Morning Report: Sizing up the Eagles’ schedule

This time, I'm going to go with my first instincts.

Last spring, when the Eagles' schedule was released, one of the fawning media sycophants who violate all professional ethics by rooting for the team sent me a crowing e-mail.

"Tell me they can't go 13-3 against that schedule," he said.

After looking over the games, I replied that I thought they'd be 8-8 and "would have to beat Buffalo in the final game just to get to 8-8."

Months later, reeling under the taunts of fans and colleagues, I was weak enough to reconsider. The Eagles, I wrote, would go 9-7 and had a chance to be 10-6.

Foolish lad. This time I'm going with my first instincts, which tell me 7-9. Tops.

And even that record is not locked in. To get to seven wins, the Eagles would have to earn a rare victory on opening day and a rare win the week before the bye on the road. So 5-11 is not out of the question.

But enough philosophizing. Let's go week by week.

Game 1. St. Louis (3-13 and last in the NFC West in 2007). The Eagles are only 3-8 in their last 11 season openers, including 3-6 under Andy Reid. But they would have to gag especially loudly to lose this one. If they should happen to find a way to lose here, 2008 will be a very looooong year. Pick: win (1-0).

Game 2. At Dallas (13-13, NFC East champs). Pacman Jones will be joining Tony, Jessica, T.O. and the 'Boys. Pick: loss (1-1).

Game 3. Pittsburgh (10-6, AFC North champs). The first instinct here is to say "loss." But Pittsburgh has not won in Philadelphia since 1979, when Chuck Noll beat Dick Vermeil, 17-14. Will Mike Tomlin succumb to the Philly Curse? Nah. Pick: loss (1-2).

Game 4. At Chicago (7-9, last in the NFC North). This is the first of the season's toss-up games, matching teams that went from first to last after losing Super Bowls. The Bears have no quarterback and major problems on the offensive line. Pick: it's a vast stretch, but a win (2-2).

Game 5. Washington (9-7, wild-card team). For the Eagles to have any kind of competitive season, this is a must win. The Redskins won their last four games in 2007, including wins over the Giants and Cowboys. Whether that will continue under new coach Jim Zorn is unknown. Pick: win (3-2).

Game 6. At San Francisco (5-11, third in the NFC West). Normally, this would have "W" written all over it. But it's the week before the break and once again history comes into play. The Eagles have lost a staggering six times in their last seven games played the week before the bye. But Morning Report is in a generous mood. Pick: win (4-2).

(Note: If the Eagles play to form and lose the opener and the week before the bye, that record is 2-4 and fans are waiting for the 76ers to start.)

Game 7. Atlanta (4-12, last in the NFC South). The Eagles have won every game after a break in Andy Reid's career and, with Atlanta starting over under new coach Mike Smith (no, I had never heard of him, either), this should play to form. Pick: win (5-2).

Game 8: At Seattle (10-6, NFC West champs). It is Mike Holmgren's last chance to make a Super Bowl run before he retires. Pick: loss (5-3).

Game 9: New York Giants (10-6, wild card, Super Bowl champs). OK, we all agree that Eli Manning's a fraud, that he played way over his head in the playoffs and David Tyree's catch was a miracle that won't be repeated in this century. They're still better than the Eagles. Pick: loss (5-4).

Game 10: At Cincinnati (7-9, third in the AFC North). Despite Carson Palmer's courageous prediction of a 16-0 season, this is a troubled franchise. Especially at wide receiver, which tends to negate Palmer's skills. But the Eagles have unaccountable troubles with AFC teams on the road. Pick: loss (5-5).

Game 11: At Baltimore (5-11, last in the AFC North). The Ravens will have a new coach (former Eagles special-teams guru John Harbaugh) and a new quarterback (whomever they draft), hardly an auspicious combination. Pick: win (6-5).

Game 12: Arizona (8-8, second in the NFC West). This is Ken Whisenhunt's second go-round with Matt Leinart and Larry Fitzgerald. The Cardinals actually seem to be going in the right direction. Pick: loss (6-6).

Game 13: At New York Giants. If the Eagles are going to pull an upset and have a winning season, this might be the place. The Giants will be at Washington the previous week and at Dallas the next week, so the Eagles might sneak into town unseen. Nah. Pick: loss (6-7).

Game 14: Cleveland (10-6, second in the AFC North). The Browns found quarterback Derek Anderson last season and teamed him with running back Jamal Lewis for a near-miss playoff run. But Cleveland's schedule was one of the easiest in football. In 2008, it's among the toughest, with 10 games against teams that had .500 records or better last fall. Pick: win (7-7).

Game 15: At Washington. This is another game the Eagles need to win to make the playoffs. But it's Washington's only home game in the season's final month and looks too tough. Pick: loss (7-8).

Game 16: Dallas. If the Boys have locked up a playoff bye and rest Tony, T.O., and Pacman, maybe. Pick: loss (7-9).

In summary, the Birds have a chance to have a winning season but seem much more likely to miss the playoffs for the third time in four years since making the Super Bowl.