he is likely to dramatically drop the horse in claiming price. Other trainers don't know what to do. Do they put in a claim? Does the horse have problems? Is Guerrero trying to steal a purse?

The purse structure gives a smart, aggressive trainer the opportunity to take what would have been risks 5 years ago. Now, they are the way to a very high winning percentage.

"Sometimes, you play with people's minds by dropping them down," Guerrero said. "You keep them wondering which one is the good one and which one is just OK."

Guerrero had 14 horses in 2009. He has 60 now. He could have 100 or more.

His phone does not stop ringing. The present owners want more horses. New owners want to get into the barn.

"I started winning, they love my percentage and they just want to come in the barn," Guerrero said.

So what's the secret? According to Guerrero, there is no one secret. It's everything he has learned, the purse structure, the new owners and hard work.

He thinks the banning of steroids has helped him and hurt others. He has a brand new ice machine. His horses stand in ice to soothe their legs.

"You have to work on their legs now," Guerrero said.

Still, 40 percent in a sport where 25 percent is terrific?

That he is even better first time after a claim, winning with more than 50 percent of those horses, inspires envy, jealousy and suspicion.

What is he looking for?

He's looking for horses that once were able to win at a higher level and the potential to do it again.

"If a horse runs 80 Beyer [speed figures] and then went down to the 60s, 70s, that's what I like to see," Guerrero said. "When I put all my work into the horse, I know that he is going to be able to take my training. They get better with me so I want to make sure the numbers are there so the horse can get better. If the numbers are not there, you can't make them run. Get one of those old-timers, make them feel better, fix them up a little bit, make them happy, they come back and run those numbers again."

A review of the 130 horses the trainer has had in his barn the last 2 years, with special attention to the recent claims, backs up his theory. He gets those horses with back numbers and, after a little time in his barn, gets them back to those numbers again.

There is a clear giveaway for claiming trainers using illegal substances. When they claim a horse, run him back quickly and improve a horse's number dramatically, that is the sign.

Guerrero's claims rarely run back quickly. They get a little time and then they come out running.

According to the trainer, his only positive drug test came 5 months ago when a muscle relaxant was detected in one of his horses. That is very minor stuff. He paid a $1,000 fine.

There have been a few eyebrow-raisers. All Accounted For had done very little until Guerrero claimed him in April. Two months later, the horse blew away a field of maidens.

"My owner picked him," Guerrero said.

The horse had been running longer races. The owner thought he would run well in shorter races. So they ran him shorter.

I Ain't Lyin' had shown some promise, but then ran terribly the day Guerrero claimed her last year. Five weeks later, she broke her maiden by 16 3/4 lengths.

"I thought she was very fast," Guerrero said. "We train her our way. First time we ran her, she blew [away] the clock. I thought I had a stake horse."

She was good, but she wasn't that good. She will be seen for less than he claimed her for soon.

Every horse has a story.

Santorini Moon really has a story. The horse had not raced for a year when she was entered in a $12,500 maiden-claiming race on Jan. 2. That was down 50 percent from the previous January. It really looked like something might be wrong. Guerrero said he knew better.

"I clock just about every horse in the morning to keep my brain fresh," he said. "I clocked this horse in 59 and 2 [59 2/5 seconds for 5 furlongs]. I looked at my owner and said, 'Did you see that?' ''

He said he started watching the horse every day. He figured out who she was. When she was entered for $12,500, he knew she did not have any problems. She won on Jan. 2 by 11 1/2 lengths. And he claimed her.

"And the rest is history," Guerrero said.

It is, indeed.

Santorini Moon has raced six times since the claim with four wins and two seconds.

Did the claim go down exactly as he said? Did he make an educated guess? Did Guerrero have inside information on the horse? Or did he just outsmart everybody, including the trainer who was pretty clearly trying to get his filly in a spot where she could not lose?

This being the race track, there are more than a few theories. The bottom line is that Guerrero knew something and took advantage of it. There are no rules against that.

Guerrero lives with his condition book, finding the right spots for his horses. Very few of them are entered where they can't win.

His memory for horses is uncanny. He remembers their attributes and their problems. He sees things once and rarely forgets.

"I think that's one of my gifts," Guerrero said. "I can see a horse in the paddock one time or in the morning training one time. It's like I take a picture. It goes right into my head. I look for a marking in an unusual place."

If you are looking to make money betting on the trainer, don't expect it to be easy. Not anymore. When one of his horses isn't odds-on, it's an upset.

"I go from teeth to feet to backs and we have a program now," Guerrero said. "I let them talk to me. Once I see they are ready, I start to work them."

Guerrero started at the bottom, walking horses, grooming them. He was a foreman for Steve Klesaris. Worked for Mark Reid and Danny Lopez. Got his trainer's license 20 years ago.

"Everybody told me I would never make it," Guerrero said.

And they were right for a long time.

In 1991, he won two races. In 1998, he won one race.

"I struggled for about 10 years with cheap horses," Guerrero said. "Then I started doing good and then I lost everything. I got back and then I lost everything again. I don't remember his name, but this old man one time told me, 'You are doing well, how old are you?'

"I told him I was 25. I was doing great. He said, 'I hate to tell you, but you are so young you are going to hit bottom again.' ''

He was right. Two years later, the trainer was on a farm with two or three horses, could barely pay his bills, gained 50 pounds.

"I was done," Guerrero said.

Then he lost the 50 pounds, started working harder and smarter, paying attention to everything.

"I learned the hard way," he said. "I starved quite a few times."

The trainer has been at Parx for 15 years, working for others and himself.

"I try not to be a superman," he said.

He talks to everybody. He watched Scott Lake when he was winning all those races, how he did it. He paid very close attention to the trainers who were winning most of the races.

There are more than a few trainers with great percentages in 2011. In fact, Tony Dutrow, with far fewer horses, is winning with 39 percent of his starters at Parx. Nationally, Mike Mitchell is at 34 percent, followed by Jamie Ness, Tom Amoss and Mike Pino (33 percent), and Bob Baffert and Michael Hushion (32 percent).

Guerrero is just 4-for-29 away from Parx in 2011 so he is at 37 percent overall. The trainer said that is because he is running his best horses at Parx for the bigger purses. But he just started a barn at Delaware Park and expects that he will start winning there soon enough.

"I watch other good trainers and when they get hot, they start killing everybody," Guerrero said.

Just like Guerrero now.

The nice house in Medford, N.J., has become a bigger house in Williamstown, N.J. The trainer makes the hour drive each way every day so his wife, Lisa, is close to her work and their young daughters - Isabella, 7, and Julianna, 4 - can go to a nearby Catholic school. If the trainer continues winning, he figures his wife won't need to work much longer.

So how does he do it?

"There is no miracle drug," Guerrero assured. "They test too much."

Whatever it is, Carlos Guerrero has figured it out. It is definitely his time.